Markets / Geopolitics

🌍 Geopolitics Markets

3,140 live markets · AI Pulse Scores on every one

⚡ Top Edge 🎯 High Confidence 💰 Most Volume 🆕 Newest
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 9, 2026?
99.2%
Market YES
1%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $22K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 91.7% -7.5 pts
60/100
High probability of Israel striking Lebanon on March 9, 2026, with a slight undervaluation of the NO
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 26, 2026?
100%
Market YES
0%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $75K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 73.5% -7.5 pts
55/100
High probability suggests strong sentiment for Iran's military action against Israel by March 2026.
Games Total: O/U 2.5
100%
Market YES
0%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $5K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 92.5% -7.5 pts
60/100
The market strongly favors over 2.5 games in this geopolitical context.
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 29, 2026?
96.9%
Market YES
3%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $21K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 85% -7.5 pts
60/100
High probability of military action by Israel in Lebanon on March 29, 2026.
Will the US or Israel threaten to use nuclear weapons against Iran before 2029?
60%
Market YES
40%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 47% +7 pts
45/100
There's a 40% chance of a nuclear threat from the US or Israel against Iran before 2029.
Free Lottery (white dwarf)
35.26%
Market YES
65%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 42.26% +7 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will Russia and/or China get involved with the US/Israel and Iran situation?
21.91%
Market YES
78%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 28.91% +7 pts
50/100
Low probability of Russia or China engaging in the US/Israel and Iran situation.
Will the US lift all sanctions on Iran before 2029?
30.02%
Market YES
70%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 36% +7 pts
45/100
The market indicates a low probability of the US lifting all sanctions on Iran before 2029.
Will China HS 2805.30 exports for 4 months ending April 2026 exceed 18000 kg?
18.16%
Market YES
82%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 25.16% +7 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will Mexico join NATO by the end of 2026?
2.23%
Market YES
98%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 9.23% +7 pts
55/100
Low probability of Mexico joining NATO by 2026.
Will any European country initiate withdrawal from NATO by the end of 2027?
13.75%
Market YES
86%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 19.58% +7 pts
45/100
Low probability of any European country withdrawing from NATO by 2027.
Will Russia occupy Dnipro ( Dnepropetrovs'k ) at the end of 2026?
10.3%
Market YES
90%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 17.62% +7 pts
50/100
Low probability of Russia occupying Dnipro by 2026 according to market data.
Will Israel be destroyed before 2040, as predicted by Khamenei?
6.88%
Market YES
93%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 13.88% +7 pts
45/100
Low probability of Israel's destruction before 2040, with a strong consensus against it.
Will Israel recognize some other micronation again in 2026?
17.84%
Market YES
82%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 24.84% +7 pts
50/100
Low probability of Israel recognizing another micronation by 2026.
The war in Ukraine will last until 2028
26%
Market YES
74%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $1K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 43% +7 pts
40/100
Market suggests the war in Ukraine is unlikely to last until 2028.
Ukraine war ends in 2026?
19.98%
Market YES
80%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 31.65% +7 pts
50/100
Market suggests low probability for the Ukraine war ending by 2026.
The US takes Military Action against Cuba by end of May 2026
22%
Market YES
78%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $1K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 38% +7 pts
50/100
Market suggests low likelihood of US military action against Cuba by May 2026.
Federal court rules on War Powers Act constitutionality by July 2026?
14.27%
Market YES
86%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 21.27% +7 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Public coup attempt against a South American government?
14.23%
Market YES
86%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 21.23% +7 pts
50/100
Low probability of a public coup attempt against a South American government.
What probability will I assign to the Bnei Menashe being a lost tribe of Israel in 6 months?
29.16%
Market YES
71%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 36.16% +7 pts
50/100
Market leans towards the Bnei Menashe not being a lost tribe of Israel.
Will the avg BMI 99.9% Sc2O3 (EXW China) price for March 2026 exceed 1800 USD/kg?
16.6%
Market YES
83%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 23.6% +7 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will the avg BMI 99.9% Sc2O3 (EXW China) price for May 2026 exceed 1800 USD/kg?
18.25%
Market YES
82%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 25.25% +7 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will the US-Iran war be over by April 23rd?
17.83%
Market YES
82%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $1K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 32.53% +7 pts
55/100
The market suggests a low probability of the US-Iran war ending by April 23rd.
Will USA change Iran regime
28.9%
Market YES
71%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 35.9% +7 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
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