AI & Tech Prediction Markets

Will Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 2000 by the end of 2027? (Ark Invest price target - base case)

5.91%

Market YES

94%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $93K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 10.41% +4.5 pts

50/100

Market predicts low likelihood of Tesla stock exceeding $2000 by 2027.

Will AI surpass humans in conducting scientific research by 2030?

30.53%

Market YES

69%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $2K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 35.03% +4.5 pts

50/100

Market indicates skepticism about AI surpassing humans in scientific research by 2030.

Will an AI-generated song reach #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?

15.71%

Market YES

84%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $4K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 20.3% +4.5 pts

60/100

Low probability for an AI-generated song reaching #1 on Billboard Hot 100 by 2027.

Will AI be able to reach a human IRS representative before April 2026?

46.12%

Market YES

54%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $2K

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 52.42% +4.5 pts

60/100

The market is evenly split on AI reaching a human IRS representative by April 2026.

Will meta announce Its shutting down its metaverse by the end of 2026?

37%

Market YES

63%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $5K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 41.5% +4.5 pts

60/100

Market leans towards Meta not shutting down its metaverse by 2026.

Will humans wipe out AI by 2030?

6.52%

Market YES

93%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $3K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 10.5% +4.5 pts

50/100

The market indicates a low probability of humans wiping out AI by 2030.

Contingent on AI being perceived as a threat, will humans deliberately cause an AI winter before 2030?

17.2%

Market YES

83%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $3K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 21.48% +4.5 pts

45/100

Market indicates low likelihood of a deliberate AI winter before 2030.

Will there be a massive catastrophe caused by AI before 2030?

27.18%

Market YES

73%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $4K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 29.13% +4.5 pts

50/100

The market indicates a low probability of a massive AI-related catastrophe by 2030.

Will there be a global pause on the largest AI training runs at any point before AGI?

20%

Market YES

80%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $2K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 24.5% +4.5 pts

50/100

Market indicates low likelihood of a global pause in AI training runs before AGI.

Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service in California by the end of 2026?

11.59%

Market YES

88%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $49K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 18.8% +4.5 pts

60/100

Market leans towards Tesla not launching a Robo-Taxi service in California by 2026.

Will the "Dead by April" AI agent earn a net profit by April 3, 2026?

96.26%

Market YES

4%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $3K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 20.97% +4.5 pts

60/100

Market favors a NO outcome for the AI agent's profitability by April 2026.

Will at least five purely-AI-written books make it onto the New York Times fiction bestseller list before 2031?

35.92%

Market YES

64%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $4K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 40.42% +4.5 pts

50/100

Market leans towards no AI-written books making the bestseller list by 2031.

Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2035?

44.29%

Market YES

56%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $18K

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 48.75% +4.5 pts

50/100

Market shows a near even split on the likelihood of an assassination attempt on a CEO by 2035.

A major tech company, besides Anthropic, reports at least 98% of its code is AI-generated before April 1, 2026

4.42%

Market YES

96%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $11K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 16.98% +4.5 pts

55/100

Low likelihood for a major tech company to report 98% AI-generated code by April 2026.

Will @Champion1024 get a girlfriend before NVIDIA market cap hits 5.5 trillion USD?

45%

Market YES

55%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $2K

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 49.5% +4.5 pts

60/100

Market odds show a close race between getting a girlfriend and NVIDIA's market cap milestone.

Catholic church recognizes AI souls by 2040?

19.34%

Market YES

81%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $4K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 24.63% +4.5 pts

45/100

The market shows a low probability for the Catholic Church to recognize AI souls by 2040.

Conditional on humanity surviving to 2035, will a global AI pause have been enacted?

17%

Market YES

83%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $4K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 21.5% +4.5 pts

45/100

Low probability for a global AI pause by 2035 if humanity survives.

Before 2027, will OpenAI release a reasoning model that generates image tokens in its CoT?

22.51%

Market YES

77%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $1K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 27.01% +4.5 pts

55/100

Market leans towards OpenAI not releasing a reasoning model for image tokens by 2027.

Will there be over 10,000 Optimus robots working at Tesla before 2027?

4.52%

Market YES

95%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $29K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 10.39% +4.5 pts

60/100

Low probability for over 10,000 Optimus robots at Tesla by 2027.

In 2028, will an AI be able to write poetry indistinguishable from that of a great Romantic poet?

50%

Market YES

50%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $64K

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 54.5% +4.5 pts

45/100

The market shows equal chances for AI to write indistinguishable poetry by 2028.

Will SpaceX send a Starship to Mars before 2028?

2.07%

Market YES

98%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $158K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 6.5% +4.5 pts

50/100

Low market probability for SpaceX sending Starship to Mars before 2028.

Public LLM exceeds superforecaster on Forecast bench by EOY 2026?

41.43%

Market YES

59%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $3K

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 48.03% +4.5 pts

45/100

Market shows a close split on whether LLMs will outperform superforecasters by 2026.

Will AI be broadly considered "boring"/commonplace/unremarkable by 2030?

41.7%

Market YES

58%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $3K

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 46.2% +4.5 pts

50/100

Market shows mixed views on AI being seen as commonplace by 2030.

Will the Tesla RovoVan be available before 2027?

8.04%

Market YES

92%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $2K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 15.25% +4.5 pts

60/100

The market indicates a low probability for the Tesla RovoVan's availability before 2027.

🤖 AI & Tech Markets