Markets / Geopolitics

🌍 Geopolitics Markets

3,140 live markets · AI Pulse Scores on every one

⚡ Top Edge 🎯 High Confidence 💰 Most Volume 🆕 Newest
Will there be an end to hostilities between Russia and Ukraine before April 1, 2026?
2.18%
Market YES
98%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $4K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 7.18% +5 pts
60/100
The market indicates a low probability of hostilities ending by April 2026.
Games Total: O/U 2.5
0%
Market YES
100%
Market NO
Polymarket
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 33% +5 pts
60/100
Market favors fewer than 2.5 games, with a strong NO probability.
Will A.J. Ewart win the 2026 Valspar Championship?
0%
Market YES
100%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $7K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 5.45% +5 pts
55/100
A.J. Ewart is unlikely to win the 2026 Valspar Championship based on current odds.
Will there be a war over AI before 2035?
33.1%
Market YES
67%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 38% +5 pts
50/100
The market suggests a low probability of war over AI before 2035.
Will there be a civil war in the United States before 2030?
8.13%
Market YES
92%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $81K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 13.09% +5 pts
50/100
The market indicates a low probability of civil war in the U.S. before 2030.
Will J.D. Vance publicly criticize the decision to attack Iran before 2029?
33.26%
Market YES
67%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $9K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 38.26% +5 pts
50/100
Market suggests J.D. Vance is unlikely to criticize the Iran attack decision before 2029.
[ACX 2026] Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2027?
26.63%
Market YES
73%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $3K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 33.74% +5 pts
55/100
The market indicates a low likelihood of a bilateral ceasefire before 2027.
Will Benjamin Netanyahu ever be arrested, detained or face trial for war crimes?
10.8%
Market YES
89%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $18K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 15.8% +5 pts
45/100
The market shows low probability for Netanyahu facing legal consequences for war crimes.
Will a nuclear weapon be used militarily by the end of 2033?
15.2%
Market YES
85%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $5K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 19.19% +5 pts
50/100
Market suggests low likelihood of nuclear weapon use by 2033.
Conditional on Iran developing a nuclear weapon, will Iran nuke Israel?
28.34%
Market YES
72%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $3K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 33.16% +5 pts
45/100
Market favors no nuclear strike by Iran on Israel if it develops a weapon.
Conditional on Iran developing a nuclear weapon, will Iran pre-emptively nuke Israel?
12.45%
Market YES
88%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $4K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 19.46% +5 pts
45/100
The market indicates a low probability of Iran pre-emptively nuking Israel.
Will the United States officially withdraw from NATO by March 31, 2026?
1.38%
Market YES
99%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $23K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 6.62% +5 pts
60/100
The market strongly favors that the U.S. will not withdraw from NATO by 2026.
Will Israel invade Europe in 2050?
1%
Market YES
99%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $3K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 6% +5 pts
45/100
Low probability of Israel invading Europe by 2050.
Will the number of people employed as software developers in the US decline by more than 15% from 2023 to 2028?
35.71%
Market YES
64%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $3K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 40.71% +5 pts
50/100
Market suggests a low likelihood of a significant decline in software developer employment by 2028.
US defaults on debt held by China before 2027?
2.5%
Market YES
98%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $104K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 7.5% +5 pts
55/100
The market indicates a low probability of US defaulting on debt held by China before 2027.
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 9°C on March 23?
0.4%
Market YES
100%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 5.95% +5 pts
55/100
The market strongly favors a NO for Warsaw's temperature reaching 9°C on March 23.
Will China have a female leader before 2060?
19.87%
Market YES
80%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $3K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 24.87% +5 pts
50/100
Market indicates low likelihood of a female leader in China before 2060.
Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?
13.54%
Market YES
86%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $173K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 19.42% +5 pts
50/100
The market indicates a low probability of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by 2027.
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026?
6.84%
Market YES
93%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $14K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 12.14% +5 pts
60/100
Low probability of a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by China by 2026.
Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?
30%
Market YES
70%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $221K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 30% +5 pts
55/100
Market favors a NO outcome for Ukraine winning the war at 75%.
Will a U.S. Civil War occur before January 1st, 2027?
8.6%
Market YES
91%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $16K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 13.5% +5 pts
60/100
The market indicates a low probability of a U.S. Civil War occurring by 2027.
Will China invade Taiwan by EOY 2030
27.68%
Market YES
72%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 32.68% +5 pts
50/100
Market indicates a low probability of China invading Taiwan by the end of 2030.
Will Russia nuke Ukraine before the end of 2028?
4.14%
Market YES
96%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 9.14% +5 pts
50/100
Low probability of Russia using nuclear weapons in Ukraine by 2028.
Will a non-test nuclear weapon detonate by 2030?
20%
Market YES
80%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 26.82% +5 pts
50/100
Market indicates a low probability of a non-test nuclear weapon detonation by 2030.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131