Markets / Politics

🗳️ Politics Markets

2,843 live markets · AI Pulse Scores on every one

⚡ Top Edge 🎯 High Confidence 💰 Most Volume 🆕 Newest
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Presidential election?
12.34%
Market YES
88%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $8K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 17.82% +6 pts
45/100
Marco Rubio's chances of winning the 2028 election are currently low at 11.82%.
Will Trump be assassinated during his second term?
10.42%
Market YES
90%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $5K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 18.03% +6 pts
45/100
Market indicates low probability of Trump's assassination during his second term.
Will Tony Evers run for re-election as Governor of Wisconsin in 2026?
1.54%
Market YES
98%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 7.54% +6 pts
55/100
Market indicates low likelihood of Tony Evers running for re-election in 2026.
Will there be a Assassination attempt on Donald Trumps life before the the midterms
17.09%
Market YES
83%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $90K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 23.75% +6 pts
60/100
The market indicates a low probability of an assassination attempt on Donald Trump before the midter
Will US president Donald Trump visit Iran in 2026
7.96%
Market YES
92%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $1K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 13.36% +6 pts
55/100
Market shows low probability for Trump visiting Iran in 2026.
Will Trump wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? [High Liquidity]
3.79%
Market YES
96%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $1.4M
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 9.79% +6 pts
60/100
Market shows low confidence in Trump's chances for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize.
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be elected U.S. president in 2028?
5.28%
Market YES
95%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 11.2% +6 pts
45/100
Low probability for Ocasio-Cortez's presidential election in 2028.
Is Trump gay?
5%
Market YES
95%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $5K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 11% +6 pts
45/100
Market shows low probability for Trump being gay, with a slight undervaluation on the YES side.
Will Democrats control all 3 branches of government at once before 2030?
10.56%
Market YES
89%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $17K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 16.56% +6 pts
50/100
Market indicates low probability of Democrats controlling all branches by 2030.
Will Kamala Harris be elected President in 2028?
3%
Market YES
97%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 9.07% +6 pts
45/100
Kamala Harris has a low probability of being elected President in 2028.
Will Kamala Harris run for governor of California?
3.03%
Market YES
97%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $950K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 9.2% +6 pts
55/100
Market shows low probability for Kamala Harris running for governor of California.
Will Maduro remain president of Venezuela through 2026?
2.32%
Market YES
98%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $63K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 8.32% +6 pts
55/100
Market indicates low probability of Maduro remaining president through 2026.
Will Biden OR Trump die in 2026?
13%
Market YES
87%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $7K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 21.3% +6 pts
55/100
Market shows low probability for Biden or Trump dying in 2026.
Will the next President of the USA (elected in 2024) die before the end of their term in office.
18.46%
Market YES
82%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $3K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 24.46% +6 pts
50/100
Market shows a low probability of the next US President dying in office.
Will Trump attack Cuba before July 4, 2026?
19.67%
Market YES
80%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 24.77% +6 pts
60/100
Market shows low probability for a Trump attack on Cuba before July 4, 2026.
Will Trump announce before the midterms that US is pulling out of NATO?
18.35%
Market YES
82%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 19.9% +6 pts
60/100
Market indicates low probability of Trump announcing NATO withdrawal before midterms.
Will AOC be elected President in 2028?
6%
Market YES
94%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 12% +6 pts
45/100
AOC's chances of being elected President in 2028 are currently low at 6%.
Will AOC run for and be elected to Senate in the 2026 mid-term primaries?
3.63%
Market YES
96%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $1K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 9.63% +6 pts
55/100
Market shows low probability for AOC's Senate run in 2026.
Will the US be at war with Iran when Trump leaves office?
12.18%
Market YES
88%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $3K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 24.03% +6 pts
45/100
Market indicates low probability of US-Iran war during Trump's presidency.
Trump/US reaches a deal with Denmark to sell Greenland in 2026?
10%
Market YES
90%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 16% +6 pts
55/100
Market favors a NO outcome for Trump selling Greenland to Denmark in 2026.
Will Orbán Viktor's party win a supermajority of seats in the 2026 parliamentary election?
3.95%
Market YES
96%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $8K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 9.42% +6 pts
55/100
The market indicates a low chance of Orbán's party winning a supermajority in 2026.
$TRUMP $8 by the end of the March
1%
Market YES
99%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $10K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 10.27% +6 pts
55/100
Market shows low confidence in $TRUMP reaching $8 by March end.
Will Ron DeSantis be the Republican nominee for president in 2028?
3.77%
Market YES
96%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $7K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 9.77% +6 pts
45/100
DeSantis has a low chance of being the Republican nominee for president in 2028.
Will Ron Desantis be the Republican nominee for president in 2028?
3.77%
Market YES
96%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $5K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 9.77% +6 pts
45/100
Low probability for Ron DeSantis as the 2028 Republican nominee.
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