AI & Tech Prediction Markets

Will more than half the US population actively work with AI daily by 2027?

45.3%

Market YES

55%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $3K

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 49.8% +4.5 pts

60/100

Market shows a near-even split on daily AI usage by 2027.

Will Google announce a new quantum-related milestone within the next 60 days?

1.92%

Market YES

98%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $15K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 17.49% +4.5 pts

55/100

Market indicates low likelihood of a new Google quantum milestone announcement soon.

Will ChatGPT launch an "adult mode" before 1 April 2026?

1.26%

Market YES

99%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $27K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 9.67% +4.5 pts

60/100

The market strongly favors no launch of an adult mode for ChatGPT by April 2026.

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?

5.33%

Market YES

95%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $7.3M

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 9.83% +4.5 pts

55/100

Low market probability suggests minimal concern over AI causing human extinction by 2030.

Will Tesla declare bankruptcy by the end of 2027?

4.53%

Market YES

95%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $3K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 9.03% +4.5 pts

50/100

Low probability of Tesla declaring bankruptcy by 2027, with market sentiment favoring stability.

Will Tesla declare bankruptcy or be acquired by the end of 2027?

14.21%

Market YES

86%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $10K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 18.71% +4.5 pts

50/100

Market indicates low probability of Tesla declaring bankruptcy or being acquired by 2027.

Will Elon Musk's AI Company (xAI) exceed OpenAI in valuation anytime before 2035?

29.8%

Market YES

70%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $16K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 34.3% +4.5 pts

50/100

Market leans towards xAI not exceeding OpenAI's valuation before 2035.

AI program resolves Riemann Hypothesis before 2035

21.87%

Market YES

78%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $13K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 26.37% +4.5 pts

45/100

The market shows low confidence in AI solving the Riemann Hypothesis by 2035.

Will Tesla deliver a low cost car before 2035?

38.1%

Market YES

62%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $3K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 42.6% +4.5 pts

50/100

Market leans towards Tesla not delivering a low-cost car by 2035.

Will Apple name an outside CEO to replace Tim Cook in 2026?

1%

Market YES

99%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $1K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 5.5% +4.5 pts

55/100

The market strongly favors Tim Cook remaining CEO through 2026.

Will Tim Cook cease to be CEO of Apple before the end of 2026?

25%

Market YES

75%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $4K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 22.25% +4.5 pts

60/100

Market indicates low likelihood of Tim Cook leaving Apple by 2026.

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

25.27%

Market YES

75%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $11.9M

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 32.66% +4.5 pts

50/100

Market suggests low confidence in AI generating full high-quality movies by 2028.

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

42.83%

Market YES

57%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $585K

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 50.5% +4.5 pts

45/100

Market sees a near even split on AI's impact on US economic indicators by 2028.

Will any 4 of AAPL, AMZN, ASML, GOOG, META, MSFT, NVDA, and TSM lose 60% of their peak value before 2028?

37.33%

Market YES

63%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $7K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 41.83% +4.5 pts

50/100

Market suggests a low probability of 4 tech stocks losing 60% of peak value by 2028.

1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.

14.24%

Market YES

86%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $6K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 14.54% +4.5 pts

55/100

Market favors OpenAI not going public over Anthropic going public.

Tim Cook out as Apple CEO by March 31?

1%

Market YES

99%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $4K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 5.71% +4.5 pts

55/100

Low probability of Tim Cook leaving Apple CEO position by March 31.

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

45%

Market YES

55%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $460K

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 51.96% +4.5 pts

45/100

Market is evenly split on AI playing games at human level without practice by 2028.

Will @EliezerYudkowsky reverse his opinion on AI safety, before 2030?

5.63%

Market YES

94%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $5K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 10.13% +4.5 pts

50/100

Low probability of Eliezer Yudkowsky reversing his AI safety stance before 2030.

Will this Yudkowsky tweet on AI babysitters hold up by Feb 2028?

25.33%

Market YES

75%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $16K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 29.83% +4.5 pts

50/100

Market leans towards the tweet not holding up by February 2028.

Will there be a functional Tesla bot in Mars by 2034?

27.45%

Market YES

73%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $74K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 31.95% +4.5 pts

50/100

Market indicates low confidence in a functional Tesla bot on Mars by 2034.

[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?

11.96%

Market YES

88%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $10K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 17.52% +4.5 pts

55/100

Market indicates low likelihood of Nvidia's stock closing below $100 in 2026.

[ACX 2026] Will the EU require mandatory age verification on social media or AI before 2027?

19.42%

Market YES

81%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $8K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 23.92% +4.5 pts

55/100

The market indicates a low probability for mandatory age verification in the EU by 2027.

Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?

26.31%

Market YES

74%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $104K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 27.96% +4.5 pts

50/100

The market favors no further AI winters before AGI, with a 76.54% probability.

Will AI resolve P vs NP by 2050?

31.42%

Market YES

69%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $36K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 35.92% +4.5 pts

50/100

The market indicates a low probability of AI resolving P vs NP by 2050.

🤖 AI & Tech Markets