Markets / Geopolitics

🌍 Geopolitics Markets

3,140 live markets · AI Pulse Scores on every one

⚡ Top Edge 🎯 High Confidence 💰 Most Volume 🆕 Newest
Reza Pahlavi enters Iran by end of year 2026
16.92%
Market YES
83%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 34.05% +5 pts
55/100
Market shows a low probability for Reza Pahlavi entering Iran by 2026.
Will the Russian Federation invade a NATO country before 2028?
13%
Market YES
87%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $4K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 18% +5 pts
50/100
Low probability of a Russian invasion of NATO before 2028.
Russia attacks a NATO member before 2031?
32%
Market YES
68%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $3K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 37% +5 pts
45/100
Market suggests low likelihood of Russia attacking a NATO member before 2031.
Will Russia invade a NATO country before 2030?
16.53%
Market YES
83%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $8K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 25% +5 pts
50/100
The market indicates a low probability of a Russian invasion of a NATO country before 2030.
Will Ukraine have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2035?
25.64%
Market YES
74%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 30.64% +5 pts
50/100
Market indicates low probability of Ukraine acquiring nuclear weapons by 2035.
Will Russia invade any NATO country before 31 December 2026?
3.86%
Market YES
96%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $5K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 10% +5 pts
60/100
Low probability of a Russian invasion of NATO countries before 2027.
Nuclear weapon used offensively in 2026
4.85%
Market YES
95%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $14K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 11% +5 pts
55/100
Low probability of nuclear weapon use offensively in 2026.
Will Russia pay any reparations to Ukraine by 2030?
9.05%
Market YES
91%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $6K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 13.97% +5 pts
50/100
Low probability of Russia paying reparations to Ukraine by 2030.
Number of operational nuclear reactors in the world has surpasses 800 anytime before mid 2039
26.34%
Market YES
74%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $1K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 31.34% +5 pts
45/100
Market indicates low likelihood of surpassing 800 operational nuclear reactors by mid-2039.
Will a nuclear fusion reaction be maintained continuously for >24hrs before the end of 2030?
37.1%
Market YES
63%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $3K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 42.1% +5 pts
50/100
Market leans towards no continuous nuclear fusion by 2030.
Will Israel return Lebanon/Hezbollah to the stone age before 2028?
10.18%
Market YES
90%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $4K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 15.18% +5 pts
50/100
Low probability for Israel to significantly weaken Hezbollah by 2028.
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran this year?
12.38%
Market YES
88%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $9K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 20.08% +5 pts
55/100
Low probability for Reza Pahlavi to lead Iran this year, with market favoring a 'NO' outcome.
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-28.5)
0.05%
Market YES
100%
Market NO
Polymarket
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 25.5% +5 pts
65/100
Market favors a NO outcome for Michigan Wolverines covering the spread.
Will the first SMR nuclear power plant in Poland produce energy before 2029?
9.93%
Market YES
90%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 14.93% +5 pts
50/100
Low probability of Poland's first SMR nuclear plant producing energy before 2029.
United States and Iran reach and formally announce a new agreement by March 20, 2026
2.59%
Market YES
97%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 11.25% +5 pts
55/100
Low probability for a U.S.-Iran agreement by March 2026, with market favoring a NO outcome.
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-25.5)
0.05%
Market YES
100%
Market NO
Polymarket
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 29.5% +5 pts
65/100
Market favors NO on Michigan covering a large spread.
Will a nuclear war start over a shitty old cargo ship in 2026?
5%
Market YES
95%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 10% +5 pts
55/100
The market indicates a low probability of nuclear war over a cargo ship in 2026.
Will White House post 120-139 posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026?
0%
Market YES
100%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $6K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 10.95% +5 pts
55/100
Market favors fewer than 120-139 posts from the White House during the specified week.
Will White House post 180-199 posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026?
1.6%
Market YES
98%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $88K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 27% +5 pts
55/100
The market favors fewer than 180 posts from the White House during the specified week.
At the end of the war, will Ukraine control any territory they didn’t control at the start?
13.72%
Market YES
86%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $100K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 18.87% +5 pts
55/100
Market favors that Ukraine will not control new territory by war's end.
Will the US conduct a nuclear test in 2026?
10.06%
Market YES
90%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 15% +5 pts
55/100
Low probability of a US nuclear test in 2026, with market favoring a NO outcome.
Will Powell say "Supreme Court" during March press conference?
0%
Market YES
100%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $14K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 40% +5 pts
55/100
Market favors Powell not mentioning 'Supreme Court' in his upcoming press conference.
Howard Bison vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 176.5
100%
Market YES
0%
Market NO
Polymarket
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 30.5% +5 pts
65/100
Market favors a NO outcome for the O/U at 176.5 with a moderate confidence level.
Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during March press conference?
0%
Market YES
100%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $32K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 18% +5 pts
55/100
Market suggests low likelihood of Powell mentioning 'Crypto' or 'Bitcoin' in March.
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