AI & Tech Prediction Markets

Will Perplexity not IPO by December 31, 2027?

60.5%

Market YES

40%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $95K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 55.5% -5 pts

50/100

Market suggests a 60.5% chance Perplexity won't IPO by 2027.

Will we see an open source LLM model better than Opus 4.5 before the end of 2026?

85.24%

Market YES

15%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $2K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 80.24% -5 pts

60/100

High probability of a better open source LLM model by 2026.

In 2028, will at least 350,000 (1/1000) Americans be talking at least monthly to an AI therapist or coach?

92.03%

Market YES

8%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $101K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 87.53% -5 pts

45/100

High likelihood of 350,000 Americans using AI therapists monthly by 2028.

Will AI be passable at answering Magic: The Gathering rules questions before 2030?

88.8%

Market YES

11%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $8K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 83.8% -5 pts

50/100

High probability for AI to answer Magic: The Gathering rules questions by 2030.

Will SpaceX attempt to deploy Starlink satellites in the first fully-orbital Starship–SuperHeavy flight?

76.83%

Market YES

23%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $22K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 71.83% -5 pts

55/100

Market indicates a strong likelihood of SpaceX deploying Starlink satellites on the next flight.

Will Apple release a foldable phone before 2028?

79.05%

Market YES

21%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $10K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 74.05% -5 pts

50/100

High probability suggests Apple is likely to release a foldable phone by 2028.

Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?

70.39%

Market YES

30%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $2K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 69.46% -5 pts

55/100

Market predicts Nvidia shares will reach new highs by 2026 with a 74.46% probability.

Will GPT-5 be able to accurately compare weights of lead and feathers?

94.09%

Market YES

6%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $9K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 89.09% -5 pts

45/100

Market strongly believes GPT-5 will compare weights of lead and feathers accurately.

Will NVIDIA stock be higher on March 16, 2026 than on March 09, 2026?

50%

Market YES

50%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $3K

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 54.5% +4.5 pts

55/100

NVIDIA stock has an equal chance of being higher or lower in March 2026.

Will this Yudkowsky tweet on AI babysitters hold up by Feb 2028?

25.33%

Market YES

75%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $16K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 29.83% +4.5 pts

50/100

Market leans towards the tweet not holding up by February 2028.

Will Apple name an outside CEO to replace Tim Cook in 2026?

1%

Market YES

99%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $1K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 5.5% +4.5 pts

55/100

The market strongly favors Tim Cook remaining CEO through 2026.

Will Tim Cook cease to be CEO of Apple before the end of 2026?

25%

Market YES

75%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $4K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 22.25% +4.5 pts

60/100

Market indicates low likelihood of Tim Cook leaving Apple by 2026.

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

25.27%

Market YES

75%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $11.9M

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 32.66% +4.5 pts

50/100

Market suggests low confidence in AI generating full high-quality movies by 2028.

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

42.83%

Market YES

57%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $585K

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 50.5% +4.5 pts

45/100

Market sees a near even split on AI's impact on US economic indicators by 2028.

Will any 4 of AAPL, AMZN, ASML, GOOG, META, MSFT, NVDA, and TSM lose 60% of their peak value before 2028?

37.33%

Market YES

63%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $7K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 41.83% +4.5 pts

50/100

Market suggests a low probability of 4 tech stocks losing 60% of peak value by 2028.

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

52.26%

Market YES

48%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $742K

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 54.47% +4.5 pts

50/100

The market shows a near-even split on AI passing the Turing test by 2029.

Will the AI bubble pop in 2026?

19.89%

Market YES

80%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $108K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 20.22% +4.5 pts

55/100

The market suggests a low probability of the AI bubble popping in 2026.

Will AI Research Be Mostly Autonomous By June 1 2027?

24%

Market YES

76%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $4K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 18.31% +4.5 pts

50/100

The market favors a NO outcome for AI research being mostly autonomous by 2027.

Will @EliezerYudkowsky reverse his opinion on AI safety, before 2030?

5.63%

Market YES

94%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $5K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 10.13% +4.5 pts

50/100

Low probability of Eliezer Yudkowsky reversing his AI safety stance before 2030.

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

45%

Market YES

55%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $460K

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 51.96% +4.5 pts

45/100

Market is evenly split on AI playing games at human level without practice by 2028.

Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $390-$400 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 16 – Mar 20?

30.5%

Market YES

70%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $1K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 35% +4.5 pts

55/100

Market leans towards Microsoft not closing between $390-$400 this week.

Tim Cook out as Apple CEO by March 31?

1%

Market YES

99%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $4K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 5.71% +4.5 pts

55/100

Low probability of Tim Cook leaving Apple CEO position by March 31.

Will Anthropic surpass OpenAI valuation in 2026?

38.08%

Market YES

62%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $96K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 40.61% +4.5 pts

55/100

Market leans towards OpenAI maintaining a higher valuation than Anthropic by 2026.

1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.

14.24%

Market YES

86%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $6K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 14.54% +4.5 pts

55/100

Market favors OpenAI not going public over Anthropic going public.

🤖 AI & Tech Markets