Markets / Geopolitics

🌍 Geopolitics Markets

3,140 live markets · AI Pulse Scores on every one

⚡ Top Edge 🎯 High Confidence 💰 Most Volume 🆕 Newest
Will Ukraine lose more territory in 2026 than it did in 2025?
35.18%
Market YES
65%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 42.18% +7 pts
50/100
Market suggests Ukraine is less likely to lose territory in 2026 than in 2025.
Will 2026 be the warmest year ever?
17%
Market YES
83%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 24% +7 pts
50/100
Market leans towards 2026 not being the warmest year ever.
Iran a liberal democracy in 2032, conditional on regime change in 2025 or 2026?
15.21%
Market YES
85%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 22.21% +7 pts
40/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 40/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will the US or Israel threaten to use nuclear weapons against Iran before 2029?
60%
Market YES
40%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 47% +7 pts
45/100
There's a 40% chance of a nuclear threat from the US or Israel against Iran before 2029.
Will the Iranian regime fall by end of June?
9.15%
Market YES
91%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 40.37% +7 pts
55/100
Market shows a higher likelihood of the Iranian regime remaining in power by June.
Will Iran succumb to U.S. demands?
9.98%
Market YES
90%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 16.98% +7 pts
40/100
Low probability of Iran succumbing to U.S. demands based on current market sentiment.
The US will put boots on Iranian soil by the end of April 1 2026
27.47%
Market YES
73%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 34.47% +7 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will I get a girlfriend before I get an award on USAMO?
20.17%
Market YES
80%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $1K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 24% +7 pts
55/100
Low probability of getting a girlfriend before winning a USAMO award.
What probability will I assign to the Bnei Menashe being a lost tribe of Israel in 6 months?
29.16%
Market YES
71%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 36.16% +7 pts
50/100
Market leans towards the Bnei Menashe not being a lost tribe of Israel.
Public coup attempt against a South American government?
14.23%
Market YES
86%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 21.23% +7 pts
50/100
Low probability of a public coup attempt against a South American government.
The US takes Military Action against Cuba by end of May 2026
22%
Market YES
78%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $1K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 38% +7 pts
50/100
Market suggests low likelihood of US military action against Cuba by May 2026.
Ukraine war ends in 2026?
19.98%
Market YES
80%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 31.65% +7 pts
50/100
Market suggests low probability for the Ukraine war ending by 2026.
The war in Ukraine will last until 2028
26%
Market YES
74%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $1K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 43% +7 pts
40/100
Market suggests the war in Ukraine is unlikely to last until 2028.
Will Russia occupy Dnipro ( Dnepropetrovs'k ) at the end of 2026?
10.3%
Market YES
90%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 17.62% +7 pts
50/100
Low probability of Russia occupying Dnipro by 2026 according to market data.
Will any European country initiate withdrawal from NATO by the end of 2027?
13.75%
Market YES
86%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 19.58% +7 pts
45/100
Low probability of any European country withdrawing from NATO by 2027.
Will Mexico join NATO by the end of 2026?
2.23%
Market YES
98%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 9.23% +7 pts
55/100
Low probability of Mexico joining NATO by 2026.
Will Russia and/or China get involved with the US/Israel and Iran situation?
21.91%
Market YES
78%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 28.91% +7 pts
50/100
Low probability of Russia or China engaging in the US/Israel and Iran situation.
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on March 23?
17.5%
Market YES
83%
Market NO
Polymarket
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 28.5% +7 pts
50/100
Market favors a NO outcome for Warsaw's temperature on March 23.
Will Iran strike Burj Khalifa by March 31?
12.5%
Market YES
88%
Market NO
Polymarket
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 31% +7 pts
55/100
Market indicates a low probability of Iran striking Burj Khalifa by March 31.
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on March 23?
6%
Market YES
94%
Market NO
Polymarket
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 10.5% +7 pts
50/100
The market strongly favors a NO outcome for Warsaw's temperature on March 23.
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on March 23?
18.5%
Market YES
82%
Market NO
Polymarket
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 25.5% +7 pts
55/100
Market predicts a low chance of Warsaw reaching 13°C on March 23.
Will the US military land troops on Qeshm before the end of April 2026?
18.81%
Market YES
81%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 25.81% +7 pts
55/100
Low probability of US military landing troops on Qeshm by April 2026.
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on March 23?
35.5%
Market YES
65%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $1K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 35.5% +7 pts
50/100
Market favors temperatures below 15°C in Warsaw on March 23.
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on March 23?
27.5%
Market YES
73%
Market NO
Polymarket
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 34% +7 pts
50/100
The market favors a NO outcome for Warsaw's temperature on March 23.
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