Markets / Politics

🗳️ Politics Markets

2,843 live markets · AI Pulse Scores on every one

⚡ Top Edge 🎯 High Confidence 💰 Most Volume 🆕 Newest
If Trump is elected in 2024, will he be impeached again?
63.59%
Market YES
36%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $7K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 56.72% -7 pts
45/100
Market favors a second impeachment for Trump if elected in 2024.
Will Democrats control the US Senate any time after the 2024 elections and before the 2030 elections?
70.45%
Market YES
30%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $3K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 55.62% -7 pts
50/100
Market suggests a strong likelihood for Democrats to control the Senate post-2024 elections.
France changes Prime Minister before Macron's term ends?
95.9%
Market YES
4%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 88.9% -7 pts
45/100
High probability for a Prime Minister change in France before Macron's term ends.
If Trump is imprisoned before 2030, will he serve house arrest but NOT prison time?
71.72%
Market YES
28%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $1K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 64.72% -7 pts
45/100
Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 45/100. NO side may be undervalued.
Will there be ceasefires in the Ukraine/Russia and Israel/Hamas wars during the Trump presidency?
68.54%
Market YES
31%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 61.54% -7 pts
45/100
Market predicts a 68.54% chance of ceasefires during Trump's presidency.
Will Joe Biden live till the end of 2028?
62.08%
Market YES
38%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $13K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 55.08% -7 pts
45/100
Market shows a 62.08% chance Biden will live until the end of 2028.
🇺🇸🇮🇷 American boots on the ground in Iran by the end of Trump's term?
75.89%
Market YES
24%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $1K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 66.7% -7 pts
45/100
Market indicates a high probability of U.S. troops in Iran by end of Trump's term.
Will the midterm elections take place on November 3rd?
93.73%
Market YES
6%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $14K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 88.66% -7 pts
55/100
The market strongly believes the midterm elections will occur on November 3rd.
Will the next president be impeached?
63.59%
Market YES
36%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $4K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 56.72% -7 pts
45/100
There is a 63.72% chance the next president will be impeached.
Will Donald Trump be revealed to have a major medical condition before the end of his second presidential term?
76.51%
Market YES
23%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $4K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 69.51% -7 pts
50/100
High probability suggests belief in a major medical condition revelation for Trump.
Will King Charles III outlive Trump?
74.99%
Market YES
25%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 59% -7 pts
55/100
Market favors King Charles III outliving Trump, but the NO side is undervalued.
Will Donald Trump still be relevant in US politics by 2028?
85.31%
Market YES
15%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $30K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 78.31% -7 pts
50/100
Market shows high confidence in Trump's political relevance by 2028.
Will Trump be impeached by the House again in his 2nd term?
63.57%
Market YES
36%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $3K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 57.74% -7 pts
45/100
Market suggests a high probability of Trump being impeached again in his 2nd term.
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be candidate to the french presidential election in 2027
61.66%
Market YES
38%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 54.66% -7 pts
45/100
There's a 61.66% chance Mélenchon will run for president in 2027.
Will Trump be impeached again during his second term?
63.63%
Market YES
36%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $3K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 56.72% -7 pts
45/100
Market indicates a high probability of Trump facing impeachment again during his second term.
Will Donald Trump be impeached by the House of Representatives during his second term?
63.57%
Market YES
36%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $8K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 56.72% -7 pts
45/100
Market indicates a high probability of Trump being impeached during his second term.
Will Trump be impeached for a third (total) time during his second term?
65%
Market YES
35%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $18K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 57.16% -7 pts
45/100
Market leans towards a third impeachment of Trump during his second term.
Will Trump say "Rigged" or "Stolen" this week? (March 29)
100%
Market YES
0%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $472K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 72% -7 pts
55/100
High probability that Trump will say 'Rigged' or 'Stolen' this week.
Starmer Out as UK Prime Minister before 2028?
82.91%
Market YES
17%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $3K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 75.91% -7 pts
45/100
Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 45/100. NO side may be undervalued.
Will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia at the end of 2027?
83.35%
Market YES
17%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $17K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 76.19% -7 pts
45/100
High probability suggests confidence in Putin's presidency through 2027.
Will Trump say "Egg" this week? (March 29)
100%
Market YES
0%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $47K
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 54% -7 pts
55/100
Market shows a 61% chance Trump will say 'Egg' this week.
Will a Democrat be elected president in 2028?
59.11%
Market YES
41%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $7K
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 53.38% -7 pts
45/100
The market shows a slight edge for Democrats in the 2028 presidential election.
Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in March?
14.5%
Market YES
86%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $5K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 66.5% -7 pts
55/100
Market predicts a high likelihood of Trump speaking with Mohammed bin Salman in March.
Will a democrat win the 2028 presidential election?
59.11%
Market YES
41%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $4K
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 53.5% -7 pts
45/100
The market shows a close contest for the 2028 presidential election with a slight Democratic edge.
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