Markets / Politics

🗳️ Politics Markets

2,843 live markets · AI Pulse Scores on every one

⚡ Top Edge 🎯 High Confidence 💰 Most Volume 🆕 Newest
Trump visits China before May 1, 2026?
2.61%
Market YES
97%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $7K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 66.7% -7 pts
55/100
Market favors a Trump visit to China before May 1, 2026, with a 73.7% probability.
Will Trump finish his second term?
77.49%
Market YES
23%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $1.4M
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 69.61% -7 pts
50/100
Market strongly favors Trump finishing his second term, but AI suggests some uncertainty.
Will Trump say "UK" or "United Kingdom" this week? (March 29)
100%
Market YES
0%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $472K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 71.5% -7 pts
55/100
Market predicts Trump is likely to say 'UK' or 'United Kingdom' this week.
Will Joe Biden Survive Until Inauguration Day 2029?
66.77%
Market YES
33%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $12K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 56.35% -7 pts
45/100
Market indicates a 63.35% chance Biden will survive until Inauguration Day 2029.
Hipkins+Luxon+Peters all leaders on day of next election?
52.91%
Market YES
47%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $10K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 58% -7 pts
55/100
Market favors all three leaders being in place for the next election.
Will Donald Trump be alive by 31 December 2026?
92.45%
Market YES
8%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $9K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 85% -7 pts
60/100
Market strongly favors Trump being alive by the end of 2026.
Will the next elected President of the USA serve the full term?
74.6%
Market YES
25%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 67.6% -7 pts
45/100
Market indicates a strong belief the next President will complete their term.
Will PLC win the third most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?
86.25%
Market YES
14%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $36K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 82.45% -7 pts
60/100
The market strongly favors PLC winning the third most seats in the 2026 election.
Will Talarico outperform Beto O'Rourke in the 2026 US Senate Election in Texas?
60.7%
Market YES
39%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $1K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 56.11% -7 pts
55/100
Market favors Talarico to outperform O'Rourke in the 2026 Senate race.
Will the president elected in 2024 complete his or her term?
77.14%
Market YES
23%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $4K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 70.14% -7 pts
45/100
The market indicates a strong belief the 2024 president will complete their term.
Will Joe Biden live through the next president's term end date?
59.24%
Market YES
41%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 58.27% -7 pts
45/100
Market suggests a higher probability of Biden living through the next term.
Will Donald Trump outlive Joe Biden?
71.71%
Market YES
28%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $12K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 66.89% -7 pts
45/100
Market favors Trump outliving Biden with a 73.89% probability.
Cúcuta Deportivo FC vs. AD Cali: O/U 1.5
100%
Market YES
0%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $10K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 67.5% -7 pts
60/100
Market favors over 1.5 goals in the match with a strong probability.
Will Joe Biden walk unaided to the helicopter on the South Lawn on his last day in office?
95.82%
Market YES
4%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $10K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 88.82% -7 pts
45/100
High probability that Biden will walk unaided to the helicopter on his last day in office.
Will Trump allow the US Mid-term elections to run in 2026?
87.29%
Market YES
13%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $3K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 86.13% -7 pts
55/100
Market strongly favors Trump allowing the 2026 Mid-term elections.
Will ECSA conduct a formal recount for the seat of Narungga in the 2026 SA Election?
97.5%
Market YES
3%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $6K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 84.31% -7 pts
55/100
High probability for a recount in Narungga for the 2026 SA Election.
[ACX 2026] Will Keir Starmer cease to be Prime Minister of the UK during 2026?
58.33%
Market YES
42%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $39K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 57.45% -7 pts
55/100
Market indicates a high probability that Keir Starmer will cease to be PM in 2026.
Will Trump say "Job" 15+ times during Memphis Roundtable?
67.5%
Market YES
33%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $3K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 60.5% -7 pts
60/100
Market favors Trump saying 'Job' 15+ times at the Memphis Roundtable.
Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?
60.36%
Market YES
40%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 53.36% -7 pts
45/100
Market shows a slight edge for Democrats in 2028 presidential election predictions.
Will Donald Trump be alive In November 2028?
78.67%
Market YES
21%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 71.67% -7 pts
45/100
Market shows a high probability that Donald Trump will be alive in November 2028.
Will Gavin Newsom run for president in 2028?
92.95%
Market YES
7%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $10K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 85.95% -7 pts
45/100
High probability suggests strong sentiment for Newsom's 2028 presidential run.
Will Donald Trump live till the end of 2028?
78.36%
Market YES
22%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $1K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 71.36% -7 pts
45/100
Market predicts high probability Donald Trump will live until the end of 2028.
One Nation gets at least 4 seats in the South Australian election?
96%
Market YES
4%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $87K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 73% -7 pts
55/100
Market favors One Nation to win at least 4 seats in South Australia.
Will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia at the end of 2028?
66.79%
Market YES
33%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $3K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 59.08% -7 pts
45/100
Market favors Putin's presidency in 2028, but there's notable undervaluation on the NO side.
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