Markets / AI & Tech

🤖 AI & Tech Markets

1,097 live markets · AI Pulse Scores on every one

⚡ Top Edge 🎯 High Confidence 💰 Most Volume 🆕 Newest
Will more people travel between cities by self driving car than by inter city rail before 2037
47%
Market YES
53%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 53.5% +6.5 pts
45/100
Travel by self-driving cars is nearly tied with intercity rail by 2037.
Will an LLM from OpenAI beat a FIDE grandmaster in chess by the end of 2028?
48%
Market YES
52%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 54.5% +6.5 pts
45/100
The market shows a close probability for an LLM beating a grandmaster by 2028.
OpenAI announces an interactive world model by June 1st 2026?
11.44%
Market YES
89%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 23.86% +6.5 pts
50/100
Market leans towards OpenAI not announcing an interactive world model by June 2026.
Will OpenAI release a super-app combining ChatGPT, Codex, and Atlass apps, before May 1 2026?
20%
Market YES
80%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 54.96% +6.5 pts
55/100
Market shows a near-even split on OpenAI's super-app release by May 2026.
Will AI solve a famous unsolved crime before April of 2028?
20.92%
Market YES
79%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 27.42% +6.5 pts
45/100
The market leans towards AI not solving a famous unsolved crime by April 2028.
Any study (n>1000) shows reduction in unassisted problem-solving among heavy AI users by end 2026?
41%
Market YES
59%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 47.5% +6.5 pts
50/100
Market shows mixed expectations on AI's impact on problem-solving by 2026.
Does an AI disaster kill at least 1,000,000 people before 2040?
21.61%
Market YES
78%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 28.11% +6.5 pts
45/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 45/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will Deepseek release Deepseek V3.3?
11.18%
Market YES
89%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 17.68% +6.5 pts
40/100
The market indicates a low probability of Deepseek releasing V3.3.
Will Chat GPT 7 release before the end of 2027?
31.57%
Market YES
68%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 38.07% +6.5 pts
45/100
Market leans towards Chat GPT 7 not releasing before 2028.
Will a misaligned AI kill 1% of the world population within any 12 month period before 2030?
7%
Market YES
93%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 13.5% +6.5 pts
45/100
Low probability of a misaligned AI causing significant harm before 2030.
Will Google release a Gemini version > 3.1 before May 2026?
33.02%
Market YES
67%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 56.5% +6.5 pts
55/100
Market shows equal probability for Google releasing Gemini > 3.1 before May 2026.
Will Lego IPO before the end of 2029?
17.72%
Market YES
82%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 24.22% +6.5 pts
45/100
The market indicates a low probability of Lego going public by 2029.
Will Americans believe AI does more good than harm in 2026, according to Gallup?
15.55%
Market YES
84%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 22.05% +6.5 pts
50/100
Most Americans are expected to believe AI does more harm than good by 2026.
Will AI achieve AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) by 2030?
47.49%
Market YES
53%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 53.99% +6.5 pts
45/100
Market shows a near split on AI achieving AGI by 2030.
Will more than 1000 deaths be caused by misaligned AI before 2028?
14.37%
Market YES
86%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 20.87% +6.5 pts
45/100
Market suggests low probability of over 1000 AI-related deaths by 2028.
Will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2028?
29%
Market YES
71%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 35.5% +6.5 pts
45/100
Market leans towards robots not passing Wozniak's test by 2028.
Will "Anthropic's leading researchers acted as mode..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
13.66%
Market YES
86%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 20.16% +6.5 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
How much AI extinction risk would you accept?
13.95%
Market YES
86%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 20.45% +6.5 pts
40/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 40/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Claude Mythos releases alongside a more expensive subscription plan in Claude.ai
17.19%
Market YES
83%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 23.69% +6.5 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
GPT-Zero: By 2030, will anyone develop an AI with a massive GPT-like knowledge base that it taught itself?
34.93%
Market YES
65%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 41.43% +6.5 pts
40/100
Market leans towards no development of self-taught AI by 2030.
Will OpenAI have significant financial troubles in 2026?
31.05%
Market YES
69%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 31.09% +6.5 pts
50/100
Market indicates low probability of OpenAI facing financial troubles in 2026.
At the start of 2030 will I believe that OpenAI had AGI in 2024?
9.88%
Market YES
90%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 16.38% +6.5 pts
40/100
Low belief in OpenAI achieving AGI by 2024, with a strong majority predicting otherwise.
Will OpenAI AND xAI have an IPO in 2026?
25%
Market YES
75%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 31.5% +6.5 pts
50/100
Market leans towards no IPO for OpenAI and xAI in 2026.
Will my tech startup, Weather Brother, make $100k (USD) by June 30, 2026?
19.22%
Market YES
81%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 25.72% +6.5 pts
55/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
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