Markets / AI & Tech

🤖 AI & Tech Markets

1,097 live markets · AI Pulse Scores on every one

⚡ Top Edge 🎯 High Confidence 💰 Most Volume 🆕 Newest
New Claude tier above Max 20x before 2027?
39.31%
Market YES
61%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 44.84% +6.5 pts
50/100
Market leans towards no new Claude tier before 2027.
Will "Thoughts on the Pause AI protest" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
7.83%
Market YES
92%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 14.33% +6.5 pts
40/100
Low probability for the post to be in LessWrong's top fifty in 2026.
Will any G7 country pass a mandatory AI-generated content labeling law before Dec 31, 2026?
33.57%
Market YES
66%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 40.07% +6.5 pts
55/100
G7 countries are unlikely to pass AI content labeling laws by 2026.
In Jan 2027, it will be standard practise for non-AI-building tech companies to finetune and train their own models
18.3%
Market YES
82%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 24.8% +6.5 pts
50/100
Low probability for non-AI tech firms to train models by Jan 2027.
Will SpaceX will do orbital refilling several times in 2026 with Starship V3?
10.71%
Market YES
89%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 17.21% +6.5 pts
50/100
Low probability for SpaceX to conduct orbital refilling with Starship V3 in 2026.
Will Github bring back Claude on their Copilot Student Plan before May 1st?
25.71%
Market YES
74%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 32.21% +6.5 pts
55/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Tesla announces formal Intel partnership for AI chip fab by June 30, 2026
21.69%
Market YES
78%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 28.19% +6.5 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will Anthropic win its lawsuit against the Pentagon supply-chain designation by June 2026?
69.61%
Market YES
30%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 31.5% +6.5 pts
55/100
The market indicates a low probability of Anthropic winning its lawsuit against the Pentagon.
Will Emmanuel Macron publicly call for a global halt in AI progress before 2028?
16.8%
Market YES
83%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 23.3% +6.5 pts
45/100
Low probability of Macron calling for a global AI halt before 2028.
Will Claude Sonnet 5 exceed 85% on SWE-bench verified?
47.02%
Market YES
53%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 53.52% +6.5 pts
50/100
Market sentiment is split on Claude Sonnet 5 exceeding 85% on SWE-bench.
Will a major tech company publicly pause or limit AI development due to safety concerns before January 1, 2027?
23.56%
Market YES
76%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 26.83% +6.5 pts
55/100
Low probability of a major tech company pausing AI development due to safety concerns before 2027.
Will Apple announce an iPhone Air 2 in 2026 event?
28%
Market YES
72%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 55.46% +6.5 pts
50/100
Market shows a near split on the likelihood of an iPhone Air 2 announcement in 2026.
Will Paris be the hub of AI in Europe by the end of 2027?
38%
Market YES
62%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 45.5% +6.5 pts
45/100
Paris has a 39% chance of becoming Europe's AI hub by 2027, with mixed market sentiment.
Will a country ban advanced AI systems before 2027?
18.38%
Market YES
82%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 23.62% +6.5 pts
55/100
Low probability of a country banning advanced AI systems before 2027.
Will Microsoft buy Reddit before 2029?
20.94%
Market YES
79%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 27.44% +6.5 pts
45/100
Market leans towards Microsoft not buying Reddit by 2029.
Top car company licenses Tesla autopilot by mid 2027 for US markets
27.66%
Market YES
72%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 34.16% +6.5 pts
50/100
Market leans towards no car company licensing Tesla autopilot by mid-2027.
Will Tesla declare bankruptcy or be acquired by the end of 2029?
20%
Market YES
80%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 26.5% +6.5 pts
45/100
Market leans towards Tesla avoiding bankruptcy or acquisition by 2029.
Will "Bentham’s Bulldog is wrong about AI risk" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
13.9%
Market YES
86%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 20.4% +6.5 pts
40/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 40/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will Anthropic release a model with a higher version number than 4.6 by April 15th?
42%
Market YES
58%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 50.63% +6.5 pts
55/100
Market shows a slight preference for NO on Anthropic releasing a higher version than 4.6 by April 15
Will Tesla cease to be the most valuable automaker by market cap for any amount of time before the end of 2027?
17.27%
Market YES
83%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 23.77% +6.5 pts
45/100
Market suggests Tesla will likely remain the most valuable automaker until 2028.
Will Google Gemini rank above ChatGPT in the App Store at EOY 2026?
33.29%
Market YES
67%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 39.79% +6.5 pts
50/100
Market favors ChatGPT over Google Gemini for App Store ranking by EOY 2026.
Will "OpenAI employees: Now is the time to stop doi..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
10.93%
Market YES
89%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 17.43% +6.5 pts
40/100
Low probability for the post to make the top fifty in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review.
Will 10+ AI models get released in March?
4.63%
Market YES
95%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 38.5% +6.5 pts
50/100
Market leans towards fewer than 10 AI models being released in March.
Will "Terrified Comments on Corrigibility in Claude..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
12.55%
Market YES
87%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 19.05% +6.5 pts
40/100
The market shows a low probability for the post to make the top fifty in LessWrong's review.
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