Markets / AI & Tech

🤖 AI & Tech Markets

1,097 live markets · AI Pulse Scores on every one

⚡ Top Edge 🎯 High Confidence 💰 Most Volume 🆕 Newest
Will ai take over in 5 years?
20.62%
Market YES
79%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 27.12% +6.5 pts
40/100
The market indicates a low probability of AI taking over in five years.
Will major tech company announce functional brain-computer interface able to read complex human thoughts by end of 2030?
26.69%
Market YES
73%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 33.19% +6.5 pts
45/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 45/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will an AI agent write a New York Times bestselling book by end of 2028?
33.67%
Market YES
66%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 40.17% +6.5 pts
45/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 45/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will the EU announce new emergency AI regulations or an AGI development pause before May 1, 2026?
13.91%
Market YES
86%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 20.41% +6.5 pts
55/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will Apple ship a Gemini-powered Siri update to iPhones in 2026?
48%
Market YES
52%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 54.5% +6.5 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: uncertain — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Daily LLM assistant personal usage exceeds 2 hours for >10% of users by end-2025?
31.62%
Market YES
68%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 38.12% +6.5 pts
50/100
Market favors NO on daily LLM assistant usage exceeding 2 hours by 2025.
Will there be a robot uprising by 2035?
9.8%
Market YES
90%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 16.3% +6.5 pts
45/100
Low probability of a robot uprising by 2035 according to current market data.
Will Elon Musk's Tesla release a super long-term battery or breakthrough energy technology that lasts months or years wi
7.53%
Market YES
92%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 14.03% +6.5 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will OpenAI pause capabilities R&D voluntarily before 2027?
13.23%
Market YES
87%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 19.73% +6.5 pts
55/100
The market indicates a low probability of OpenAI pausing R&D before 2027.
Will OpenAI cease to exist before turning a profit?
48%
Market YES
52%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 54.5% +6.5 pts
45/100
Market shows a near split on OpenAI's future profitability.
OpenAI images have a useful and hard to remove watermark, by mid 2026
27.84%
Market YES
72%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 43.32% +6.5 pts
50/100
Market leans towards OpenAI images lacking a strong watermark by mid-2026.
Will any major Hollywood film released before 2027 be entirely AI-generated?
14.16%
Market YES
86%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $3K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 37.5% +6.5 pts
55/100
The market leans towards no major Hollywood film being fully AI-generated by 2027.
Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027
34.97%
Market YES
65%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 37.5% +6.5 pts
55/100
The market suggests a low likelihood of countries banning advanced AI by 2027.
Nvidia will compete at the foundation layer by Jan 1, 2028
49.39%
Market YES
51%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 55.89% +6.5 pts
40/100
Market shows a near-even split on Nvidia's competition status by 2028.
Will humanity wipe out AI?
9.92%
Market YES
90%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 16.42% +6.5 pts
40/100
The market indicates a low probability of humanity wiping out AI.
Is Sora's shutdown the start of an AI bubble pop by 2028?
19%
Market YES
81%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 26.03% +6.5 pts
45/100
The market leans towards Sora's shutdown not signaling an AI bubble pop by 2028.
What will AI score on TheAgentCompany benchmark in early 2026?
43.82%
Market YES
56%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 50.32% +6.5 pts
50/100
Market shows a close split on AI's benchmark score in early 2026.
Will manifold introduce LLM-based spam detection by EOY 2026?
40.12%
Market YES
60%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 46.62% +6.5 pts
55/100
Market shows mixed views on LLM-based spam detection by EOY 2026.
Will an AI lab consult a theologian for alignment research in 2026?
40.93%
Market YES
59%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 39.5% +6.5 pts
50/100
The market leans towards no theologian consultation for AI alignment in 2026.
AI races: NC-01 AI super PAC spending after the primary?
50%
Market YES
50%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 56.5% +6.5 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $400-$410 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 16 – Mar 20?
6.5%
Market YES
94%
Market NO
Polymarket
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 13% +6.5 pts
50/100
Market shows low probability for Microsoft closing between $400-$410 this week.
Will one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2028?
32.29%
Market YES
68%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 38.79% +6.5 pts
45/100
The market favors a 'no' on AI researchers claiming an AI winter before 2028.
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $380-$390 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 16 – Mar 20?
40.5%
Market YES
60%
Market NO
Polymarket
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 47% +6.5 pts
55/100
Pulse verdict: uncertain — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will an international pause on large AI training runs be in effect on Jan 1, 2028?
9%
Market YES
91%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 15.5% +6.5 pts
40/100
Low probability of an international pause on AI training runs by 2028.
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