Markets / AI & Tech

🤖 AI & Tech Markets

1,097 live markets · AI Pulse Scores on every one

⚡ Top Edge 🎯 High Confidence 💰 Most Volume 🆕 Newest
Will Tesla announce the “Model 2” (sub-$30k EV) before July 1, 2026?
2%
Market YES
98%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 8.5% +6.5 pts
55/100
Low probability for Tesla to announce the Model 2 before July 2026.
Tesla announces formal Intel partnership for AI chip fab by June 30, 2026
21.69%
Market YES
78%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 28.19% +6.5 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will Tesla cease to be the most valuable automaker by market cap for any amount of time before the end of 2027?
17.27%
Market YES
83%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 23.77% +6.5 pts
45/100
Market suggests Tesla will likely remain the most valuable automaker until 2028.
Will Anthropic release a model with a higher version number than 4.6 by April 15th?
42%
Market YES
58%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 50.63% +6.5 pts
55/100
Market shows a slight preference for NO on Anthropic releasing a higher version than 4.6 by April 15
Will "Bentham’s Bulldog is wrong about AI risk" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
13.9%
Market YES
86%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 20.4% +6.5 pts
40/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 40/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will Tesla declare bankruptcy or be acquired by the end of 2029?
20%
Market YES
80%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 26.5% +6.5 pts
45/100
Market leans towards Tesla avoiding bankruptcy or acquisition by 2029.
Top car company licenses Tesla autopilot by mid 2027 for US markets
27.66%
Market YES
72%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 34.16% +6.5 pts
50/100
Market leans towards no car company licensing Tesla autopilot by mid-2027.
Will Microsoft buy Reddit before 2029?
20.94%
Market YES
79%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 27.44% +6.5 pts
45/100
Market leans towards Microsoft not buying Reddit by 2029.
Will a country ban advanced AI systems before 2027?
18.38%
Market YES
82%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 23.62% +6.5 pts
55/100
Low probability of a country banning advanced AI systems before 2027.
Will Paris be the hub of AI in Europe by the end of 2027?
38%
Market YES
62%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 45.5% +6.5 pts
45/100
Paris has a 39% chance of becoming Europe's AI hub by 2027, with mixed market sentiment.
Will Apple announce an iPhone Air 2 in 2026 event?
28%
Market YES
72%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 55.46% +6.5 pts
50/100
Market shows a near split on the likelihood of an iPhone Air 2 announcement in 2026.
Will a major tech company publicly pause or limit AI development due to safety concerns before January 1, 2027?
23.56%
Market YES
76%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 26.83% +6.5 pts
55/100
Low probability of a major tech company pausing AI development due to safety concerns before 2027.
Will Claude Sonnet 5 exceed 85% on SWE-bench verified?
47.02%
Market YES
53%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 53.52% +6.5 pts
50/100
Market sentiment is split on Claude Sonnet 5 exceeding 85% on SWE-bench.
Will Emmanuel Macron publicly call for a global halt in AI progress before 2028?
16.8%
Market YES
83%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 23.3% +6.5 pts
45/100
Low probability of Macron calling for a global AI halt before 2028.
Will Anthropic win its lawsuit against the Pentagon supply-chain designation by June 2026?
69.61%
Market YES
30%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 31.5% +6.5 pts
55/100
The market indicates a low probability of Anthropic winning its lawsuit against the Pentagon.
Any study (n>1000) shows reduction in unassisted problem-solving among heavy AI users by end 2026?
41%
Market YES
59%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 47.5% +6.5 pts
50/100
Market shows mixed expectations on AI's impact on problem-solving by 2026.
Will an LLM from OpenAI beat a FIDE grandmaster in chess by the end of 2028?
48%
Market YES
52%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 54.5% +6.5 pts
45/100
The market shows a close probability for an LLM beating a grandmaster by 2028.
OpenAI announces an interactive world model by June 1st 2026?
11.44%
Market YES
89%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 23.86% +6.5 pts
50/100
Market leans towards OpenAI not announcing an interactive world model by June 2026.
Will OpenAI release a super-app combining ChatGPT, Codex, and Atlass apps, before May 1 2026?
20%
Market YES
80%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 54.96% +6.5 pts
55/100
Market shows a near-even split on OpenAI's super-app release by May 2026.
Will AI solve a famous unsolved crime before April of 2028?
20.92%
Market YES
79%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 27.42% +6.5 pts
45/100
The market leans towards AI not solving a famous unsolved crime by April 2028.
Will Deepseek release Deepseek V3.3?
11.18%
Market YES
89%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 17.68% +6.5 pts
40/100
The market indicates a low probability of Deepseek releasing V3.3.
Will a misaligned AI kill 1% of the world population within any 12 month period before 2030?
7%
Market YES
93%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 13.5% +6.5 pts
45/100
Low probability of a misaligned AI causing significant harm before 2030.
Will Chat GPT 7 release before the end of 2027?
31.57%
Market YES
68%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 38.07% +6.5 pts
45/100
Market leans towards Chat GPT 7 not releasing before 2028.
Will more people travel between cities by self driving car than by inter city rail before 2037
47%
Market YES
53%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 53.5% +6.5 pts
45/100
Travel by self-driving cars is nearly tied with intercity rail by 2037.
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