Markets / Geopolitics

🌍 Geopolitics Markets

3,140 live markets · AI Pulse Scores on every one

⚡ Top Edge 🎯 High Confidence 💰 Most Volume 🆕 Newest
Will White House post 100-119 posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026?
0%
Market YES
100%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $13K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 8.6% +7 pts
50/100
Market strongly favors fewer than 100 posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026.
Will Iran use Nuclear weapons?
6.41%
Market YES
94%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 14.47% +7 pts
40/100
Low probability of Iran using nuclear weapons according to market data.
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on March 29?
0.25%
Market YES
100%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $9K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 30% +7 pts
50/100
Market favors temperatures above 24°C in Taipei on March 29.
Will Saudi Arabia officially enter a military conflict against Iran by May 1, 2026?T
74.02%
Market YES
26%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 22.74% +7 pts
55/100
Low probability of Saudi Arabia entering conflict with Iran by May 2026.
Will there be a major nuclear disaster by 2030?
12.18%
Market YES
88%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 19.18% +7 pts
45/100
Low probability of a major nuclear disaster by 2030.
Will there be a mandatory military draft in the USA by the end of 2060?
31.95%
Market YES
68%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 38.95% +7 pts
45/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 45/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Iran conflict will be over in 7 days
3.05%
Market YES
97%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $1K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 29.74% +7 pts
50/100
The market indicates a low probability of the Iran conflict ending in 7 days.
Will I be conscripted against my will into the British military by 2030?
7.24%
Market YES
93%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 14.24% +7 pts
45/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 45/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on March 29?
0.1%
Market YES
100%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $5K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 8.5% +7 pts
50/100
Market predicts Taipei's temperature will not reach 31°C on March 29.
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on March 29?
0.1%
Market YES
100%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $6K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 9.35% +7 pts
50/100
Market suggests low likelihood of Taipei reaching 30°C on March 29.
"Trojan horse"-like drone attack on US military planes before 2028
31.2%
Market YES
69%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 38.2% +7 pts
40/100
Market shows skepticism about a drone attack on US military planes before 2028.
At least one fatality from nuclear weapons in 2027?
7.45%
Market YES
93%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 14.45% +7 pts
40/100
Market shows low probability of nuclear weapon fatalities in 2027.
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on March 29?
0.2%
Market YES
100%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $7K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 13.5% +7 pts
50/100
Market strongly favors temperatures below 28°C in Taipei on March 29.
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on March 29?
0.15%
Market YES
100%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $9K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 22% +7 pts
50/100
The market indicates a low probability for Taipei's temperature to reach 27°C on March 29.
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on March 29?
0.2%
Market YES
100%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $8K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 23.5% +7 pts
50/100
Low probability for Taipei's temperature reaching 26°C on March 29.
Jet Lag: the Game visits P.R.China before 2030?
36%
Market YES
64%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 43% +7 pts
40/100
The market suggests a low likelihood of Jet Lag: the Game visiting P.R. China before 2030.
Will Iran change it's name to Persia in 2026?
3.77%
Market YES
96%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 10.78% +7 pts
50/100
The market strongly favors that Iran will not change its name to Persia in 2026.
Will USA leave NATO by the end of 2027?
13.74%
Market YES
86%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 20.74% +7 pts
45/100
Market indicates low likelihood of USA leaving NATO by 2027.
Will Greg Yang win a turing award
35.69%
Market YES
64%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 42.69% +7 pts
40/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 40/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will China and the US become AI partners in 2026? Removal of chips sanction or a co-developed LLM.
16.36%
Market YES
84%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 23.36% +7 pts
50/100
The market indicates a low probability of US-China AI partnership by 2026.
Will there be US troops in Iran’s Kharg island before April 1?
5.89%
Market YES
94%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $1K
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 47% +7 pts
55/100
Market shows mixed expectations for US troops in Iran's Kharg island by April 1.
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C or below on March 29?
98.65%
Market YES
1%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $19K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 16% +7 pts
50/100
The market strongly favors temperatures above 22°C in Taipei on March 29.
Will we see a nuclear weapon used to attack another country within the next decade?
10.51%
Market YES
89%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 17.51% +7 pts
40/100
Low probability of nuclear weapon use in the next decade, with a strong consensus against it.
Will a socialist or communist revolution happen in a NATO country by 2030?
10.46%
Market YES
90%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 17.46% +7 pts
45/100
Low probability for a socialist or communist revolution in NATO countries by 2030.
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