AI & Tech Prediction Markets

Will Apple (AAPL) close above $230 end of March?

77%

Market YES

23%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $2K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 74.5% -3.5 pts

60/100

Market sees a strong likelihood of Apple closing above $230 by end of March.

Will AI resolve this market yes?

51.62%

Market YES

48%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 48.12% -3.5 pts

50/100

Market sentiment is nearly evenly split on AI resolving this issue.

Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31?

99.35%

Market YES

1%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $184K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 85% -3.5 pts

60/100

Market strongly favors OpenAI having the best coding model by March 31.

Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)

54.88%

Market YES

45%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 51.38% -3.5 pts

55/100

Nvidia has a slight edge to close in green today, but uncertainty remains high.

Will NVIDIA FY2028 (Feb 2027 – Jan 2028) revenue exceed $400B?

59.1%

Market YES

41%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 55.6% -3.5 pts

40/100

Market leans towards NVIDIA exceeding $400B in FY2028 revenue.

Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?

69.5%

Market YES

31%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $5K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 66% -3.5 pts

55/100

Market sees a 69.5% chance Anthropic's market cap will hit $600B by IPO day.

Will an AI agent autonomously discover and report a novel security vulnerability (assigned CVE) by end of 2026?

50.58%

Market YES

49%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 47.08% -3.5 pts

55/100

The market shows a nearly even split on AI discovering a novel security vulnerability by 2026.

Will Anthropic, before 2035, pause development as a result of safety evaluations?

53.03%

Market YES

47%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 49.53% -3.5 pts

45/100

Market opinions are split on whether Anthropic will pause development for safety evaluations.

AI sex bots cause major celeb scandal with >10M X memes by 2026?

42.55%

Market YES

57%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 54.5% -3.5 pts

50/100

Market leans towards a major celeb scandal involving AI sex bots by 2026.

Starlink (SpaceX) has operational internet satellites in Mars orbit by 2045

58.63%

Market YES

41%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 55.13% -3.5 pts

40/100

Market leans towards SpaceX having Mars internet satellites by 2045.

Will my name or photo appear in a news article about the Stop AI protest within a month?

55.13%

Market YES

45%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 51.63% -3.5 pts

50/100

There's a near-even chance of your name or photo appearing in a protest-related news article.

Does an AI disaster kill at least 1,000 people before 2040?

59.8%

Market YES

40%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 56.3% -3.5 pts

45/100

Market predicts a 59.8% chance of an AI disaster causing 1,000+ deaths by 2040.

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

89.5%

Market YES

11%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $63K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 67% -3.5 pts

60/100

Market favors Anthropic as having the best AI model by April 2026.

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?

93.5%

Market YES

7%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $146K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 88.5% -3.5 pts

65/100

NVIDIA has a high probability of being the largest company by market cap on April 30.

Will Google (GOOGL) close above $290 end of March?

54%

Market YES

46%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $3K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 64% -3.5 pts

60/100

Market indicates a 67.5% chance Google will close above $290 by end of March.

Will Google (GOOGL) close above $250 end of March?

95.7%

Market YES

4%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $4K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 94.45% -3.5 pts

60/100

Market predicts Google will close above $250 by end of March with high confidence.

Will Google (GOOGL) close above $270 end of March?

95.9%

Market YES

4%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $2K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 91.25% -3.5 pts

60/100

Market predicts a high likelihood of Google closing above $270 by end of March.

Female AI love bot: ChadGPT

47.48%

Market YES

53%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 49.79% -3.5 pts

50/100

The market shows a slight favor towards the creation of a female AI love bot.

Will OpenAI announce a new full-size, frontier model >5.4 before May 1, 2026? (aka “Spud”)

89.87%

Market YES

10%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 51.5% -3.5 pts

55/100

Market shows a slight favor for OpenAI announcing a new model before May 2026.

Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?

58.5%

Market YES

42%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $63K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 73% -3.5 pts

65/100

Market indicates a high likelihood of SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026.

Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026?

85%

Market YES

15%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $21K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 81.5% -3.5 pts

65/100

High probability for SpaceX IPO by September 2026, with market sentiment strongly favoring YES.

Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026?

90.5%

Market YES

10%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $30K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 89% -3.5 pts

65/100

High probability indicates strong belief SpaceX will IPO by 2026.

Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?

85%

Market YES

15%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $20K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 70.5% -3.5 pts

60/100

Market favors Anthropic as the top AI model by April 2026 with a 74% probability.

Will Google have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026?

97.3%

Market YES

3%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $46K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 93.6% -3.5 pts

60/100

Market strongly favors Google having the third-best AI model by March 2026.

🤖 AI & Tech Markets