AI & Tech Prediction Markets

AI bypass coding entirely by EOY 2027?

5.47%

Market YES

95%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $11K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 9.97% +4.5 pts

45/100

Market indicates low likelihood of AI completely bypassing coding by 2027.

Will Tesla reach $435 in March?

26%

Market YES

74%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $211K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 28% +4.5 pts

55/100

Market indicates low likelihood of Tesla reaching $435 in March.

Will Tesla reach $420 in March?

34.5%

Market YES

66%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $2K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 41% +4.5 pts

55/100

Market leans towards Tesla not reaching $420 in March.

Will Tesla reach $450 in March?

17.5%

Market YES

83%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $211K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 19.5% +4.5 pts

55/100

Market indicates a low probability of Tesla reaching $450 in March.

Will Tesla dip to $330 in March?

9%

Market YES

91%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $3K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 13.5% +4.5 pts

55/100

Market indicates low probability of Tesla dipping to $330 in March.

Will Tesla dip to $353 in March?

22.5%

Market YES

78%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $4K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 34.5% +4.5 pts

55/100

Market indicates a low probability of Tesla dipping to $353 in March.

Will Amazon dip to $192 in March?

12.5%

Market YES

88%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $5K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 41% +4.5 pts

55/100

Market leans towards Amazon not dipping to $192 in March.

Will Amazon reach $224 in March?

13.5%

Market YES

87%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $5K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 34.5% +4.5 pts

55/100

Market shows a low probability for Amazon reaching $224 in March.

AI outperforms humans in all mathematical research areas by 2028?

17.89%

Market YES

82%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $70K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 22.39% +4.5 pts

45/100

Market favors humans outperforming AI in mathematical research by 2028.

Will OpenAI announce a new model that EpochAI estimates is at least as large as GPT-4.5, before August 2026?

41.46%

Market YES

59%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $2K

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 45.96% +4.5 pts

60/100

Market shows a slight lean against OpenAI announcing a new model by August 2026.

Will there be a functional Tesla bot in Mars by 2034?

27.45%

Market YES

73%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $74K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 31.95% +4.5 pts

50/100

Market indicates low confidence in a functional Tesla bot on Mars by 2034.

Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?

26.31%

Market YES

74%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $104K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 27.96% +4.5 pts

50/100

The market favors no further AI winters before AGI, with a 76.54% probability.

[ACX 2026] Will the EU require mandatory age verification on social media or AI before 2027?

19.42%

Market YES

81%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $8K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 23.92% +4.5 pts

55/100

The market indicates a low probability for mandatory age verification in the EU by 2027.

[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?

11.96%

Market YES

88%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $10K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 17.52% +4.5 pts

55/100

Market indicates low likelihood of Nvidia's stock closing below $100 in 2026.

Will AI resolve P vs NP by 2050?

31.42%

Market YES

69%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $36K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 35.92% +4.5 pts

50/100

The market indicates a low probability of AI resolving P vs NP by 2050.

AI solves a Millennium Prize Problem before 2030?

35.61%

Market YES

64%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $1K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 40.11% +4.5 pts

45/100

Market leans towards AI not solving a Millennium Prize Problem by 2030.

Will SpaceX successfully land Starship on Mars before January 1st 2030?

22%

Market YES

78%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $6K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 26.5% +4.5 pts

50/100

Market leans towards SpaceX not landing Starship on Mars by 2030.

Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2030?

30%

Market YES

70%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $13K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 34.5% +4.5 pts

50/100

Market indicates a low probability of an assassination attempt on a CEO by 2030.

Will LLM hallucinations be a fixed problem by the end of 2028?

37.49%

Market YES

63%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $91K

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 45.5% +4.5 pts

50/100

The market is uncertain about resolving LLM hallucinations by 2028.

Will Microsoft’s stock price on March 17, 2026 be lower than on March 11, 2026?

41.58%

Market YES

58%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $1K

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 46.08% +4.5 pts

60/100

Market shows a slight preference for Microsoft’s stock to be higher on March 17, 2026.

Will self-driving cars become the primary mode of transportation in major US cities by 2030?

25%

Market YES

75%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $3K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 29.04% +4.5 pts

50/100

Self-driving cars are unlikely to dominate US city transport by 2030.

[ACX 2026] Will an AI-created song chart in the top 20 of the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?

31.14%

Market YES

69%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $177K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 40.33% +4.5 pts

55/100

The market suggests a low likelihood of an AI-created song reaching the Billboard top 20 by 2027.

Will an AI winter happen by 2030?

25%

Market YES

75%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $7K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 25.5% +4.5 pts

50/100

The market indicates a low probability of an AI winter occurring by 2030.

Will AI kill >20% of the human population before 2030?

2.79%

Market YES

97%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $104K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 7.22% +4.5 pts

50/100

Low probability of AI causing over 20% human population loss by 2030.

🤖 AI & Tech Markets