Markets / AI & Tech

🤖 AI & Tech Markets

1,097 live markets · AI Pulse Scores on every one

⚡ Top Edge 🎯 High Confidence 💰 Most Volume 🆕 Newest
Now Amazon buys Konami on 2034!
67.92%
Market YES
32%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 60.92% -7 pts
40/100
Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 40/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will any AI achieve a score of 25% on ARC-AGI-3 by the end of 2026?
68.57%
Market YES
31%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $1K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 69.47% -7 pts
55/100
Market predicts a high likelihood of AI scoring 25% on ARC-AGI-3 by 2026.
Will Microsoft Copilot inject ads into unrelated commits again?
68%
Market YES
32%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 61% -7 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will GPT-6 qualify for the USAMO?
91.03%
Market YES
9%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 84.03% -7 pts
40/100
High probability for GPT-6 qualifying for USAMO, but confidence is low.
Will a multi-agent AI system publicly outperform a solo frontier model on a live benchmark before July 2026?
75.83%
Market YES
24%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 68.83% -7 pts
55/100
Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will any existing generative AI unicorn go public by 2027?
72.55%
Market YES
27%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 65.55% -7 pts
55/100
There's a 72.55% chance an existing generative AI unicorn will go public by 2027.
Will OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or Meta release a model with context window >= 5M tokens before Dec 31, 2026?
72.22%
Market YES
28%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 65.22% -7 pts
55/100
Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Is Claude Mythos real
93%
Market YES
7%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $1K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 85.25% -7 pts
50/100
The market strongly favors the belief that Claude Mythos is real.
Will a United States judge or clerk cite an incorrect fact originating from ChatGPT in a court ruling?
87.5%
Market YES
13%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 80.5% -7 pts
40/100
High probability of a judge citing incorrect ChatGPT facts in rulings.
Will Anthropic release Claude 5 (or Opus 5) before July 1, 2026?
74.36%
Market YES
26%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 67.36% -7 pts
55/100
Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will any AI model score above 95% on ARC-AGI-2 by end of 2026?
72.39%
Market YES
28%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 65.39% -7 pts
55/100
Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will Cursor (Anysphere) and Claude (Anthropic) merge before the end of 2026?
11.06%
Market YES
89%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 17.56% +6.5 pts
55/100
Low probability of a merger between Cursor and Claude before 2026.
Will Github bring back Claude on their Copilot Student Plan before May 1st?
25.71%
Market YES
74%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 32.21% +6.5 pts
55/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will SpaceX will do orbital refilling several times in 2026 with Starship V3?
10.71%
Market YES
89%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 17.21% +6.5 pts
50/100
Low probability for SpaceX to conduct orbital refilling with Starship V3 in 2026.
In Jan 2027, it will be standard practise for non-AI-building tech companies to finetune and train their own models
18.3%
Market YES
82%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 24.8% +6.5 pts
50/100
Low probability for non-AI tech firms to train models by Jan 2027.
Will any G7 country pass a mandatory AI-generated content labeling law before Dec 31, 2026?
33.57%
Market YES
66%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 40.07% +6.5 pts
55/100
G7 countries are unlikely to pass AI content labeling laws by 2026.
Will "Thoughts on the Pause AI protest" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
7.83%
Market YES
92%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 14.33% +6.5 pts
40/100
Low probability for the post to be in LessWrong's top fifty in 2026.
New Claude tier above Max 20x before 2027?
39.31%
Market YES
61%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 44.84% +6.5 pts
50/100
Market leans towards no new Claude tier before 2027.
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $180 on any trading day before April 24, 2026?
34.76%
Market YES
65%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 41.26% +6.5 pts
55/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will Gemini be more popular than Chatgpt at the end of 2026?
23%
Market YES
77%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 29.5% +6.5 pts
50/100
Market favors ChatGPT over Gemini's popularity by 2026.
Will someone be killed by a humanoid robot by the end of 2027?
26.16%
Market YES
74%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 32.66% +6.5 pts
45/100
Market leans towards no fatalities from humanoid robots by 2027.
Nvidia stock $300 or higher in 2026
15.7%
Market YES
84%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 22.2% +6.5 pts
50/100
Market shows low confidence in Nvidia reaching $300 by 2026.
Will the openai/openai-python GitHub repo gain 5,000+ net stars in March 2026?
19.06%
Market YES
81%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 25.56% +6.5 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will anyone commit terrorism in order to slow the progression of AI before 2027?
13.86%
Market YES
86%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 20.36% +6.5 pts
55/100
Low probability of terrorism to slow AI progression before 2027.
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