Markets / AI & Tech

🤖 AI & Tech Markets

1,097 live markets · AI Pulse Scores on every one

⚡ Top Edge 🎯 High Confidence 💰 Most Volume 🆕 Newest
Will an AI-generated song reach #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?
15.71%
Market YES
84%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $4K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 20.3% +4.5 pts
60/100
Low probability for an AI-generated song reaching #1 on Billboard Hot 100 by 2027.
Will AI surpass humans in conducting scientific research by 2030?
30.53%
Market YES
69%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 35.03% +4.5 pts
50/100
Market indicates skepticism about AI surpassing humans in scientific research by 2030.
Will AI be broadly considered "boring"/commonplace/unremarkable by 2030?
41.7%
Market YES
58%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $3K
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 46.2% +4.5 pts
50/100
Market shows mixed views on AI being seen as commonplace by 2030.
Will an AI-generated movie be nominated for an Oscar before 2030?
17.24%
Market YES
83%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $18K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 21.74% +4.5 pts
50/100
The market favors no AI-generated movie nominations for an Oscar by 2030.
Will there be a new AI Startup primarily focused on using AI models for computer control before the end of March?
38.29%
Market YES
62%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $1K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 44.18% +4.5 pts
60/100
Market leans towards no new AI startup by March end.
Will AI wipe out all biological life on Earth before 2100?
6%
Market YES
94%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $6K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 10.5% +4.5 pts
50/100
Low probability of AI wiping out all biological life on Earth by 2100.
Will Sam Altman cease to be CEO of OpenAI before the end of 2026?
8.73%
Market YES
91%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $1K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 13.23% +4.5 pts
60/100
Low probability of Sam Altman leaving OpenAI as CEO before 2026.
Will a US entity force OpenAI to delete any mainline DALL-E models by the end of 2026?
12.21%
Market YES
88%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 16.71% +4.5 pts
60/100
Low probability of a US entity forcing OpenAI to delete DALL-E models by 2026.
Will much AI research be nationalized by 2027?
16.19%
Market YES
84%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $19K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 20.69% +4.5 pts
60/100
Low probability of AI research nationalization by 2027, with market favoring a NO outcome.
An LLM or AI will be credited as coauthor on a paper in Nature or Science by mid 2026
14%
Market YES
86%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $5K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 18.5% +4.5 pts
55/100
Low probability for an LLM or AI being coauthor on a Nature or Science paper by mid-2026.
Will a misaligned AI kill 1% of the world population within any 12 month period before 2035?
14.86%
Market YES
85%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $1K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 22.09% +4.5 pts
50/100
The market indicates a low probability of a misaligned AI causing significant fatalities by 2035.
Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2040?
8.17%
Market YES
92%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $24K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 12.67% +4.5 pts
50/100
The market shows low probability for AI causing mass extinction by 2040.
Will AI cause mass unemployment... by 2030 ?
16.28%
Market YES
84%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $4K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 20.78% +4.5 pts
50/100
The market indicates low probability for AI causing mass unemployment by 2030.
Will OpenAI declare bankruptcy or be Acquired before the end of 2027?
11.16%
Market YES
89%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $1K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 15.66% +4.5 pts
50/100
Market indicates low probability of OpenAI declaring bankruptcy or being acquired by 2027.
Gary Marcus prediction: physical reasoning of AI systems will improve before psychological reasoning
27.85%
Market YES
72%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $4K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 32.35% +4.5 pts
45/100
Market favors psychological reasoning improvements over physical reasoning in AI.
Will AI cause a global catastrophe killing at least 10% of humans before 2100?
24.95%
Market YES
75%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $4K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 29.45% +4.5 pts
50/100
The market shows a low probability of AI causing a global catastrophe by 2100.
AI snitch arrest by EOY2026?
33.8%
Market YES
66%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $1K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 37.87% +4.5 pts
55/100
Market leans towards no AI snitch arrests by EOY2026.
Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2050?
14.47%
Market YES
86%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $9K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 12.78% +4.5 pts
50/100
The market shows a low probability of misaligned AI causing mass extinction by 2050.
Waymo IPO before 2027?
15.5%
Market YES
85%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $23K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 26.5% +4.5 pts
60/100
The market indicates a low probability for a Waymo IPO before 2027.
ByteDance IPO before 2027?
17.5%
Market YES
83%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $1K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 20.5% +4.5 pts
55/100
The market suggests a low likelihood of ByteDance's IPO before 2027.
Revolut IPO before 2027?
20.5%
Market YES
80%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $35K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 18.5% +4.5 pts
55/100
The market indicates a low probability for a Revolut IPO before 2027.
Will Helion Deliver 10 Megawatts of Fusion Power to Microsoft by 2029?
14.21%
Market YES
86%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $3K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 18.71% +4.5 pts
50/100
The market indicates a low probability of Helion delivering fusion power to Microsoft by 2029.
Will Anthropic release an open-weights model in 2026?
16.68%
Market YES
83%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 21.18% +4.5 pts
55/100
Market suggests low probability for Anthropic releasing an open-weights model in 2026.
xAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?
46.74%
Market YES
53%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $3K
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 51.24% +4.5 pts
55/100
Market sentiment is split on xAI's ability to sell or rent AI compute by 2026.
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