AI & Tech Prediction Markets

Will humanity wipe out AI?

9.92%

Market YES

90%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 16.42% +6.5 pts

40/100

The market indicates a low probability of humanity wiping out AI.

Nvidia will compete at the foundation layer by Jan 1, 2028

49.39%

Market YES

51%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 55.89% +6.5 pts

40/100

Market shows a near-even split on Nvidia's competition status by 2028.

Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027

34.97%

Market YES

65%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 37.5% +6.5 pts

55/100

The market suggests a low likelihood of countries banning advanced AI by 2027.

Will any major Hollywood film released before 2027 be entirely AI-generated?

14.16%

Market YES

86%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $3K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 37.5% +6.5 pts

55/100

The market leans towards no major Hollywood film being fully AI-generated by 2027.

OpenAI images have a useful and hard to remove watermark, by mid 2026

27.84%

Market YES

72%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 43.32% +6.5 pts

50/100

Market leans towards OpenAI images lacking a strong watermark by mid-2026.

Will OpenAI cease to exist before turning a profit?

48%

Market YES

52%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 54.5% +6.5 pts

45/100

Market shows a near split on OpenAI's future profitability.

Will OpenAI pause capabilities R&D voluntarily before 2027?

13.23%

Market YES

87%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 19.73% +6.5 pts

55/100

The market indicates a low probability of OpenAI pausing R&D before 2027.

Will Elon Musk's Tesla release a super long-term battery or breakthrough energy technology that lasts months or years wi

7.53%

Market YES

92%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 14.03% +6.5 pts

50/100

Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.

Will there be a robot uprising by 2035?

9.8%

Market YES

90%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 16.3% +6.5 pts

45/100

Low probability of a robot uprising by 2035 according to current market data.

Will any Qwen 3.5 model beat Gemini 3 Pro's Artificial Analysis intelligence score by the end of March?

9.86%

Market YES

90%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 15.36% +5.5 pts

55/100

Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.

Will I get a job at an AI lab within before April 2026?

14%

Market YES

86%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 19.5% +5.5 pts

60/100

Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 60/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.

Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $390-$395 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 9 – Mar 13?

14%

Market YES

86%

Market NO

Polymarket

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 19.5% +5.5 pts

55/100

Market indicates low likelihood of Tesla closing at $390-$395 next week.

Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $420-$425 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 9 – Mar 13?

10.1%

Market YES

90%

Market NO

Polymarket

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 15.6% +5.5 pts

55/100

Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.

Will ARC AGI 3 be easy for humans and hard for AI?

61.98%

Market YES

38%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $6K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 73.64% -5 pts

55/100

The market strongly favors ARC AGI 3 being easy for humans and hard for AI.

Will Claude Code support AGENTS.md in 2026?

74%

Market YES

26%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $2K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 58.97% -5 pts

55/100

Market indicates a strong likelihood of Claude Code supporting AGENTS.md in 2026.

Will Kanye release BULLY by April 3?

99.95%

Market YES

0%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $241K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 64.8% -5 pts

60/100

Market indicates a high likelihood of Kanye releasing BULLY by April 3.

OpenAI and Anthropic will both hit their 2026 revenue goals in 2026

76.05%

Market YES

24%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $1K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 68.54% -5 pts

55/100

Market indicates a strong belief both companies will meet 2026 revenue goals.

Will I find AI to negatively impact my job opportunities as a coder by 2032?

90.82%

Market YES

9%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $4K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 85.82% -5 pts

50/100

High probability of AI negatively impacting coding job opportunities by 2032.

Will Apple announce a foldable iPhone by the end of 2026?

75.37%

Market YES

25%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $75K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 73.9% -5 pts

60/100

Market strongly favors an Apple foldable iPhone announcement by 2026.

Will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2029?

73.06%

Market YES

27%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $2K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 68.06% -5 pts

50/100

Market indicates a strong belief in robots passing Wozniak's test by 2029.

Will Judge Lin grant a preliminary injunction in Anthropic v. DoW?

98.23%

Market YES

2%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $7K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 79.14% -5 pts

55/100

High probability for Judge Lin to grant a preliminary injunction in Anthropic v. DoW.

Will we develop Leopold's 'drop-in remote AI workers' by end of 2027?

67.24%

Market YES

33%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $135K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 57.38% -5 pts

50/100

Market indicates a 62.38% chance of developing remote AI workers by 2027.

Will a humanoid robot set foot on Mars before a biological human does?

76%

Market YES

24%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $20K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 75.19% -5 pts

50/100

High probability for a humanoid robot reaching Mars before a human.

Will Tesla dip to $375 in March?

55%

Market YES

45%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $7K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 58.5% -5 pts

55/100

Market suggests a 63.5% chance Tesla will dip to $375 in March.

🤖 AI & Tech Markets