Markets / Geopolitics

🌍 Geopolitics Markets

3,140 live markets · AI Pulse Scores on every one

⚡ Top Edge 🎯 High Confidence 💰 Most Volume 🆕 Newest

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2027?

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 63.75% -11 pts

High probability for a machine learning run exceeding 10^26 FLOP in China by 2027.

Will Conan O’Brien host the Academy Awards (Oscars) for a third consecutive year (2027)?

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 55.94% -11 pts

Market favors Conan O’Brien hosting the Oscars again with a 66.94% probability.

will Niger directly sell nuclear material to France in 2026?

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 54.73% -11 pts

Market shows a higher probability for Niger selling nuclear material to France in 2026.

China implements 30+ infrastructure connectivity projects in Africa by EOY 2027?

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 62.13% -11 pts

Market predicts China will implement over 30 infrastructure projects in Africa by 2027.

China CO2 emissions in 2026 less than in 2025?

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 71.14% -11 pts

Market indicates a strong belief that China's CO2 emissions will decrease in 2026.

Will China land humans on the Moon before the US returns astronauts to the lunar surface?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 43.95% -11 pts

Market favors China landing humans on the Moon before the US returns astronauts.

Will nuclear ballistic missile submarines become obsolete by 2100?

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 48.5% -11 pts

Pulse verdict: uncertain — confidence 45/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.

Will Israel Exist as a country in 2060?

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 79.11% -11 pts

The market shows a high probability that Israel will exist as a country in 2060.

Will Qatar halt LNG exports for >7 days due to Iran conflict by June 30, 2026?

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 65.42% -11 pts

Market indicates a high likelihood of Qatar halting LNG exports due to the Iran conflict.

Will China continue gallium export restrictions targeting Japan on May 1, 2026?

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 78.89% -11 pts

High probability suggests China will maintain gallium export restrictions on Japan by May 2026.

Will the United States lose the war against Iran?

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 51.92% -11 pts

Market leans towards the U.S. losing the war against Iran, but confidence is low.

Will Iran run out of ballistic missiles before the coalition runs out of interceptors?

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 68% -11 pts

Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.

Will Brent crude exceed $100/barrel due to Iran-Gulf conflict by July 31, 2026?

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 77.85% -11 pts

High probability for Brent crude exceeding $100/barrel by July 2026 due to Iran-Gulf tensions.

Will the official Farcaster client (formerly Warpcast) permanently cease as a social media platform by Dec 31, 2026?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 39.75% -11 pts

Market shows a near-even split on the future of Farcaster by 2026.

Will another Iranian official be killed

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 78.36% -11 pts

High probability of another Iranian official being killed according to market data.

Should the world ban nuclear weapons?

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 48.02% -11 pts

The market shows a slight preference for banning nuclear weapons, but opinions are closely divided.

Will Khamenei tweet again on March 19, 2026?

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 75.5% -11 pts

High probability that Khamenei will tweet on March 19, 2026.

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^25 FLOP in China before 2027?

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 70.62% -11 pts

High probability for exceeding 10^25 FLOP in China before 2027.

Will any non-USA country ease Russian oil sanctions or price caps?

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 63% -11 pts

There is a 74% chance that a non-USA country will ease Russian oil sanctions.

Will Israel still exist in 2100?

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 74.99% -11 pts

The market predicts a high likelihood of Israel's existence in 2100.

Will Hamas still be in power in Gaza on Cinco de Mayo 2026?

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 58.93% -11 pts

Market indicates a high probability of Hamas remaining in power by May 2026.

Will "One Battle After Another" win at least 6 awards at the 2026 oscars?

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 70.98% -11 pts

High probability for 'One Battle After Another' to win at least 6 Oscars.

Will a direct military conflict happen between Iran and Israel before 1 April 2026?

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 85.35% -11 pts

High probability of military conflict between Iran and Israel before April 2026.

Will Turkey remain a member of NATO by 2030?

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 72.09% -11 pts

Turkey is likely to remain in NATO by 2030, with high market confidence.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131