AI & Tech Prediction Markets

AI beats Minecraft (RSG) in under 7 minutes before 2028?

12.59%

Market YES

87%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $2K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 17.09% +4.5 pts

45/100

Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 45/100. Market appears fairly priced.

Will AI be Time's person of the year in 2025 OR 2026?

5.83%

Market YES

94%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $3K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 10.33% +4.5 pts

55/100

The market shows low confidence in AI being Time's person of the year in 2025 or 2026.

Will I think all AI hell broke loose in 2026?

9.05%

Market YES

91%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $16K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 25.94% +4.5 pts

55/100

The market suggests a low probability of perceiving AI chaos in 2026.

Will a critically acclaimed video game feature AI-generated dialogue in 2026?

39%

Market YES

61%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $5K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 43.5% +4.5 pts

55/100

The market favors no AI-generated dialogue in critically acclaimed games by 2026.

Will Tesla Optimus Gen-2 be available for *Sale* General Availability (GA) by 2026?

10%

Market YES

90%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $4K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 14.5% +4.5 pts

60/100

Market predicts low likelihood of Tesla Optimus Gen-2 being available by 2026.

Before 2027, will I enjoy playing Minecraft w/ an AI while voice calling comparably to playing over call with a friend?

29.9%

Market YES

70%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $1K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 34.54% +4.5 pts

55/100

The market favors a NO outcome for enjoying Minecraft with AI over voice calling with a friend.

Will an AI-created movie have a rating >=7.0 on IMDB by 2028?

45%

Market YES

55%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $4K

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 49.5% +4.5 pts

50/100

Market is evenly split on AI-created movies achieving a 7.0+ IMDB rating by 2028.

Officially-endorsed Claude Minecraft Twitch stream before 2027?

14.58%

Market YES

85%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $1K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 19.08% +4.5 pts

55/100

Low probability for an officially-endorsed Claude Minecraft Twitch stream by 2027.

Will OpenAI name another model Codex by the end of this year?

57.62%

Market YES

42%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $3K

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 54.12% +4.5 pts

55/100

The market is evenly split on whether OpenAI will name another model Codex this year.

Will an LLM get at least 70% on the 2026 USAMO for less than $2?

2.18%

Market YES

98%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $7K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 30.38% +4.5 pts

55/100

Market favors NO, indicating low confidence in LLM achieving 70% on USAMO.

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2027?

0.94%

Market YES

99%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $22K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 5.44% +4.5 pts

60/100

The market strongly favors that AI will not wipe out humanity by 2027.

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2028?

0.77%

Market YES

99%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $29K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 5.27% +4.5 pts

50/100

The market shows a strong belief that AI will not wipe out humanity by 2028.

Will photo/video "AI detection" meaningfully exist in December 2028?

26.09%

Market YES

74%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $2K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 30.59% +4.5 pts

45/100

Market indicates low confidence in meaningful AI detection by December 2028.

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality novel to a prompt?

48.54%

Market YES

51%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $22K

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 53.04% +4.5 pts

45/100

The market is evenly split on AI's ability to write a high-quality novel by 2028.

AI haircuts before 2030

35.71%

Market YES

64%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $8K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 40.21% +4.5 pts

45/100

Market leans towards AI haircuts not being common before 2030.

Will there be significant protests calling for AI rights before 2030?

33.11%

Market YES

67%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $7K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 37.61% +4.5 pts

50/100

The market suggests low likelihood of significant AI rights protests before 2030.

Will OpenAI Reach $100B in total profit by the end of 2027?

17.7%

Market YES

82%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $4K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 22.2% +4.5 pts

50/100

Market indicates low confidence in OpenAI reaching $100B profit by 2027.

Will OpenAI Fail by EOY 2028?

12.1%

Market YES

88%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $4K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 18.18% +4.5 pts

50/100

Market indicates low probability of OpenAI failing by 2028.

Will an AI system be known to have resisted shutdown before the end of 2026?

37.63%

Market YES

62%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $3K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 42.13% +4.5 pts

60/100

Market leans towards AI systems not resisting shutdown by 2026.

Will an LLM get at least 80% on the 2026 USAMO for less than $2?

1.72%

Market YES

98%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $7K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 23.5% +4.5 pts

55/100

Market favors NO for LLM scoring 80% on USAMO under $2.

Will Tesla increase deliveries in 2026?

36.38%

Market YES

64%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $1K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 40.88% +4.5 pts

55/100

Market leans towards Tesla not increasing deliveries in 2026.

Will an AI solve a Millennium problem by EOY 2027?

19.62%

Market YES

80%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $3K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 24.12% +4.5 pts

50/100

Market leans towards AI not solving a Millennium problem by 2027.

Will Anthropic’s next Sonnet model exceed 65% on terminal bench?

5.26%

Market YES

95%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $3K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 14.71% +4.5 pts

55/100

The market indicates a low probability of Anthropic’s Sonnet model exceeding 65% on terminal bench

[Will Brown] Will Transformative AI look like an abundance of specialized models, in August 2026?

42.03%

Market YES

58%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $1K

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 46.53% +4.5 pts

55/100

Market leans towards NO for specialized AI models by August 2026.

🤖 AI & Tech Markets