AI & Tech Prediction Markets

Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?

42.08%

Market YES

58%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $2K

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 46.58% +4.5 pts

55/100

Market sees a 42% chance Google will surpass NVIDIA's market cap by year-end.

Will an AI solve a Millennium problem by EOY 2027?

19.62%

Market YES

80%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $3K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 24.12% +4.5 pts

50/100

Market leans towards AI not solving a Millennium problem by 2027.

Will AI automate all remote jobs that do not require a legal person by Jan 1st 2027?

6.11%

Market YES

94%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $5K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 10.76% +4.5 pts

60/100

Low probability of AI automating all remote jobs by 2027.

Will superintelligent AI take over humanity by 2030?

7%

Market YES

93%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $3K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 11.5% +4.5 pts

50/100

The market indicates a low probability of superintelligent AI taking over by 2030.

Will Google (GOOGL) close above $330 end of March?

0.7%

Market YES

99%

Market NO

Polymarket

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 10.7% +4.5 pts

55/100

Market indicates low probability for Google to close above $330 by end of March.

Will Google (GOOGL) close above $340 end of March?

5.05%

Market YES

95%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $357K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 9.6% +4.5 pts

55/100

Market predicts Google will not close above $340 by end of March.

High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2030?

22.6%

Market YES

77%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $10K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 27.1% +4.5 pts

45/100

Market indicates low confidence in high-quality AI-generated video games by 2030.

OpenAI confirm work on a Generative Music tool by end of June 2026?

12.31%

Market YES

88%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $3K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 27.87% +4.5 pts

55/100

Market favors a NO on OpenAI confirming a Generative Music tool by June 2026.

Will OpenAI create a game-playing AI that uses Sora?

11.25%

Market YES

89%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $2K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 20.46% +4.5 pts

55/100

Market favors a NO outcome for OpenAI creating a game-playing AI using Sora.

Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 5B views before 2027?

9.88%

Market YES

90%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $2K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 13% +4.5 pts

60/100

Low probability of an AI-generated YouTube video reaching 5B views by 2027.

Will an AI co-author a mathematics research paper published in a reputable journal before the end of 2026?

39.34%

Market YES

61%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $10K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 43.84% +4.5 pts

60/100

The market leans towards AI not co-authoring a math paper by 2026.

Will OpenAI lose over $1B in Sora-related lawsuits?

12.95%

Market YES

87%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $4K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 17.45% +4.5 pts

45/100

Market suggests low likelihood of OpenAI losing over $1B in lawsuits.

Will most digital entertainment be AI generated by 2028?

21.39%

Market YES

79%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $3K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 25.89% +4.5 pts

50/100

The market suggests most digital entertainment will not be AI-generated by 2028.

As predicted by AI 2027, will AI surpass all living humans in coding ability by January 2027?

10%

Market YES

90%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $3K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 16.16% +4.5 pts

55/100

Market indicates low confidence in AI surpassing humans in coding by January 2027.

AI bypass coding entirely by EOY 2026?

1.25%

Market YES

99%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $21K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 5.75% +4.5 pts

55/100

Market indicates low probability of AI fully bypassing coding by 2026.

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

33%

Market YES

67%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $12K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 37.5% +4.5 pts

55/100

Market leans towards AI not writing accepted articles by 2028.

Will AI out-wipe humanity by 2030?

11.2%

Market YES

89%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $2K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 15.7% +4.5 pts

50/100

The market predicts a low probability of AI wiping out humanity by 2030.

OpenAI or Anthropic 2028 revenue at $3T+

10.96%

Market YES

89%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $8K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 15.46% +4.5 pts

45/100

Market predicts low likelihood of OpenAI or Anthropic reaching $3T+ revenue by 2028.

Will anything other than AI wipe out humanity by 2100?

3.56%

Market YES

96%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $5K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 8.06% +4.5 pts

50/100

The market strongly favors that AI will not be the cause of humanity's extinction by 2100.

Will the Tesla "Redwood" be available for purchase and delivery by June 30, 2026?

1.64%

Market YES

98%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $10K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 6.14% +4.5 pts

60/100

Market shows low confidence in Tesla's Redwood availability by June 30, 2026.

Will Tesla obtain a permit to operate paid driverless robotaxis in CA from the CPUC by the end of 2026 [description]

13.51%

Market YES

86%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $3K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 18.01% +4.5 pts

60/100

Market favors a NO outcome for Tesla's robotaxi permit by 2026.

Will Tesla become the top-selling car manufacturer in 2027?

6.94%

Market YES

93%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $43K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 11.44% +4.5 pts

45/100

The market indicates low confidence in Tesla becoming the top car manufacturer by 2027.

Will GPT-6 be considered to be AGI?

7.64%

Market YES

92%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $5K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 12.14% +4.5 pts

45/100

Market shows low confidence in GPT-6 being AGI, with a majority voting NO.

Will an AI be able to beat me in Pokemon?

23.69%

Market YES

76%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $3K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 27.54% +4.5 pts

55/100

The market favors a human player over AI in Pokemon with a 77% chance of winning.

🤖 AI & Tech Markets