AI & Tech Prediction Markets

Will Artificial Intelligence (AI) policy be an explicitly partisan political issue before 2030 🤖🇺🇸⚖️💻

68.78%

Market YES

31%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $2K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 63.78% -5 pts

50/100

There's a 68.78% chance AI policy will become a partisan issue by 2030.

Will ARC AGI 3 be easy for humans and hard for AI?

61.98%

Market YES

38%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $6K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 73.64% -5 pts

55/100

The market strongly favors ARC AGI 3 being easy for humans and hard for AI.

Will Apple announce a foldable iPhone by the end of 2026?

75.37%

Market YES

25%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $75K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 73.9% -5 pts

60/100

Market strongly favors an Apple foldable iPhone announcement by 2026.

Will we develop Leopold's 'drop-in remote AI workers' by end of 2027?

67.24%

Market YES

33%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $135K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 57.38% -5 pts

50/100

Market indicates a 62.38% chance of developing remote AI workers by 2027.

OpenAI and Anthropic will both hit their 2026 revenue goals in 2026

76.05%

Market YES

24%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $1K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 68.54% -5 pts

55/100

Market indicates a strong belief both companies will meet 2026 revenue goals.

Will an AI model solve a FrontierMath Open Problem before 2027?

90.82%

Market YES

9%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $7K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 79.39% -5 pts

60/100

High market confidence in AI solving a FrontierMath problem by 2027.

Will Perplexity not IPO by December 31, 2027?

60.5%

Market YES

40%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $95K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 55.5% -5 pts

50/100

Market suggests a 60.5% chance Perplexity won't IPO by 2027.

Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 10?

65%

Market YES

35%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $11K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 60% -5 pts

60/100

Market sees a 65% chance for Claude to be the #1 free app on March 10.

Will Amanda Askell still be a power at Anthropic, EOY 2027?

75%

Market YES

25%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $146K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 67.85% -5 pts

45/100

Market shows strong belief Amanda Askell will remain influential at Anthropic by 2027.

Will an AI solve any important mathematical conjecture before January 1st, 2030?

69.21%

Market YES

31%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $34K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 71.74% -5 pts

50/100

High probability suggests confidence in AI solving a major math conjecture by 2030.

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly-selected computer games at human level, given the chance to train via self-play?

65%

Market YES

35%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $36K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 61% -5 pts

45/100

Market suggests a strong belief in AI achieving human-level gaming by 2028.

Generate Biomedicines (ticker: GENB) will IPO before 5pm EST on March 31, 2026

99%

Market YES

1%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $2K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 94% -5 pts

55/100

High probability for Generate Biomedicines to IPO by March 31, 2026.

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

88.01%

Market YES

12%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $2.4M

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 78.26% -5 pts

50/100

AI is expected to be a major political issue by 2028, similar to abortion.

Will Anthropic models still be hosted on at least one of AWS, GCP, or Azure at expiry

97.16%

Market YES

3%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $11K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 92.12% -5 pts

55/100

High probability that Anthropic models will remain hosted on major cloud platforms.

Will a robot be created that can fully substitute for a plumber before January 1st, 2040?

67%

Market YES

33%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $25K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 61% -5 pts

50/100

There's a 66% chance a robot will replace plumbers by 2040.

Consensys IPO closing market cap above $1B?

64%

Market YES

36%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $250K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 59% -5 pts

55/100

Market sees a 64% chance of Consensys IPO exceeding $1B in market cap.

Will it be possible to disentangle most of the features learned by a model comparable to GPT-2 this decade?

89.1%

Market YES

11%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $1K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 84.1% -5 pts

45/100

High probability of disentangling GPT-2 model features this decade.

Will ChatGPT have ads before the end of 2026?

98.25%

Market YES

2%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $18K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 93.13% -5 pts

60/100

High likelihood that ChatGPT will have ads by the end of 2026.

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?

62.5%

Market YES

38%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $180K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 57.5% -5 pts

60/100

Market indicates a 62.5% chance of SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 exploding.

Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?

63.93%

Market YES

36%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $123K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 58.56% -5 pts

55/100

Market indicates a 63.56% chance of an AI achieving a perfect score in IMO 2026.

Will I still be using Claude Code by the end of March 2026

93.85%

Market YES

6%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $4K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 88.36% -5 pts

60/100

High probability suggests strong confidence in continued use of Claude Code by March 2026.

Will Anthropic escape the "supply chain risk" designation by EOY 2026?

86.73%

Market YES

13%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $56K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 75.55% -5 pts

60/100

Market favors Anthropic escaping supply chain risk by EOY 2026 with 80.55% probability.

$100B AI training cluster before 2029?

87.92%

Market YES

12%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $11K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 82.94% -5 pts

45/100

High probability for a $100B AI training cluster by 2029.

Apple to release a foldable iPhone before 2027?

75.67%

Market YES

24%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $24K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 69.1% -5 pts

55/100

There's a 74.1% chance Apple will release a foldable iPhone before 2027.

🤖 AI & Tech Markets