Markets / Geopolitics

🌍 Geopolitics Markets

3,140 live markets · AI Pulse Scores on every one

⚡ Top Edge 🎯 High Confidence 💰 Most Volume 🆕 Newest
Will Andrew Garfield appear in "Avengers: Secret Wars"?
35.75%
Market YES
64%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 45.39% +7 pts
50/100
Market shows mixed signals on Andrew Garfield's appearance in 'Avengers: Secret Wars'.
Will the United States regulate cryptocurrency due to its use in upcoming war before the end of 2027
22%
Market YES
78%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 29% +7 pts
45/100
Low probability of U.S. cryptocurrency regulation due to war by 2027.
Will the war in Ukraine end before the Iranian war?
19%
Market YES
81%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 26% +7 pts
45/100
The market favors the Iranian war ending before the Ukraine conflict.
Will the US put (ro)bots on the ground in Iran in 2026?
45.55%
Market YES
54%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $1K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 37.08% +7 pts
50/100
Market leans towards no US ground robots in Iran by 2026.
Will Terminator2 have at least 100 followers on X/Twitter by April 23, 2026?
9.99%
Market YES
90%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 16.99% +7 pts
55/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Le régime iranienne tombera 2 avril
12.34%
Market YES
88%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 15.22% +7 pts
50/100
The market shows low confidence in the fall of the Iranian regime by April 2.
will world war 3 start before GTA Vi?
20%
Market YES
80%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 27% +7 pts
55/100
Low probability of World War 3 starting before GTA VI release.
Will China bomb any country by the end of 2026?
12%
Market YES
88%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 19% +7 pts
55/100
Low probability of China bombing any country by 2026, with a strong NO sentiment.
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on March 23?
27.5%
Market YES
73%
Market NO
Polymarket
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 34% +7 pts
50/100
The market favors a NO outcome for Warsaw's temperature on March 23.
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on March 23?
35.5%
Market YES
65%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $1K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 35.5% +7 pts
50/100
Market favors temperatures below 15°C in Warsaw on March 23.
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on March 23?
17.5%
Market YES
83%
Market NO
Polymarket
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 28.5% +7 pts
50/100
Market favors a NO outcome for Warsaw's temperature on March 23.
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on March 23?
18.5%
Market YES
82%
Market NO
Polymarket
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 25.5% +7 pts
55/100
Market predicts a low chance of Warsaw reaching 13°C on March 23.
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on March 23?
6%
Market YES
94%
Market NO
Polymarket
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 10.5% +7 pts
50/100
The market strongly favors a NO outcome for Warsaw's temperature on March 23.
Will Iran strike Burj Khalifa by March 31?
12.5%
Market YES
88%
Market NO
Polymarket
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 31% +7 pts
55/100
Market indicates a low probability of Iran striking Burj Khalifa by March 31.
Will the US military land troops on Qeshm before the end of April 2026?
18.81%
Market YES
81%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 25.81% +7 pts
55/100
Low probability of US military landing troops on Qeshm by April 2026.
Will Iran strike Ras Tanura by March 31?
33.5%
Market YES
67%
Market NO
Polymarket
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 40.5% +7 pts
55/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
OpenAI Announces that its CEO/Leader will have AI components (Software + human or alone) by mid 2026
19%
Market YES
81%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 26% +7 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will Russia and Ukraine agree to a ceasefire before August 1, 2026?
15.56%
Market YES
84%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 26.54% +7 pts
55/100
The market indicates a low probability of a ceasefire agreement by August 2026.
Will Taiwan invade the PRC by 2050?
7.5%
Market YES
93%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 14.5% +7 pts
45/100
Low probability of Taiwan invading the PRC by 2050 according to market data.
If Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?
25.32%
Market YES
75%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $1K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 37.46% +7 pts
50/100
Market indicates a low probability of the Iranian regime falling if Israel strikes by March 2026.
If the US strikes Iran by June 30th, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?
25.32%
Market YES
75%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 39.3% +7 pts
50/100
Market shows skepticism about the Iranian regime falling if the US strikes by June 2026.
Will Elon Musk end up in Russia this year?
14%
Market YES
86%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 21% +7 pts
50/100
The market shows a low probability of Elon Musk visiting Russia this year.
Fatal terrorist attack via drone swarm in the West before 2026-06-18?
10.02%
Market YES
90%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 17.02% +7 pts
50/100
Low probability for a fatal drone swarm terrorist attack in the West by mid-2026.
Israel strikes Iran after US announces deal (before April 15)?
8.45%
Market YES
92%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 21% +7 pts
50/100
Low probability of Israel striking Iran before April 15 after US deal announcement.
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