Markets / Geopolitics

🌍 Geopolitics Markets

3,140 live markets · AI Pulse Scores on every one

⚡ Top Edge 🎯 High Confidence 💰 Most Volume 🆕 Newest

Has Israel used recordings of crying children or distressed women to lure Palestinians out of hiding?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 15% +5 pts

The market indicates a low probability of Israel using recordings to lure Palestinians out.

Will Saudi Arabia and Israel announce the establishment of official diplomatic relations before the end of 2026?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 27.7% +5 pts

The market indicates a low probability for Saudi Arabia and Israel to establish diplomatic relations

Crypto currency retail trading will be banned in the USA before the end of 2027 due to use in war/terrorism/etc

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 16.85% +5 pts

Low probability of a U.S. ban on crypto retail trading by 2027 due to geopolitical concerns.

Will there be a ceasefire announced between US/Israel and Iran between 11th and 15th March 2026?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 12.38% +5 pts

Low probability of a ceasefire between US/Israel and Iran from March 11-15, 2026.

Israel wins Eurovision 2026?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 15% +5 pts

Israel has a low chance of winning Eurovision 2026 according to current market data.

Will a canal be created in the Strait of Hormuz using nuclear weapons?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 7.25% +5 pts

Low probability of a canal being created in the Strait of Hormuz using nuclear weapons.

Tesla certifies first tranche of 2025 CEO Performance Award by June 30, 2026?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 6.04% +5 pts

Market predicts low likelihood of Tesla certifying CEO Performance Award by June 2026.

Will Taiwan acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 12.85% +5 pts

Low probability for Taiwan acquiring nuclear weapons before 2031.

Will the war in Ukraine end before 2027?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 29.75% +5 pts

The market indicates a low probability for the war in Ukraine ending before 2027.

Will China invade Taiwan before 2027

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 24% +5 pts

The market indicates a low probability of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan before 2027.

Russia-Ukraine ceasefire before end of Iran War

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 31.39% +5 pts

Market sees low probability for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire before the Iran War ends.

Games Total: O/U 2.5

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 36.5% +5 pts

Market favors fewer than 2.5 games, with a higher probability for NO.

Will I get a girlfriend before I get an award on USAMO?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 23.98% +5 pts

Low probability of getting a girlfriend before winning a USAMO award.

[Metaculus] If there is an American AUMF or declaration of war against Iran before 2030, wil...l Tehran within one year?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 41.72% +5 pts

Market leans towards no conflict with Iran before 2030.

If NATO troops fight in the Ukraine war, will Russia use a nuclear weapon?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 30.01% +5 pts

Market leans towards Russia not using nuclear weapons if NATO intervenes.

Will the US have state-sanctioned death squads by Jan 20th 2029?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 28.94% +5 pts

The market indicates a low probability of state-sanctioned death squads in the US by 2029.

Will Iran strike Khurais Field by March 31?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 29% +5 pts

The market suggests a low likelihood of Iran striking the Khurais Field by March 31.

Will Iran strike Leviathan Field by March 31?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 27.5% +5 pts

Market suggests low likelihood of an Iranian strike on Leviathan Field by March 31.

Will the United States take military action against any other NATO member in 2026?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 16.04% +5 pts

Low probability of U.S. military action against NATO members in 2026.

Will Iran's govt change AND all US sanctions on Iran be lifted by 2030?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 33.74% +5 pts

Market leans towards no change in Iran's government and sanctions by 2030.

Will there be a >0 value liquidity event for me, a former Consensys Software Inc. employee, on my shares of the company?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 35.18% +5 pts

Market suggests low likelihood of a liquidity event for former Consensys employees.

WIll Dr Jonathan Sackner Bernstein (Parkinson's researcher) win a major medicine/biology award by mid 2036

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 14.14% +5 pts

Market predicts low chances for Dr. Sackner Bernstein to win a major award by 2036.

Will Ukraine have full control over Crimea by the end of 2030?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 12.52% +5 pts

Low probability for Ukraine to regain full control of Crimea by 2030.

100 US troop killed in action with Iran by April 2026?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 11.99% +5 pts

Market shows low probability of 100 US troops being killed in action with Iran by April 2026.

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