Markets / Politics

🗳️ Politics Markets

2,843 live markets · AI Pulse Scores on every one

⚡ Top Edge 🎯 High Confidence 💰 Most Volume 🆕 Newest
Will a Democrat be elected president in 2028?
59.11%
Market YES
41%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $7K
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 53.38% -7 pts
45/100
The market shows a slight edge for Democrats in the 2028 presidential election.
Will Trump say "Egg" this week? (March 29)
100%
Market YES
0%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $47K
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 54% -7 pts
55/100
Market shows a 61% chance Trump will say 'Egg' this week.
Donald Trump alive on January 20, 2029
84.95%
Market YES
15%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $5K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 76.39% -7 pts
45/100
Market indicates a high probability of Trump being alive on January 20, 2029.
Democrats win 2028 election?
59.11%
Market YES
41%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $3K
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 53.5% -7 pts
45/100
The market shows a slight edge for Democrats to win the 2028 election.
Will Republicans maintain control of the US Senate following the 2026 midterm elections?
52.75%
Market YES
47%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 46.25% -6.5 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: uncertain — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will Trump say "Hezbollah" or "Hamas" during Kentucky visit?
0.45%
Market YES
100%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $4K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 8.45% +6.5 pts
55/100
Low probability of Trump mentioning Hezbollah or Hamas during his Kentucky visit.
Will the United States Midterm Elections be free and fair?
32%
Market YES
68%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $1K
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 46.25% -6.5 pts
50/100
The market shows a slight lean towards the elections being free and fair.
Will there be an Asian-American President of the United States before 2060?
53.13%
Market YES
47%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 46.63% -6.5 pts
45/100
Pulse verdict: uncertain — confidence 45/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Iranian Regime survives Trump Administration?
59.37%
Market YES
41%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 52.87% -6.5 pts
40/100
Market indicates a higher chance of the Iranian regime surviving the Trump Administration.
Will Trump complete 85% or more of Project 2025 by the end of 2027?
50.3%
Market YES
50%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 43.8% -6.5 pts
45/100
Market shows a near-even split on Trump's completion of Project 2025 by 2027.
Will Ed Davey lead the Liberal Democrat party into the next General Election?
58%
Market YES
42%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 51.5% -6.5 pts
40/100
Ed Davey has a 58% chance of leading the Liberal Democrats into the next General Election.
Will the Republicans maintain a majority in the senate after the midterms
49.02%
Market YES
51%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 50.3% -6.5 pts
50/100
The market shows a slight edge for Republicans to keep the Senate majority.
Will Chuck Schumer announce he’s not running for reelection before EOY 2027?
59.44%
Market YES
41%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 52.94% -6.5 pts
55/100
Pulse verdict: uncertain — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will the new EU omnibus be passed by the European Parliament?
59.02%
Market YES
41%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 52.52% -6.5 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: uncertain — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
If Trump puts boots on the ground in Iran, will Dems win the Senate?
52.84%
Market YES
47%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 52.63% -6.5 pts
50/100
Market shows a slight lean towards Dems winning if Trump acts in Iran.
Will trump sign the release of UFOs files
55%
Market YES
45%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 48.5% -6.5 pts
50/100
Market shows mixed signals on Trump's potential UFO file release.
Will Trump say "Ceasefire" this week? (March 22)
59.5%
Market YES
41%
Market NO
Polymarket
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 47.5% -6.5 pts
50/100
Market shows a slight lean towards Trump saying 'Ceasefire' this week.
Will SCOTUS vote to overturn Mississippi's mail-in voting law?
56.19%
Market YES
44%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 48.67% -6.5 pts
50/100
The market shows a slight lean towards overturning the mail-in voting law.
Will Democrats win the 2026 Florida Special Senate Election?
50.99%
Market YES
49%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 44.49% -6.5 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will at least two Trump cabinet members leave office between Jan 20 and June 30, 2026?
76.3%
Market YES
24%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $1K
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 46.12% -6.5 pts
50/100
Market shows a slight lean towards at least two Trump cabinet members leaving by mid-2026.
Will the Democrats Outperform their 2018 Midterm Results? [Win more than 235 seats in 2026]
57.96%
Market YES
42%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 52.5% -6.5 pts
50/100
Market shows a slight edge for Democrats to outperform 2018 midterms.
Will Donald Trump and Xi JingPing meet in person in year 2027?
54.94%
Market YES
45%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 48.44% -6.5 pts
40/100
Pulse verdict: uncertain — confidence 40/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
If Labour wins the 2026 NZ general election, they are dependent on support from Te Pāti Māori to govern
54.75%
Market YES
45%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 48.25% -6.5 pts
50/100
Labour's potential reliance on Te Pāti Māori for governance in 2026 is closely contested.
Will independence supporting parties maintain a majority in the next Scottish Parliament Election?
58.42%
Market YES
42%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 48.22% -6.5 pts
50/100
Independence parties are slightly favored to maintain a majority in Scotland's next election.
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