AI & Tech Prediction Markets

Will Tesla declare bankruptcy or be acquired by the end of 2027?

14.21%

Market YES

86%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $10K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 18.71% +4.5 pts

50/100

Market indicates low probability of Tesla declaring bankruptcy or being acquired by 2027.

Will Tesla declare bankruptcy by the end of 2027?

4.53%

Market YES

95%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $3K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 9.03% +4.5 pts

50/100

Low probability of Tesla declaring bankruptcy by 2027, with market sentiment favoring stability.

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?

5.33%

Market YES

95%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $7.3M

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 9.83% +4.5 pts

55/100

Low market probability suggests minimal concern over AI causing human extinction by 2030.

Will ChatGPT launch an "adult mode" before 1 April 2026?

1.26%

Market YES

99%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $27K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 9.67% +4.5 pts

60/100

The market strongly favors no launch of an adult mode for ChatGPT by April 2026.

Will Google announce a new quantum-related milestone within the next 60 days?

1.92%

Market YES

98%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $15K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 17.49% +4.5 pts

55/100

Market indicates low likelihood of a new Google quantum milestone announcement soon.

Will more than half the US population actively work with AI daily by 2027?

45.3%

Market YES

55%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $3K

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 49.8% +4.5 pts

60/100

Market shows a near-even split on daily AI usage by 2027.

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

19.08%

Market YES

81%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $7K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 23.58% +4.5 pts

45/100

Low probability of programming AGI for under $10k by 2030.

[ACX 2026] Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?

22.77%

Market YES

77%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $3K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 27.56% +4.5 pts

55/100

The market indicates a low probability for U.S. AI safety legislation in 2026.

Will an AI Minecraft Agent defeat the Ender Dragon before 2027?

38.49%

Market YES

62%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $5K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 42.99% +4.5 pts

60/100

The market suggests a lower likelihood of an AI Minecraft Agent defeating the Ender Dragon by 2027.

Will the AI bubble pop in 2026?

19.89%

Market YES

80%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $108K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 20.22% +4.5 pts

55/100

The market suggests a low probability of the AI bubble popping in 2026.

Will GPT-5.4 outperform Claude Opus 4.6 at METR 50% time horizon?

33.22%

Market YES

67%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $16K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 43.8% +4.5 pts

55/100

Market favors Claude Opus 4.6 over GPT-5.4 for performance at METR 50%.

Will Gemini top the leaderboard?

1.13%

Market YES

99%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $2K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 5.63% +4.5 pts

55/100

The market indicates a low probability of Gemini topping the leaderboard.

Will OpenAI release a model referred to as "GPT-6" before June 1st, 2026?

11.46%

Market YES

89%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $10K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 15.01% +4.5 pts

60/100

Market indicates low probability for OpenAI releasing GPT-6 by June 2026.

Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?

12.53%

Market YES

87%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $766K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 19.31% +4.5 pts

55/100

The market favors Waymo over Tesla for autonomous rides in 2026.

Meta cheated at LM Arena to pump Llama-4's score?

20.51%

Market YES

79%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $7K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 25.43% +4.5 pts

55/100

The market indicates a low probability of Meta cheating at LM Arena.

AWS stops offering Anthropic models to US customers via Amazon Bedrock before May 1, 2026

2.39%

Market YES

98%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $59K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 7.81% +4.5 pts

55/100

Market predicts AWS will not stop offering Anthropic models by May 2026.

Will NVIDIA stock be higher on March 16, 2026 than on March 09, 2026?

50%

Market YES

50%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $3K

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 54.5% +4.5 pts

55/100

NVIDIA stock has an equal chance of being higher or lower in March 2026.

Will Anthropic surpass OpenAI valuation in 2026?

38.08%

Market YES

62%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $96K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 40.61% +4.5 pts

55/100

Market leans towards OpenAI maintaining a higher valuation than Anthropic by 2026.

Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $390-$400 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 16 – Mar 20?

30.5%

Market YES

70%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $1K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 35% +4.5 pts

55/100

Market leans towards Microsoft not closing between $390-$400 this week.

Will there by a major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2027?

42.84%

Market YES

57%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $3K

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 47.34% +4.5 pts

60/100

Market shows mixed confidence in a major LLM continual learning breakthrough by 2027.

Will AI Research Be Mostly Autonomous By June 1 2027?

24%

Market YES

76%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $4K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 18.31% +4.5 pts

50/100

The market favors a NO outcome for AI research being mostly autonomous by 2027.

Will the Tesla "Redwood" be available for purchase and delivery by June 30, 2026?

1.64%

Market YES

98%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $10K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 6.14% +4.5 pts

60/100

Market shows low confidence in Tesla's Redwood availability by June 30, 2026.

Will anything other than AI wipe out humanity by 2100?

3.56%

Market YES

96%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $5K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 8.06% +4.5 pts

50/100

The market strongly favors that AI will not be the cause of humanity's extinction by 2100.

OpenAI or Anthropic 2028 revenue at $3T+

10.96%

Market YES

89%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $8K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 15.46% +4.5 pts

45/100

Market predicts low likelihood of OpenAI or Anthropic reaching $3T+ revenue by 2028.

🤖 AI & Tech Markets