Markets / AI & Tech

🤖 AI & Tech Markets

1,097 live markets · AI Pulse Scores on every one

⚡ Top Edge 🎯 High Confidence 💰 Most Volume 🆕 Newest
Will Cursor (Anysphere) and Claude (Anthropic) merge before the end of 2026?
13.15%
Market YES
87%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 19.65% +6.5 pts
55/100
Market indicates low likelihood of a merger between Cursor and Claude by 2026.
Did DeepSeek use a cluster of more than 5,000 H100s in 2024?
29.79%
Market YES
70%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 36.29% +6.5 pts
40/100
Market leans towards NO on DeepSeek using over 5,000 H100s in 2024.
Will an AI or robot be charged with sexual assault or another sexual crime before the end of 2026?
5.36%
Market YES
95%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 11.86% +6.5 pts
55/100
Low probability of AI or robot facing sexual assault charges by 2026.
Nvidia stock $300 or higher in 2026
15.7%
Market YES
84%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 22.2% +6.5 pts
50/100
Market shows low confidence in Nvidia reaching $300 by 2026.
Will Gemini be more popular than Chatgpt at the end of 2026?
23%
Market YES
77%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 29.5% +6.5 pts
50/100
Market favors ChatGPT over Gemini's popularity by 2026.
Will someone be killed by a humanoid robot by the end of 2027?
26.16%
Market YES
74%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 32.66% +6.5 pts
45/100
Market leans towards no fatalities from humanoid robots by 2027.
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $180 on any trading day before April 24, 2026?
34.76%
Market YES
65%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 41.26% +6.5 pts
55/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will the openai/openai-python GitHub repo gain 5,000+ net stars in March 2026?
19.06%
Market YES
81%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 25.56% +6.5 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will anyone commit terrorism in order to slow the progression of AI before 2027?
13.86%
Market YES
86%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 20.36% +6.5 pts
55/100
Low probability of terrorism to slow AI progression before 2027.
Will "OpenAI #15: More on OpenAI’s Paranoid Lawfare..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
8.21%
Market YES
92%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 14.71% +6.5 pts
50/100
The market indicates low confidence in the post making the top fifty in LessWrong's review.
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $410-$415 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 9 – Mar 13?
17%
Market YES
83%
Market NO
Polymarket
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 23.5% +6.5 pts
55/100
Market leans towards Tesla not closing between $410-$415 next week.
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $405-$410 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 9 – Mar 13?
17.5%
Market YES
83%
Market NO
Polymarket
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 24% +6.5 pts
55/100
Market indicates a low probability of Tesla closing between $405-$410 next week.
Will "Prologue to Terrified Comments on Claude's Co..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
14.09%
Market YES
86%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 20.59% +6.5 pts
40/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 40/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $400-$405 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 9 – Mar 13?
18.5%
Market YES
82%
Market NO
Polymarket
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 25% +6.5 pts
55/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will Sam Altman reference OpenAI achieving AGI in five tweets prior to the official announcement?
31.69%
Market YES
68%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 38.19% +6.5 pts
40/100
Market leans towards no references from Altman before the AGI announcement.
Will OpenAI IPO and be a publicly traded company in the United States by the end of Halloween 2026?
16.12%
Market YES
84%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 22.62% +6.5 pts
55/100
Low probability for OpenAI to IPO by Halloween 2026.
Will "Requiem for the hopes of a pre-AI world" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
9.16%
Market YES
91%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 15.66% +6.5 pts
50/100
Low probability for the post to reach top fifty in LessWrong's review.
Will Claude 5 be released before June 1?
43%
Market YES
57%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 49.5% +6.5 pts
55/100
Pulse verdict: uncertain — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will Claude Haiku 4.6 be released? (before Claude 4.7/5/etc)
20.71%
Market YES
79%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 27.21% +6.5 pts
55/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
[Metaculus] By 2050, will at least 25% of #1 NYT Best Selling Fiction be primarily written by AI?
49%
Market YES
51%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 54.5% +6.5 pts
40/100
Market shows a near-even split on AI's role in future best-selling fiction.
Will SpaceX's Starship cross the International Date Line by the end of Q2 2026?
30%
Market YES
70%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 36.5% +6.5 pts
55/100
Market leans towards NO for Starship crossing the International Date Line by Q2 2026.
Will "The Paris AI Anti-Safety Summit" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
11%
Market YES
89%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 17.5% +6.5 pts
50/100
Low probability for the summit to rank in LessWrong's top fifty posts.
Will "What's up with Anthropic predicting AGI by ea..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
10.04%
Market YES
90%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 16.54% +6.5 pts
55/100
Low probability for the post to make the top fifty in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review.
Will AI fully replace lawyers?
40%
Market YES
60%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 46.5% +6.5 pts
50/100
Market shows a divided outlook on AI fully replacing lawyers.
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