AI & Tech Prediction Markets

Will an LLM (a GPT-like text AI) defeat the World Champion at Chess before 2035?

66.1%

Market YES

34%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $4K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 61.1% -5 pts

50/100

Market leans towards LLM defeating the Chess Champion by 2035.

Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2031?

92.47%

Market YES

8%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $2K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 87.47% -5 pts

50/100

High probability of a significant AI-generated meme by 2031.

Will OpenAI announce a new GPT-5-level model before 1 July 2026?

94.11%

Market YES

6%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $4K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 89.11% -5 pts

60/100

High probability for OpenAI announcing a new model before July 2026.

Yann LeCun's new AI startup reaches $100M+ valuation by end of 2027?

67.92%

Market YES

32%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $1K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 80.71% -5 pts

55/100

High market confidence in Yann LeCun's startup reaching a $100M valuation by 2027.

Will things basically be fine regarding job loss and unemployment due to AI in the next several years?

65.3%

Market YES

35%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $2K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 57.97% -5 pts

45/100

The market leans towards a positive outlook on job loss and unemployment due to AI.

Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?

70.68%

Market YES

29%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $284K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 63.76% -5 pts

50/100

Market indicates a strong belief AI will exceed 85% on FrontierMath by 2028.

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?

64.64%

Market YES

35%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $249K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 59.59% -5 pts

45/100

The market suggests a strong belief in AI's ability to create low-quality movies by 2028.

By 2029, will AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 Indie Games?

62.1%

Market YES

38%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $9K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 57.1% -5 pts

45/100

Market leans towards AI generating indie-quality video games by 2029.

Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft?

87.85%

Market YES

12%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $10K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 82.85% -5 pts

45/100

High probability for AI performing arbitrary tasks in Minecraft by 2035.

Gemini 4 released in 2026?

77.94%

Market YES

22%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $4K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 73.21% -5 pts

55/100

The market predicts a high likelihood of Gemini 4's release in 2026.

Will Claude become a Pokèmon Master by the end of 2026?

94.82%

Market YES

5%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $4K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 89.82% -5 pts

60/100

High probability suggests Claude is likely to become a Pokémon Master by 2026.

Will someone take desperate measures due to expectations of AI-related risks by January 1, 2035?

90.52%

Market YES

9%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $4K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 85.52% -5 pts

50/100

High probability of desperate measures due to AI risks by 2035.

By 2028, will fully AI generated explicit NSFW movies be commonplace?

69.53%

Market YES

30%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $6K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 64.85% -5 pts

45/100

There is a 69.85% chance that fully AI-generated explicit movies will be common by 2028.

Will Apple stock (AAPL) hit $500 before $50?

81.27%

Market YES

19%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $2K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 76.27% -5 pts

50/100

Market favors Apple stock hitting $500 before $50 with high confidence.

Will Blue Origin land an uncrewed Blue Moon MK1 lander on the moon before SpaceX lands an uncrewed Starship?

84.57%

Market YES

15%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $7K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 82.75% -5 pts

60/100

High probability for Blue Origin landing before SpaceX's Starship.

Will Amazon dip to $200 in March?

54.3%

Market YES

46%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $7K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 69.6% -5 pts

55/100

Market predicts a high chance Amazon will dip to $200 in March.

If DeepSeek releases V4 in 2026, will there be articles about it in NYT, WSJ, and WaPo within two weeks of release?

71.46%

Market YES

29%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $2K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 66.46% -5 pts

55/100

There's a 71.46% chance of major articles on DeepSeek V4 in top newspapers after its 2026 release.

Will SpaceX' Falcon launch at least 700 times?

98.12%

Market YES

2%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $8K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 93.12% -5 pts

45/100

The market strongly favors SpaceX launching Falcon 700 times.

Will AI pass the Bob Ross Turing Test by 2035?

64.38%

Market YES

36%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $4K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 59.38% -5 pts

50/100

The market suggests a strong belief that AI will pass the Bob Ross Turing Test by 2035.

Big Tech capital expenditures will exceed $500 billion in 2026

83.85%

Market YES

16%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $1K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 79.04% -5 pts

55/100

Market predicts Big Tech capex will exceed $500 billion in 2026 with high confidence.

Will Apple (AAPL) close above $240 end of March?

68%

Market YES

32%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $5K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 69.5% -5 pts

55/100

Market indicates a strong likelihood of Apple closing above $240 by end of March.

By the end of 2027, will AI be able to do taxes as good as an average accountant?

69.42%

Market YES

31%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $1K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 64.42% -5 pts

45/100

Market suggests AI will match average accountants in tax preparation by 2027.

AI model achieves superhuman ELO on Codeforces by June 1st 2027?

71%

Market YES

29%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $3K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 73.11% -5 pts

45/100

Market predicts a high likelihood of an AI achieving superhuman ELO on Codeforces by June 2027.

Will OpenAI be valued above $1 trillion before 2030?

75%

Market YES

25%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $19K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 70% -5 pts

50/100

Market predicts a high likelihood of OpenAI surpassing $1 trillion valuation by 2030.

🤖 AI & Tech Markets