Markets / Geopolitics

🌍 Geopolitics Markets

3,140 live markets · AI Pulse Scores on every one

⚡ Top Edge 🎯 High Confidence 💰 Most Volume 🆕 Newest
Will a nuclear disaster occur that scores a 7 on the International Nuclear Event Scale by EOY 2030?
13.46%
Market YES
87%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 20.46% +7 pts
45/100
Low probability of a nuclear disaster scoring 7 by 2030, with majority confidence in a 'NO' outcome.
Will Iran use Nuclear weapons?
6.41%
Market YES
94%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 14.47% +7 pts
40/100
Low probability of Iran using nuclear weapons according to market data.
Will White House post 100-119 posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026?
0%
Market YES
100%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $13K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 8.6% +7 pts
50/100
Market strongly favors fewer than 100 posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026.
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2028?
16.24%
Market YES
84%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 23.24% +7 pts
40/100
Market indicates low likelihood of a nuclear weapon being detonated in 2028.
China will directly engage in a military conflict before end of 2026
20.66%
Market YES
79%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 31.48% +7 pts
50/100
Market shows low probability for China engaging in military conflict by 2026.
Will there be a war between Iran and Pakistan before 2030?
39.64%
Market YES
60%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 46.64% +7 pts
45/100
Market shows a moderate chance of war between Iran and Pakistan before 2030.
Will Iran strike Syria by April 30, 2026?
28%
Market YES
72%
Market NO
Polymarket
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 35% +7 pts
55/100
Market indicates a low likelihood of Iran striking Syria by April 30, 2026.
If Iran's regime falls in 2026, will it be a surprise?
22.71%
Market YES
77%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 29.71% +7 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will Iran release the seized tanker in the Strait of Hormuz before April 15, 2026?
40%
Market YES
60%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 47% +7 pts
55/100
Pulse verdict: uncertain — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Does war solve more problems than it creates?
37.17%
Market YES
63%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 44.17% +7 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will China unveil a peer reviewed surgical cure for Alzheimers by the end of 2026?
9%
Market YES
91%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 17% +7 pts
55/100
Low probability of a surgical cure for Alzheimer's from China by 2026.
Will Iran sign a peace deal with the middle east countries
30%
Market YES
70%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 37% +7 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will >90% of the Gaza Strip and Israel be part of the same country before 2035?
7.23%
Market YES
93%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 14.23% +7 pts
45/100
The market indicates a low probability of Gaza and Israel unifying by 2035.
Will the US conduct a nuclear test before 2030?
23.65%
Market YES
76%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 30.65% +7 pts
45/100
The market indicates a low probability of the US conducting a nuclear test before 2030.
Russo-Ukrainian War ends officially by end of 2026?
34.45%
Market YES
66%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 41.45% +7 pts
50/100
The market indicates a low probability of the Russo-Ukrainian War ending by 2026.
Will the US and Iran announce a formal bilateral ceasefire or de-escalation agreement before June 30, 2026?
40%
Market YES
60%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 47% +7 pts
55/100
The market shows a divided outlook on a US-Iran ceasefire by mid-2026.
Will Iran and the US reach a formal nuclear deal by September 30, 2026?
23.18%
Market YES
77%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 30.18% +7 pts
55/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will the US and Iran reach a formal nuclear deal framework by July 1, 2026?
39.43%
Market YES
61%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 46.43% +7 pts
55/100
The market shows a low probability for a US-Iran nuclear deal by July 2026.
Will Iran cease to exist in 2026?
3.11%
Market YES
97%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 11% +7 pts
50/100
The market shows a strong belief that Iran will not cease to exist by 2026.
Will any of the following Western countries experience a successful coup by 2030?
15.17%
Market YES
85%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 22.17% +7 pts
45/100
Low probability of a successful coup in Western countries by 2030.
Will "Dispatch from Anthropic v. Department of War ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
11.16%
Market YES
89%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 18.16% +7 pts
40/100
Low probability for the post to be in the top fifty of LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review.
Will Warren Buffett be alive through the end of 2035?
10.18%
Market YES
90%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 17.18% +7 pts
40/100
Market shows low probability of Warren Buffett being alive by 2036.
Will the US and Iran reach a formal ceasefire agreement by April 30, 2026?
25.26%
Market YES
75%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 32.26% +7 pts
55/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will ysl go back to psych ward this time ?
33.24%
Market YES
67%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 40.24% +7 pts
55/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
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