AI & Tech Prediction Markets

Will Apple CEO Tim Cook announce his retirement or resignation by the end of 2030?

97.68%

Market YES

2%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $1K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 92.68% -5 pts

50/100

High market probability suggests strong belief in Tim Cook's retirement by 2030.

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job oss [See full title!]

63%

Market YES

37%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $2K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 55.44% -5 pts

55/100

AI is likely to be a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms.

Will Anthropic’s private valuation exceed 50% of OpenAI’s in their next funding rounds?

85.51%

Market YES

14%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $1K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 80.51% -5 pts

55/100

Market predicts Anthropic's valuation will exceed 50% of OpenAI's in upcoming funding rounds.

Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft?

74%

Market YES

26%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $28K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 69% -5 pts

45/100

There is a 74% chance AI will perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft by 2035.

Will GPT-4.5 score at least 100 in an IQ test?

68.82%

Market YES

31%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $1K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 63.82% -5 pts

45/100

Market predicts GPT-4.5 will score at least 100 on an IQ test with 68.82% probability.

Will fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major US city before 2030?

79.84%

Market YES

20%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $23K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 75.39% -5 pts

50/100

High market confidence in level 5 self-driving cars by 2030 in major US cities.

Will an AI be able to write a passable novel before 2028?

76.33%

Market YES

24%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $7K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 70.16% -5 pts

50/100

There is a 75.16% chance an AI will write a passable novel by 2028.

Will SpaceX IPO before the end of 2026?

83.01%

Market YES

17%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $33K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 73.4% -5 pts

60/100

High probability for SpaceX IPO before 2026, with market confidence at 60%.

GTA 6 released before GPT 6?

76.54%

Market YES

23%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $2K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 71.54% -5 pts

55/100

GTA 6 is favored to release before GPT 6 with a high market probability.

Will Chat GPT 6 release before the end of 2026?

70%

Market YES

30%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $5K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 65% -5 pts

60/100

There's a 70% chance Chat GPT 6 will be released before 2026 ends.

Will AI surpass human intellect by 2030?

83.55%

Market YES

16%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $17K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 78.55% -5 pts

50/100

High market confidence suggests AI may surpass human intellect by 2030.

Will Claude Become a Pokemon Master before 2027?

92.62%

Market YES

7%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $17K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 86.42% -5 pts

60/100

High probability suggests Claude is likely to become a Pokemon Master by 2027.

Will Starlink IPO by the end 2027?

70%

Market YES

30%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $5K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 65% -5 pts

50/100

Market indicates a strong likelihood of Starlink IPO by end of 2027.

Will Claude Code support the .agents/skills/ standard before July?

60.04%

Market YES

40%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $1K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 62.21% -5 pts

60/100

Market leans towards Claude Code supporting the standard before July.

Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028?

86.09%

Market YES

14%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $7K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 70% -5 pts

50/100

There is a 75% chance a Big Five publisher will publish an AI-written novel by 2028.

By end of 2028, will PornHub have a category for AI-generated porn?

78.94%

Market YES

21%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $55K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 74.78% -5 pts

45/100

High probability for PornHub to have an AI-generated porn category by 2028.

Will OpenAI design and manufacture a custom AI chip by 2030?

93%

Market YES

7%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $5K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 88% -5 pts

50/100

High market confidence in OpenAI designing a custom AI chip by 2030.

Will SpaceX IPO before the end of 2027?

88.42%

Market YES

12%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $2K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 83.35% -5 pts

50/100

High probability indicates strong market belief in a SpaceX IPO by 2027.

GPT-6 released in 2026?

74.36%

Market YES

26%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $6K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 69.36% -5 pts

55/100

The market predicts a 74.36% chance of GPT-6 being released in 2026.

SOAI#7: A movie or short film produced with significant use of AI wins major audience praise and sparks backlash

63.83%

Market YES

36%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $3K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 58.83% -5 pts

55/100

There's a 63.83% chance an AI-produced film will win audience praise and face backlash.

Harvey AI publicly announces $200M+ ARR by EOY2026?

77.6%

Market YES

22%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $20K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 72.6% -5 pts

55/100

Market predicts a high likelihood of Harvey AI achieving $200M+ ARR by EOY2026.

Will mHC be used in DeepSeek V4?

76.17%

Market YES

24%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $1K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 71.03% -5 pts

55/100

The market indicates a strong likelihood of mHC being used in DeepSeek V4.

In 2028, will AI rank at least as high as abortion on Gallup's poll of America's most important problem?

71.16%

Market YES

29%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $14K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 66.16% -5 pts

45/100

AI is likely to rank as high as abortion in 2028 according to current market probabilities.

Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft?

87.85%

Market YES

12%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $10K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 82.85% -5 pts

45/100

High probability for AI performing arbitrary tasks in Minecraft by 2035.

🤖 AI & Tech Markets