Markets / Geopolitics

🌍 Geopolitics Markets

3,140 live markets · AI Pulse Scores on every one

⚡ Top Edge 🎯 High Confidence 💰 Most Volume 🆕 Newest
Will the International Court of Justice (ICJ) determine that Israel committed genocide in Gaza?
13.76%
Market YES
86%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $102K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 18.8% +5 pts
45/100
The market shows low probability for ICJ ruling genocide by Israel in Gaza.
Will a nuclear propelled rocket be tested in space before 2027?
1.82%
Market YES
98%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $9K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 6.82% +5 pts
60/100
Low probability of a nuclear propelled rocket test in space before 2027.
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs. Arkansas Razorbacks: O/U 178.5
0.05%
Market YES
100%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $1K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 30% +5 pts
60/100
Market favors a low-scoring game between Hawaii and Arkansas.
Will Ukraine join NATO by 2030?
16.17%
Market YES
84%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $30K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 21.17% +5 pts
50/100
Low probability for Ukraine joining NATO by 2030, with market favoring a NO outcome.
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
32.52%
Market YES
67%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $554K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 36.96% +5 pts
50/100
Market indicates a low probability of a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by China before 2030.
Will Iran be a democracy in 2030?
27.97%
Market YES
72%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 32.97% +5 pts
45/100
The market indicates a low probability for Iran becoming a democracy by 2030.
Will there be a 'World War Three' before 2050?
34.53%
Market YES
65%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $22K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 38.36% +5 pts
50/100
The market suggests a low probability of World War Three occurring before 2050.
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win a Turing Award before 2038?
3.92%
Market YES
96%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $1K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 8.92% +5 pts
50/100
Market indicates low probability of Yudkowsky winning a Turing Award by 2038.
Will russia occupy kyiv at any point before 2030?
13%
Market YES
87%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $31K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 18% +5 pts
50/100
Market indicates low probability of Russia occupying Kyiv before 2030.
Will Helion provide nuclear fusion power to a data center before end of 2028?
17.82%
Market YES
82%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $4K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 22.82% +5 pts
50/100
Market favors 'NO' on Helion providing fusion power by 2028.
Will PayPal be acquired before 2027?
31%
Market YES
69%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $16.8M
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 36% +5 pts
65/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 65/100. Market appears fairly priced.
Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027?
14.6%
Market YES
85%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $16.8M
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 19.6% +5 pts
65/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 65/100. Market appears fairly priced.
Will Russia run out of money?
22.88%
Market YES
77%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 27.88% +5 pts
45/100
The market shows a low probability of Russia running out of money.
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2026?
11.5%
Market YES
89%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $28K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 15.21% +5 pts
55/100
The market suggests a low likelihood of nuclear weapons being detonated in 2026.
Will White House post 200+ posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026?
0.15%
Market YES
100%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $13K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 15.5% +5 pts
55/100
Market favors NO on 200+ White House posts from March 24-31, 2026.
Will Powell say "Simulation" during March press conference?
0%
Market YES
100%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $5K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 20.5% +5 pts
60/100
Market suggests low likelihood of Powell saying 'Simulation' in March.
Will China invade Taiwan before 2030?
39%
Market YES
61%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $19K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 44% +5 pts
50/100
The market suggests a lower likelihood of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan before 2030.
Will Lebanon be at war with Israel before the end of the Israel-Hamas Conflict?
21.85%
Market YES
78%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $11K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 23.35% +5 pts
50/100
The market suggests a low probability of war between Lebanon and Israel before the conflict ends.
Will Europe find a peaceful agreement with Iran to pass the Strait of Hormuz in 2026 while the US/Iran war continues?
20.64%
Market YES
79%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 20.25% +5 pts
55/100
The market indicates a low probability of a peaceful agreement with Iran by 2026.
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on March 29?
0.2%
Market YES
100%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $10K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 33% +5 pts
60/100
Market favors temperatures above 25°C in Taipei on March 29.
Will Israel fully annex the west bank by 2045?
23.5%
Market YES
77%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $6K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 28.5% +5 pts
50/100
The market indicates low probability for Israel to fully annex the West Bank by 2045.
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in the Russia-Ukraine war?
5.72%
Market YES
94%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $24K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 10.79% +5 pts
45/100
Low probability of a nuclear weapon being detonated in the Russia-Ukraine war.
Will Iran strike Pakistan by April 30, 2026?
10.5%
Market YES
90%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $130K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 13.05% +5 pts
60/100
Low probability of Iran striking Pakistan by April 30, 2026.
Will Extropic AI build thermodynamic computing hardware that runs an AI model faster/cheaper than GPU by 2030?
32.86%
Market YES
67%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 40.18% +5 pts
50/100
Market leans towards NO on Extropic AI achieving thermodynamic computing by 2030.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131