AI & Tech Prediction Markets

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

25.27%

Market YES

75%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $11.9M

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 32.66% +4.5 pts

50/100

Market suggests low confidence in AI generating full high-quality movies by 2028.

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?

5.33%

Market YES

95%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $7.3M

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 9.83% +4.5 pts

55/100

Low market probability suggests minimal concern over AI causing human extinction by 2030.

Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?

0.05%

Market YES

100%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $4.6M

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 1.65% +1.5 pts

90/100

Amazon is unlikely to be the largest company by market cap on March 31.

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100

13.99%

Market YES

86%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $4.2M

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 18.25% +4.5 pts

55/100

Market indicates low probability of AI wiping out humanity by 2100.

Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?

0.05%

Market YES

100%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $3.7M

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 1.65% +1.5 pts

90/100

The market strongly favors Tesla not being the largest company by market cap on March 31.

Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

0.05%

Market YES

100%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $3.1M

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 1.65% +1.5 pts

75/100

The market strongly favors that Baidu will not have the best AI model by March 2026.

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?

99.9%

Market YES

0%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $3M

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 91.5% -2 pts

80/100

NVIDIA has a high probability of being the largest company by market cap on March 31.

Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?

0.05%

Market YES

100%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $2.6M

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 1.65% +1.5 pts

90/100

Microsoft is unlikely to be the largest company by market cap on March 31.

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

88.01%

Market YES

12%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $2.4M

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 78.26% -5 pts

50/100

AI is expected to be a major political issue by 2028, similar to abortion.

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?

0.05%

Market YES

100%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $1.8M

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 6.3% +1.5 pts

80/100

Low probability for Apple to be largest by market cap on March 31.

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2040?

7.73%

Market YES

92%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $1.7M

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 12.5% +4.5 pts

55/100

The market shows a low probability of AI wiping out humanity before 2040.

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

99.75%

Market YES

0%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $1.7M

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 76.55% -2 pts

75/100

Market favors Anthropic to have the best AI model by March 2026.

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

0.1%

Market YES

100%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $1.7M

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 4.55% +1.5 pts

75/100

Market favors NO for OpenAI having the best AI model by March 2026.

Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

1.4%

Market YES

99%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $1.6M

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 5.25% +3 pts

60/100

DeepSeek is unlikely to have the best AI model by April 2026.

Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

0.05%

Market YES

100%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $1.5M

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 3.25% +1.5 pts

75/100

DeepSeek is unlikely to have the best AI model by March 2026.

Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

0.05%

Market YES

100%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $1.4M

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 1.65% +1.5 pts

75/100

Market strongly favors NO for Moonshot having the best AI model by March 2026.

Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

0.05%

Market YES

100%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $1.3M

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 1.7% +1.5 pts

75/100

The market strongly favors Z.ai not having the best AI model by March 2026.

Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

0.05%

Market YES

100%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $1.3M

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 3.7% +1.5 pts

75/100

The market strongly favors that xAI will not have the best AI model by March 2026.

Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

0.05%

Market YES

100%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $1.2M

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 1.65% +1.5 pts

75/100

Market indicates low confidence in Alibaba having the best AI model by March 2026.

Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX?

2.1%

Market YES

98%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $1.2M

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 6% +3 pts

50/100

The market strongly favors that SpaceX's public ticker will not be $SEX.

Will Z.ai have the best AI model for coding on March 31?

0.05%

Market YES

100%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $1.2M

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 3.15% +3 pts

60/100

Market strongly favors Z.ai not having the best coding AI model by March 31.

Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

0.05%

Market YES

100%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $1.2M

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 1.65% +1.5 pts

80/100

The market strongly favors that Meituan will not have the best AI model by March 2026.

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

0.15%

Market YES

100%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $1.2M

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 16% +1.5 pts

75/100

Market favors NO for Google having the best AI model by March 2026.

Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by April 3?

100%

Market YES

0%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $1.2M

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 98% -2 pts

90/100

Big AI is highly likely to be the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by April 3.

🤖 AI & Tech Markets