AI & Tech Prediction Markets

Will I think all AI hell broke loose in 2026?

9.05%

Market YES

91%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $16K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 25.94% +4.5 pts

55/100

The market suggests a low probability of perceiving AI chaos in 2026.

Will AI be Time's person of the year in 2025 OR 2026?

5.83%

Market YES

94%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $3K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 10.33% +4.5 pts

55/100

The market shows low confidence in AI being Time's person of the year in 2025 or 2026.

AI beats Minecraft (RSG) in under 7 minutes before 2028?

12.59%

Market YES

87%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $2K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 17.09% +4.5 pts

45/100

Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 45/100. Market appears fairly priced.

Discord IPO before 2027?

62.35%

Market YES

38%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $424K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 78.2% -3.5 pts

60/100

High probability for Discord's IPO before 2027 at 81.7%.

Ledger IPO before 2027?

44%

Market YES

56%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $473K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 68% -3.5 pts

60/100

Ledger has a 71.5% chance of going public before 2027.

Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?

35%

Market YES

65%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $341K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 63% -3.5 pts

60/100

Market indicates a 66.5% chance of Kraken's IPO by the end of 2026.

Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?

62%

Market YES

38%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $252K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 58.5% -3.5 pts

65/100

Market suggests a 62% chance OpenAI will not IPO by 2026.

Cerebras IPO before 2027?

91.7%

Market YES

8%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $277K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 81.5% -3.5 pts

60/100

High probability for Cerebras IPO before 2027, with market sentiment strongly leaning towards YES.

Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?

99.65%

Market YES

0%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $479K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 76.5% -3.5 pts

65/100

Apple has an 80% chance of being the second-largest company by market cap on March 31.

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?

84.5%

Market YES

16%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $165K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 81% -3.5 pts

50/100

Market predicts a high likelihood of SpaceX IPO exceeding $1.2T market cap.

Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026

75.5%

Market YES

25%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $151K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 72% -3.5 pts

60/100

Market predicts Tesla will deliver fewer than 350,000 vehicles in Q1 2026.

In exactly two years (Mar 2026), will two shares of Alphabet/Google GOOG be worth more than one share of Microsoft MSFT?

98.9%

Market YES

1%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $4K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 95.4% -3.5 pts

60/100

Market strongly favors Alphabet's shares outperforming Microsoft's in two years.

Will OpenAI go public in 2026?

38.23%

Market YES

62%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 47.5% -3.5 pts

50/100

Market sentiment is split on OpenAI going public in 2026, with a slight lean towards yes.

Will the Supreme Court rule on a case relating to the copyright status of AI model outputs before 2028?

58.85%

Market YES

41%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 55.35% -3.5 pts

45/100

There is a 58.85% chance the Supreme Court will rule on AI copyright by 2028.

Will Claude Opus be ranked in the top 20 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard two years from today (3/10/24)?

1.98%

Market YES

98%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $21K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 5.48% +3.5 pts

60/100

Market strongly favors Claude Opus not making the top 20 in two years.

Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?

97.25%

Market YES

3%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $54K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 71.9% -3.5 pts

60/100

Market favors Anthropic to have the top AI model by March 2026.

Will Starship’s upper stage be caught successfully on SpaceX’s first attempt?

53%

Market YES

47%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 49.5% -3.5 pts

50/100

The market shows a close probability for a successful catch of Starship's upper stage.

Will OpenAI have the best AI model for math on March 31?

87.5%

Market YES

13%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $24K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 84% -3.5 pts

60/100

Market favors OpenAI as the top math AI model with high confidence.

Tesla Stock hits $575 before $300

53%

Market YES

47%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 49.5% -3.5 pts

50/100

Tesla stock is closely contested between hitting $575 and dropping to $300.

AI do Ambiguous Thing by Far off Time

59.15%

Market YES

41%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 55.65% -3.5 pts

40/100

Market leans towards a positive outcome for AI doing an ambiguous task.

Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?

97.35%

Market YES

3%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $44K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 77.85% -3.5 pts

60/100

High probability suggests confidence in Anthropic's AI model ranking by March 2026.

Will Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026?

91.5%

Market YES

9%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $72K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 86.5% -3.5 pts

60/100

Market strongly favors Anthropic having the second-best AI model by March 2026.

Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 17?

74%

Market YES

26%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $2K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 69% -3.5 pts

60/100

Shadowrocket has a 72.5% chance to be the #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 17.

Will Apple (AAPL) close above $210 end of March?

86.8%

Market YES

13%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $3K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 92.8% -3.5 pts

60/100

Market predicts a high likelihood of Apple closing above $210 by end of March.

🤖 AI & Tech Markets