Markets / Geopolitics

🌍 Geopolitics Markets

3,140 live markets · AI Pulse Scores on every one

⚡ Top Edge 🎯 High Confidence 💰 Most Volume 🆕 Newest
Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027?
39%
Market YES
61%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $1.7M
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 44.5% +3 pts
65/100
Market suggests a lower likelihood of Viking Therapeutics being acquired before 2027.
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027?
27%
Market YES
73%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $923K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 29% +3 pts
60/100
The market indicates a low probability of Lovable being acquired before 2027.
Will BP be acquired before 2027?
21.5%
Market YES
79%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $1M
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 29% +3 pts
60/100
Market leans towards BP not being acquired before 2027.
Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?
9.45%
Market YES
91%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $565K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 11.95% +3 pts
65/100
The market indicates a low probability of OpenAI being acquired before 2027.
Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027?
11.5%
Market YES
89%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $89K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 15.5% +3 pts
65/100
The market indicates a low probability of Anthropic being acquired before 2027.
Will Israel and Hezbollah have a major war before January 1st, 2030?
68.09%
Market YES
32%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $8K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 38% -3 pts
50/100
The market indicates a lower likelihood of a major war between Israel and Hezbollah before 2030.
Will the United States conduct a military strike against Cuba in 2026?
53.51%
Market YES
46%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $3K
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 45.22% -3 pts
55/100
The market shows a nearly even split on a potential U.S. military strike against Cuba in 2026.
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs Astralis (+1.5)
99.95%
Market YES
0%
Market NO
Polymarket
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 47% -3 pts
60/100
The market is evenly split on the outcome between LGC and Astralis.
Will USA change Iran regime
9.51%
Market YES
90%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $35K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 37.47% -3 pts
55/100
Market indicates low probability of a US regime change in Iran.
Will 5,000+ Gazans starve to death as a result of the current conflict?
64.35%
Market YES
36%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $39K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 44.49% -3 pts
55/100
Market indicates a slight chance of starvation among Gazans due to the conflict.
Mojtaba Khamenei Supreme Leader of Iran on July 1st, 2026
46.56%
Market YES
53%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 38.14% -3 pts
55/100
Market shows a higher probability for NO regarding Khamenei's leadership by 2026.
Will the US conduct ground operations in mainland Iran before Jan 1, 2027?
49.03%
Market YES
51%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $1K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 37.42% -3 pts
60/100
Market suggests low likelihood of US ground operations in Iran by 2027.
Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in March 2026?
1.75%
Market YES
98%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $113K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 44.45% -3 pts
55/100
Market leans towards Elon Musk posting fewer than 1400 tweets in March 2026.
Will Ukraine lose the Donbas region at the end of the Russo-Ukrainian war
45.42%
Market YES
55%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $122K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 43.18% -3 pts
45/100
Market indicates a slight belief Ukraine will retain the Donbas region.
Will a NATO aircraft shoot down a missile or drone fired towards a target in Ukraine before 2027?
37.56%
Market YES
62%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $1K
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 45.19% -3 pts
60/100
Market shows a near even split on NATO intercepting a missile or drone by 2027.
Will there be a war between Thailand and Cambodia before 2030?
44.42%
Market YES
56%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $1K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 41.42% -3 pts
50/100
Market indicates a low probability of war between Thailand and Cambodia before 2030.
Map Handicap: 3DMAX (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5)
0.05%
Market YES
100%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $1.3M
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 47% -3 pts
65/100
The market shows a balanced outlook for both teams in the match.
Map Handicap: FaZe (-1.5) vs Astralis (+1.5)
0.05%
Market YES
100%
Market NO
Polymarket
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 47% -3 pts
60/100
The market is evenly split on the outcome between FaZe and Astralis.
Game Handicap: YeS (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5)
99.95%
Market YES
0%
Market NO
Polymarket
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 47% -3 pts
60/100
The market shows a balanced outlook on the game handicap with equal probabilities.
Game Handicap: HEROIC (-1.5) vs Team Spirit (+1.5)
0.05%
Market YES
100%
Market NO
Polymarket
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 47% -3 pts
60/100
The market shows a balanced outlook for HEROIC and Team Spirit.
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5)
99.95%
Market YES
0%
Market NO
Polymarket
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 47% -3 pts
60/100
The market is evenly split on the outcome of AUR vs G2.
If China invades Taiwan will the invasion be successful? [No Survivorship Bias]
46%
Market YES
54%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $8K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 43% -3 pts
45/100
Market leans towards a failed invasion of Taiwan by China.
Safe to travel to Iran by EOY 2032?
48%
Market YES
52%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 45% -3 pts
45/100
Travel to Iran by the end of 2032 is viewed as unlikely by the market.
Will the US invade Iran before the end of 2026?
46.71%
Market YES
53%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $25K
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 47% -3 pts
60/100
The market shows equal chances for a US invasion of Iran by 2026.
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