Markets / AI & Tech

🤖 AI & Tech Markets

1,097 live markets · AI Pulse Scores on every one

⚡ Top Edge 🎯 High Confidence 💰 Most Volume 🆕 Newest
Will "The Paris AI Anti-Safety Summit" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
11%
Market YES
89%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 17.5% +6.5 pts
50/100
Low probability for the summit to rank in LessWrong's top fifty posts.
Will SpaceX's Starship cross the International Date Line by the end of Q2 2026?
30%
Market YES
70%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 36.5% +6.5 pts
55/100
Market leans towards NO for Starship crossing the International Date Line by Q2 2026.
[Metaculus] By 2050, will at least 25% of #1 NYT Best Selling Fiction be primarily written by AI?
49%
Market YES
51%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 54.5% +6.5 pts
40/100
Market shows a near-even split on AI's role in future best-selling fiction.
Will Claude Haiku 4.6 be released? (before Claude 4.7/5/etc)
20.71%
Market YES
79%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 27.21% +6.5 pts
55/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will Claude 5 be released before June 1?
43%
Market YES
57%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 49.5% +6.5 pts
55/100
Pulse verdict: uncertain — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will "Requiem for the hopes of a pre-AI world" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
9.16%
Market YES
91%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 15.66% +6.5 pts
50/100
Low probability for the post to reach top fifty in LessWrong's review.
Will OpenAI IPO and be a publicly traded company in the United States by the end of Halloween 2026?
16.12%
Market YES
84%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 22.62% +6.5 pts
55/100
Low probability for OpenAI to IPO by Halloween 2026.
Will Sam Altman reference OpenAI achieving AGI in five tweets prior to the official announcement?
31.69%
Market YES
68%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 38.19% +6.5 pts
40/100
Market leans towards no references from Altman before the AGI announcement.
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $400-$405 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 9 – Mar 13?
18.5%
Market YES
82%
Market NO
Polymarket
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 25% +6.5 pts
55/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will "Prologue to Terrified Comments on Claude's Co..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
14.09%
Market YES
86%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 20.59% +6.5 pts
40/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 40/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $405-$410 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 9 – Mar 13?
17.5%
Market YES
83%
Market NO
Polymarket
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 24% +6.5 pts
55/100
Market indicates a low probability of Tesla closing between $405-$410 next week.
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $410-$415 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 9 – Mar 13?
17%
Market YES
83%
Market NO
Polymarket
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 23.5% +6.5 pts
55/100
Market leans towards Tesla not closing between $410-$415 next week.
Will AnkiMobile Flashcards be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 17?
0.75%
Market YES
99%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $1K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 7.1% +6.5 pts
50/100
AnkiMobile Flashcards is unlikely to be the #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 17.
In five years, will there be more AI compute launched to space each year than the total amount of AI compute on Earth?
4.01%
Market YES
96%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 10.51% +6.5 pts
40/100
Most believe space AI compute will not exceed Earth's in five years.
In two years time AI pornography will generate twice as much money as regular pornography.
12.09%
Market YES
88%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 18.59% +6.5 pts
40/100
Market favors regular pornography over AI-generated content for revenue growth.
Will Anthropic release Claude Sonnet 5 in March 2026?
1.28%
Market YES
99%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 17% +6.5 pts
50/100
Low probability for Claude Sonnet 5 release in March 2026.
[LIVE] Will Nvidia close the day in Green today?
16.57%
Market YES
83%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 23.07% +6.5 pts
55/100
Nvidia is likely to close the day in red based on current market sentiment.
Will OpenAI be granted a trademark on "GPT" (in the U.S.)?
11.92%
Market YES
88%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 18.42% +6.5 pts
50/100
The market shows a low probability for OpenAI to secure a trademark on 'GPT'.
Will OpenAI release a competitor to GitHub in 2026?
29.48%
Market YES
71%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 35.98% +6.5 pts
50/100
Market leans towards OpenAI not releasing a GitHub competitor by 2026.
Will Amazon buy Anthropic in 2026?
3.25%
Market YES
97%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 9.33% +6.5 pts
50/100
The market indicates a low probability of Amazon acquiring Anthropic in 2026.
Will an AI be convicted of a crime in a US court by 2050?
25%
Market YES
75%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 31.5% +6.5 pts
45/100
The market indicates a low probability of AI being convicted of a crime by 2050.
Will OpenAI fold by EOY 2026?
6.1%
Market YES
94%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 12.6% +6.5 pts
55/100
Market indicates a high likelihood that OpenAI will not fold by the end of 2026.
Will an artificial intelligence or digital person be named as a party in a criminal trial in the USA by EOY 2038?
35%
Market YES
65%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 41.5% +6.5 pts
45/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 45/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Apple adds MCP support before June 8, 2026?
25.65%
Market YES
74%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 32.15% +6.5 pts
50/100
Market leans towards Apple not adding MCP support by June 2026.
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