Markets / Politics

🗳️ Politics Markets

2,843 live markets · AI Pulse Scores on every one

⚡ Top Edge 🎯 High Confidence 💰 Most Volume 🆕 Newest
Will Trump be assassinated during his second term?
10.42%
Market YES
90%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $5K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 18.03% +6 pts
45/100
Market indicates low probability of Trump's assassination during his second term.
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Presidential election?
12.34%
Market YES
88%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $8K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 17.82% +6 pts
45/100
Marco Rubio's chances of winning the 2028 election are currently low at 11.82%.
Will Donald Trump die during his term?
15%
Market YES
85%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $11K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 23% +6 pts
45/100
Market shows low probability of Trump dying during his term.
Will Gavin Newsom be elected President in 2028?
15.91%
Market YES
84%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $48K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 23.27% +6 pts
45/100
Gavin Newsom has a low chance of being elected President in 2028, with a 17.27% market probability.
Will Ghislane Maxwell be pardoned by Trump before 1/1/2029?
10.14%
Market YES
90%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $12K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 16.14% +6 pts
50/100
Market shows low probability for Trump's pardon of Ghislaine Maxwell by 2029.
Did Donald Trump have sex with Bill Clinton?
1.67%
Market YES
98%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $839K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 7.61% +6 pts
55/100
Market shows a strong belief that Trump did not have sex with Clinton.
The winner of the 2028 US election would be of Indian descent.
4.7%
Market YES
95%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $48K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 10.84% +6 pts
45/100
Low probability for an Indian descent winner in the 2028 US election.
Will Congress pass a bill by the end of Q1 2025 that mandates customer service operations to be located inside the USA?
7.98%
Market YES
92%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $5K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 19.69% +6 pts
60/100
Low probability of Congress passing a bill on US-based customer service by Q1 2025.
Will Trump's approval rating improve after 1 month of attacking Iran?
2.34%
Market YES
98%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $10K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 18.83% +6 pts
55/100
Market suggests low probability of Trump's approval rating improving after Iran attacks.
Will I ever get to see the Donald Trump "piss tape", as alluded to by the 2017 Steele Dossier?
10.65%
Market YES
89%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $4K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 16.65% +6 pts
50/100
The market indicates a low probability of seeing the Trump 'piss tape'.
Did Donald Trump have gay sex?
7.05%
Market YES
93%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $11K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 12.71% +6 pts
55/100
Market shows low probability for Trump having gay sex, with a slight undervaluation on the YES side.
Trump leaves office over Epstein files?
7%
Market YES
93%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 13% +6 pts
45/100
Market shows low probability for Trump leaving office due to Epstein files.
Will Donald Trump spend any time in prison before 2030?
6.52%
Market YES
93%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $7K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 12.52% +6 pts
50/100
Market shows low probability for Trump spending time in prison before 2030.
Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before the end of 2027?
1.15%
Market YES
99%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $44K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 7.14% +6 pts
50/100
Market shows low probability of Trump serving prison time before 2028.
Will Trump spend any time in prison before he dies?
9.81%
Market YES
90%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $43K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 15.81% +6 pts
50/100
Market shows low probability of Trump spending time in prison before death.
Will Trump be held under house arrest before he dies?
13.52%
Market YES
86%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $3K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 19.52% +6 pts
50/100
Market shows low probability for Trump being under house arrest before death.
Will Trump be impeached and removed from office during his second term?
5.7%
Market YES
94%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $6K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 11.38% +6 pts
45/100
The market shows low probability for Trump's impeachment and removal from office.
Clear evidence by June 1st 2026 that Donald Trump was treated with Leqembi
6.07%
Market YES
94%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $4K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 12.07% +6 pts
55/100
Low probability of evidence showing Trump was treated with Leqembi by June 2026.
Will Peter Magyar be arrested before the 2026 elections in Hungary?
4.77%
Market YES
95%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $5K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 10.77% +6 pts
60/100
Low probability of Peter Magyar's arrest before the 2026 elections.
Will Donald Trump ban commerce with Spain?
7.99%
Market YES
92%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 15.46% +6 pts
55/100
The market shows a low probability for Trump banning commerce with Spain.
Will Jair Bolsonaro be a candidate for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
4.84%
Market YES
95%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 10.84% +6 pts
55/100
Market suggests low likelihood of Bolsonaro running in 2026 election.
Trump dies in 2026.
7%
Market YES
93%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $3K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 16% +6 pts
45/100
Market suggests low probability for Trump's death in 2026.
Will Jair Bolsonaro run for the Senate in 2026?
4.17%
Market YES
96%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 10.17% +6 pts
55/100
Market shows low probability for Bolsonaro running for Senate in 2026.
Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump pass away while serving their second presidential term?
16.92%
Market YES
83%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 22.92% +6 pts
45/100
Market indicates low probability of either Biden or Trump passing away in office.
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