AI & Tech Prediction Markets

Will there be a state-of-the-art LLM that is NOT based on next raw token prediction before 2029?

67.46%

Market YES

33%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 60.46% -7 pts

45/100

Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 45/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.

Now Amazon buys Konami on 2034!

67.92%

Market YES

32%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 60.92% -7 pts

40/100

Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 40/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.

AI will not cause any catastrophes in 2026

89.87%

Market YES

10%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $2K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 84.87% -5 pts

55/100

Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 55/100. Market appears fairly priced.

Will I be the top google result for my name by the end of 2027?

27.91%

Market YES

72%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 34.41% +6.5 pts

45/100

Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 45/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.

Will Claude Haiku 4.6 be released? (before Claude 4.7/5/etc)

20.71%

Market YES

79%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 27.21% +6.5 pts

55/100

Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.

Will one of the big labs (Anthropic, OAI, Google, or XAI) release an OpenClaw style agent by end of April 30th

30.77%

Market YES

69%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 37.27% +6.5 pts

50/100

Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.

Will a United States judge or clerk cite an incorrect fact originating from ChatGPT in a court ruling?

87.5%

Market YES

13%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 80.5% -7 pts

40/100

High probability of a judge citing incorrect ChatGPT facts in rulings.

Will Anthropic go public NOT via an IPO?

26%

Market YES

74%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 32.5% +6.5 pts

50/100

The market leans towards Anthropic not going public outside an IPO.

Will OpenAI announce a new GPT-5-level model before 1 July 2026?

94.11%

Market YES

6%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $4K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 89.11% -5 pts

60/100

High probability for OpenAI announcing a new model before July 2026.

Will a multi-agent AI system publicly outperform a solo frontier model on a live benchmark before July 2026?

75.83%

Market YES

24%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 68.83% -7 pts

55/100

Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.

Will Microsoft Copilot inject ads into unrelated commits again?

68%

Market YES

32%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 61% -7 pts

50/100

Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.

AI beats Minecraft (RSG) in under 7 minutes before 2028?

12.59%

Market YES

87%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $2K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 17.09% +4.5 pts

45/100

Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 45/100. Market appears fairly priced.

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $180 on any trading day before April 24, 2026?

34.76%

Market YES

65%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 41.26% +6.5 pts

55/100

Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.

Will AI be Time's person of the year in 2025 OR 2026?

5.83%

Market YES

94%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $3K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 10.33% +4.5 pts

55/100

The market shows low confidence in AI being Time's person of the year in 2025 or 2026.

Will I think all AI hell broke loose in 2026?

9.05%

Market YES

91%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $16K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 25.94% +4.5 pts

55/100

The market suggests a low probability of perceiving AI chaos in 2026.

By the end of 2027, will AI be able to do taxes as good as an average accountant?

69.42%

Market YES

31%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $1K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 64.42% -5 pts

45/100

Market suggests AI will match average accountants in tax preparation by 2027.

Will a critically acclaimed video game feature AI-generated dialogue in 2026?

39%

Market YES

61%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $5K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 43.5% +4.5 pts

55/100

The market favors no AI-generated dialogue in critically acclaimed games by 2026.

GPT-6 released in 2026?

74.36%

Market YES

26%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $6K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 69.36% -5 pts

55/100

The market predicts a 74.36% chance of GPT-6 being released in 2026.

SOAI#7: A movie or short film produced with significant use of AI wins major audience praise and sparks backlash

63.83%

Market YES

36%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $3K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 58.83% -5 pts

55/100

There's a 63.83% chance an AI-produced film will win audience praise and face backlash.

Will the US pass a federal AI law before Dec 31, 2026?

25.25%

Market YES

75%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 31.75% +6.5 pts

55/100

Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.

Will Tesla Optimus Gen-2 be available for *Sale* General Availability (GA) by 2026?

10%

Market YES

90%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $4K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 14.5% +4.5 pts

60/100

Market predicts low likelihood of Tesla Optimus Gen-2 being available by 2026.

Will OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or Meta release a model with context window >= 5M tokens before Dec 31, 2026?

72.22%

Market YES

28%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 65.22% -7 pts

55/100

Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.

Will any G7 country pass a mandatory AI-generated content labeling law before Dec 31, 2026?

33.57%

Market YES

66%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 40.07% +6.5 pts

55/100

G7 countries are unlikely to pass AI content labeling laws by 2026.

Will Elon win his case against OpenAI?

60%

Market YES

40%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 56.5% -3.5 pts

50/100

Market leans towards Elon winning his case against OpenAI with a 60% probability.

🤖 AI & Tech Markets