Markets / Geopolitics

🌍 Geopolitics Markets

3,140 live markets · AI Pulse Scores on every one

⚡ Top Edge 🎯 High Confidence 💰 Most Volume 🆕 Newest
Humanoid robot kills human in Ukrain war in 2026?
8.72%
Market YES
91%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 15.72% +7 pts
50/100
Low probability for a humanoid robot killing a human in the Ukraine war by 2026.
Will Brazil join NATO by the end of 2028?
4%
Market YES
96%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 11% +7 pts
45/100
Low probability of Brazil joining NATO by 2028, with strong market skepticism.
Will "Kurdish Rebellion in Iran" article on Wikipedia list USA/CIA as a belligerent(not just allegedly) before 3/15
19.62%
Market YES
80%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 26.62% +7 pts
60/100
Low probability for the article to list USA/CIA as a belligerent by 3/15.
Will Armenia join NATO by 2033?
15.07%
Market YES
85%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 22.07% +7 pts
45/100
Low probability for Armenia joining NATO by 2033, with a majority favoring no.
Is Iran a forever war?
26.63%
Market YES
73%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 24% +7 pts
40/100
The market suggests a low probability of Iran being in a forever war.
Will Myanmar's military junta lose power before 2030?
25.21%
Market YES
75%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 32.21% +7 pts
45/100
Market indicates low probability of Myanmar's military junta losing power before 2030.
Will Elon Musk end up in Russia this year?
14%
Market YES
86%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 21% +7 pts
50/100
The market shows a low probability of Elon Musk visiting Russia this year.
Fatal terrorist attack via drone swarm in the West before 2026-06-18?
10.02%
Market YES
90%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 17.02% +7 pts
50/100
Low probability for a fatal drone swarm terrorist attack in the West by mid-2026.
Israel strikes Iran after US announces deal (before April 15)?
8.45%
Market YES
92%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 21% +7 pts
50/100
Low probability of Israel striking Iran before April 15 after US deal announcement.
Will Tobey Maguire appear in "Avengers: Secret Wars"?
39.76%
Market YES
60%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 46.76% +7 pts
50/100
Market shows mixed probabilities for Tobey Maguire's appearance in 'Avengers: Secret Wars'.
Will Iran and the United States establish formal diplomatic relations before 2030?
29.87%
Market YES
70%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 36.87% +7 pts
45/100
The market suggests low chances for US-Iran diplomatic relations by 2030.
Will a crossing of the Strait of Hormuz, between Iran and Oman or UAE, have started construction by 2040?
38.2%
Market YES
62%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 42% +7 pts
45/100
Construction across the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely by 2040.
Will "China Derangement Syndrome" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
8.02%
Market YES
92%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 14.09% +7 pts
40/100
Low probability for 'China Derangement Syndrome' to be a top post in LessWrong's 2026 review.
Will Crude oil supply impact due to Persian Gulf military conflict exceed 15 million barrels/day on May 31, 2026?
31.17%
Market YES
69%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 46.34% +7 pts
50/100
Market shows mixed views on crude oil supply impact from a Persian Gulf conflict by May 2026.
Will Russia take Poltava by EOY 2028?
19.13%
Market YES
81%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 26.13% +7 pts
45/100
Market shows low probability for Russia taking Poltava by 2028.
Will Israel attack Georgia, Armenia, Greece, Bulgaria in 2029?
1%
Market YES
99%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 8.19% +7 pts
40/100
Low probability of an Israeli attack on Georgia, Armenia, Greece, or Bulgaria in 2029.
Will the 2026 Academy Award for Best Picture go to a film produced by any of Netflix, Amazon, or Apple?
7.93%
Market YES
92%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 13.61% +7 pts
50/100
Low probability for a Netflix, Amazon, or Apple film winning Best Picture in 2026.
Will GRU Space land ANY hardware on the Moon by end of 2027?
5.12%
Market YES
95%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 12.12% +7 pts
45/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 45/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will Alexey Guzey become a Hero of the Russian Federation by EOY2060?
27.11%
Market YES
73%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 34.11% +7 pts
45/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 45/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will r/WorldNews unpin the Russia/Ukraine thread before EOY 2026?
24.97%
Market YES
75%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 31.97% +7 pts
55/100
Market favors 'NO' on unpinning the Russia/Ukraine thread by EOY 2026.
Will Xi Jinping be in Taiwan in 2027?
19.93%
Market YES
80%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 26.93% +7 pts
40/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 40/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will Iran get a new Supreme Leader before the end of April?
17%
Market YES
83%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 20.79% +7 pts
55/100
The market indicates a low probability for Iran to have a new Supreme Leader by April.
Will the United States military fully leave Iraq by the end of 2028?
36.77%
Market YES
63%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 43.77% +7 pts
45/100
The market suggests a higher likelihood of U.S. military remaining in Iraq by 2028.
Will China National Nuclear Corp announce commercial operation of the Linglong One reactor by April 1?
16.05%
Market YES
84%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 29.12% +7 pts
55/100
Low probability of Linglong One reactor's commercial operation by April 1.
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