Markets / AI & Tech

🤖 AI & Tech Markets

1,097 live markets · AI Pulse Scores on every one

⚡ Top Edge 🎯 High Confidence 💰 Most Volume 🆕 Newest
Will there be a community formed around a self-reflective AI e-celebrity by 2028?
89.91%
Market YES
10%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 82.91% -7 pts
45/100
High likelihood of a community forming around a self-reflective AI e-celebrity by 2028.
Will an LLM beat me in a game of chess by the end of 2027?
61.5%
Market YES
39%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 54.5% -7 pts
45/100
Pulse verdict: uncertain — confidence 45/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Global media opinion of Obama will improve from EOY 2023 to mid year 2027, according to OpenAI's best LLM
66.12%
Market YES
34%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 59.12% -7 pts
40/100
Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 40/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will Alibaba release an open-source Music Generation AI model in 2026?
62.22%
Market YES
38%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 55.22% -7 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will @LivGorton end up at Anthropic by end of 2026?
78%
Market YES
22%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 71% -7 pts
55/100
High probability suggests strong sentiment for Liv Gorton joining Anthropic by 2026.
Will Epoch AI accept Archivara's proposed solution to this FrontierMath Open Problem?
78.75%
Market YES
21%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 60% -7 pts
50/100
Epoch AI has a 67% chance of accepting Archivara's solution to the problem.
AI: Will someone train a $10B model by 2030?
82.43%
Market YES
18%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 75.43% -7 pts
40/100
High probability for a $10B AI model being trained by 2030.
google gemini 4.0 release by
62%
Market YES
38%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 55% -7 pts
40/100
Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 40/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will ChatGPT be the top free app in the Apple app store on March 31, 2026? (US)
69%
Market YES
31%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 64% -7 pts
50/100
There's a 71% chance ChatGPT will be the top free app by March 31, 2026.
Will MalgoTechnologies be a TOP AI Development company
70%
Market YES
30%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 63% -7 pts
50/100
MalgoTechnologies has a 70% chance of being a top AI development company.
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? [Polymarket]
63.24%
Market YES
37%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 56.24% -7 pts
55/100
Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will SpaceX' Falcon launch at least 800 times?
96.89%
Market YES
3%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 89.89% -7 pts
40/100
High probability for Falcon's 800 launches, but confidence is low due to insufficient data.
Will any AI model score above 95% on ARC-AGI-2 by end of 2026?
72.39%
Market YES
28%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 65.39% -7 pts
55/100
Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will OpenAI still own the number 5.3 before May?
92.66%
Market YES
7%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 85.66% -7 pts
55/100
Market strongly favors OpenAI retaining number 5.3 before May.
will i qualify for the IPO 2026 team?
62%
Market YES
38%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 55% -7 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will there be a good AI personal assistant released in 2026?
73.53%
Market YES
26%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 66.53% -7 pts
50/100
Market predicts a good AI personal assistant will be released in 2026 with high confidence.
Will an LLM score >=85% on FrontierMath Tier 4 before 2028?
78.81%
Market YES
21%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 71.81% -7 pts
45/100
High probability that an LLM will score >=85% on FrontierMath Tier 4 before 2028.
Will SpaceX's Artemis refuelling launches have a 100% landing success rate?
60.97%
Market YES
39%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 59.63% -7 pts
40/100
Market leans towards SpaceX achieving 100% landing success for Artemis refuelling launches.
Will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2030?
78%
Market YES
22%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 71% -7 pts
45/100
High probability for a robot passing Wozniak's test by 2030.
Will OpenAI ever top the LMArena leaderboard again before 2030?
87%
Market YES
13%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 80% -7 pts
45/100
High probability suggests confidence in OpenAI topping the leaderboard again before 2030.
Will at least 10 countries have some form of bans on language AI coded into law by 2027?
60.52%
Market YES
39%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 53.52% -7 pts
55/100
There's a 60.52% chance that 10 countries will ban language AI by 2027.
Humanoid Robot Finishes a Half Marathon Under 2 Hours by 2030
74.73%
Market YES
25%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 67.73% -7 pts
40/100
High probability for a humanoid robot to finish a half marathon under 2 hours by 2030.
Will AI be capable of fast self improvement before physical AI robots are massively used for improving AI capabilities?
85.37%
Market YES
15%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 78.37% -7 pts
45/100
Market predicts AI will improve itself quickly before physical robots are widely used.
In exactly two years, will two shares of Applied Micro Devices (AMD) be worth more than one share of Microsoft (MSFT)?
61.14%
Market YES
39%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 54.14% -7 pts
40/100
Market leans towards AMD outperforming MSFT in two years.
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