AI & Tech Prediction Markets

Will New Glenn (Blue Origin) reach Mars before Starship/Falcon (SpaceX)

82.22%

Market YES

18%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $22K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 77.22% -5 pts

50/100

Market favors New Glenn reaching Mars before SpaceX's vehicles.

Will Apple announce a foldable iPhone by the end of 2026?

75.37%

Market YES

25%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $75K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 73.9% -5 pts

60/100

Market strongly favors an Apple foldable iPhone announcement by 2026.

Will ARC AGI 3 be easy for humans and hard for AI?

61.98%

Market YES

38%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $6K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 73.64% -5 pts

55/100

The market strongly favors ARC AGI 3 being easy for humans and hard for AI.

Will Artificial Intelligence (AI) policy be an explicitly partisan political issue before 2030 🤖🇺🇸⚖️💻

68.78%

Market YES

31%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $2K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 63.78% -5 pts

50/100

There's a 68.78% chance AI policy will become a partisan issue by 2030.

Will OpenAI retire the Sora app in 2026?

99.06%

Market YES

1%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $1K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 92.62% -5 pts

55/100

High probability suggests OpenAI will likely retire the Sora app in 2026.

Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $385-$390 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 9 – Mar 13?

8.15%

Market YES

92%

Market NO

Polymarket

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 13.15% +5 pts

55/100

Market indicates low probability for Tesla to close between $385-$390 next week.

Will Google (GOOGL) close above $280 end of March?

86.75%

Market YES

13%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $5K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 88.65% -5 pts

55/100

Market predicts Google will close above $280 with high confidence.

Will Google (GOOGL) close above $260 end of March?

98.3%

Market YES

2%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $14K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 92.1% -5 pts

55/100

Market strongly favors Google closing above $260 by end of March.

Will there be a GPT 5.5?

71.1%

Market YES

29%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $6K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 67.45% -5 pts

55/100

The market indicates a strong belief in the release of GPT 5.5.

AI Cult exists by 2027

78.16%

Market YES

22%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $29K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 73.16% -5 pts

45/100

The market predicts a 78.16% chance of an AI cult existing by 2027.

By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)

80.91%

Market YES

19%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $55K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 75.91% -5 pts

45/100

The market strongly favors AI being able to read novels by 2029.

Will Kanye release BULLY by April 3?

99.95%

Market YES

0%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $241K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 64.8% -5 pts

60/100

Market indicates a high likelihood of Kanye releasing BULLY by April 3.

Will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2029?

73.06%

Market YES

27%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $2K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 68.06% -5 pts

50/100

Market indicates a strong belief in robots passing Wozniak's test by 2029.

will tesla stock exceed $500 a share by 2030?

61.6%

Market YES

38%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $2K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 57.81% -5 pts

50/100

Market suggests a 62.81% chance Tesla stock will exceed $500 by 2030.

Will a mainstream AI model pass the stick figure arrow name test in 2026?

66%

Market YES

34%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $5K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 61% -5 pts

55/100

There's a 66% chance a mainstream AI will pass the test by 2026.

Will a humanoid robot set foot on Mars before a biological human does?

76%

Market YES

24%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $20K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 75.19% -5 pts

50/100

High probability for a humanoid robot reaching Mars before a human.

Will Claude Become a Pokemon Master before 2027?

92.62%

Market YES

7%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $17K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 86.42% -5 pts

60/100

High probability suggests Claude is likely to become a Pokemon Master by 2027.

Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028?

86.09%

Market YES

14%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $7K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 70% -5 pts

50/100

There is a 75% chance a Big Five publisher will publish an AI-written novel by 2028.

Will Claude Code support the .agents/skills/ standard before July?

60.04%

Market YES

40%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $1K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 62.21% -5 pts

60/100

Market leans towards Claude Code supporting the standard before July.

Will Starlink IPO by the end 2027?

70%

Market YES

30%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $5K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 65% -5 pts

50/100

Market indicates a strong likelihood of Starlink IPO by end of 2027.

Will Chat GPT 6 release before the end of 2026?

70%

Market YES

30%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $5K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 65% -5 pts

60/100

There's a 70% chance Chat GPT 6 will be released before 2026 ends.

GTA 6 released before GPT 6?

76.54%

Market YES

23%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $2K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 71.54% -5 pts

55/100

GTA 6 is favored to release before GPT 6 with a high market probability.

By end of 2028, will PornHub have a category for AI-generated porn?

78.94%

Market YES

21%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $55K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 74.78% -5 pts

45/100

High probability for PornHub to have an AI-generated porn category by 2028.

Will AI surpass human intellect by 2030?

83.55%

Market YES

16%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $17K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 78.55% -5 pts

50/100

High market confidence suggests AI may surpass human intellect by 2030.

🤖 AI & Tech Markets