Markets / Geopolitics

🌍 Geopolitics Markets

3,140 live markets · AI Pulse Scores on every one

⚡ Top Edge 🎯 High Confidence 💰 Most Volume 🆕 Newest
Will Russia control 100% of donbass before 2027 ?
10.42%
Market YES
90%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 23.5% +5 pts
60/100
Market favors a NO outcome for Russia controlling Donbass by 2027.
Will Iran strike Oman again in March?
6%
Market YES
94%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $61K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 26.5% +5 pts
60/100
The market indicates a low probability of Iran striking Oman again in March.
Iran Government falls before end of March 2026
1%
Market YES
99%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $18K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 10.47% +5 pts
55/100
Low market probability suggests stability in the Iranian government until March 2026.
Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2027?
33%
Market YES
67%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $1K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 39.01% +5 pts
50/100
Market leans towards no military seizure of Taiwan's islands by 2027.
Nuclear war in next 5 years?
4.52%
Market YES
95%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $6K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 11.59% +5 pts
45/100
Low probability of nuclear war in the next 5 years, with market favoring a NO outcome.
USA x Iran ceasefire by end of march 31?
0.83%
Market YES
99%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $129K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 28.38% +5 pts
55/100
Market shows low probability for a USA-Iran ceasefire by March 31.
Will Russia nuke Ukraine before the end of 2026?
1.59%
Market YES
98%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $11K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 6.59% +5 pts
60/100
Low probability of Russia using nuclear weapons in Ukraine by 2026.
Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026?
13.56%
Market YES
86%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $5K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 18.56% +5 pts
60/100
Low probability of China seizing Taiwan's outlying islands by 2026.
At least one fatality from nuclear weapons in 2026?
6.1%
Market YES
94%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 16.01% +5 pts
55/100
Market suggests low likelihood of nuclear weapon fatalities in 2026.
1000 american troops inside Iran by EOY?
41%
Market YES
59%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $4K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 36.43% +5 pts
55/100
Market indicates low likelihood of 1000 American troops in Iran by year-end.
Will Russia deploy troops into Iran by end 2026?
12.95%
Market YES
87%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $3K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 17.71% +5 pts
60/100
Low probability for Russian troop deployment in Iran by 2026.
Will Iran shoot down a US military plane/helicopter by end of March?
2.89%
Market YES
97%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $206K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 27.45% +5 pts
55/100
Market indicates low likelihood of Iran shooting down a US military plane by March.
Will America declare war on Iran before the end of 2026
7.97%
Market YES
92%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 21% +5 pts
60/100
Low probability of America declaring war on Iran before 2026.
Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?
35.42%
Market YES
65%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $7K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 40.04% +5 pts
55/100
Market leans towards no export restrictions on gallium post-November.
Ww3 with nuclear
3.05%
Market YES
97%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $7K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 10% +5 pts
45/100
The market shows low probability for a nuclear World War 3 event.
Will Iran's regime fall before end of 2027?
38.03%
Market YES
62%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $11K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 38.44% +5 pts
50/100
The market indicates a low probability of Iran's regime falling by 2027.
Will Russia capture Kramatorsk at least once before EOY 2026?
21.92%
Market YES
78%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 26.79% +5 pts
60/100
Market indicates low probability of Russia capturing Kramatorsk by EOY 2026.
Will USA leave NATO by the end of 2026?
7%
Market YES
93%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $1K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 12.2% +5 pts
60/100
The market strongly favors the USA remaining in NATO through 2026.
Will Ali Larijani succeed Khamenei as the supreme leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran?
0.19%
Market YES
100%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $74K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 6% +5 pts
55/100
Low market probability suggests Larijani is unlikely to succeed Khamenei.
Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms?
6%
Market YES
94%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $30K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 10.11% +5 pts
60/100
The market indicates a low probability of China invading Taiwan before the 2026 midterms.
Will the Iranian regime be overthrown?
25.32%
Market YES
75%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $26K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 35.48% +5 pts
55/100
The market indicates a low probability of the Iranian regime being overthrown.
Will Bibi Netanyahu lose power during or in the aftermath after the 2023 Hamas-Israel War
20.22%
Market YES
80%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $1K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 25.22% +5 pts
55/100
Market indicates low probability of Netanyahu losing power amid ongoing conflict.
If the US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?
25.32%
Market YES
75%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $3K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 35.46% +5 pts
55/100
Market suggests low likelihood of Iran's regime falling if the US strikes by March 2026.
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
15.73%
Market YES
84%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $4K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 25% +5 pts
60/100
The market indicates a low probability of the Iranian regime falling by June 30.
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