Markets / Politics

🗳️ Politics Markets

2,843 live markets · AI Pulse Scores on every one

⚡ Top Edge 🎯 High Confidence 💰 Most Volume 🆕 Newest
If the Dems win enough seats in the midterms, will Trump be impeached?
74%
Market YES
26%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 65.39% -9 pts
50/100
Market indicates a high probability of Trump's impeachment if Dems gain seats.
Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in March?
52.95%
Market YES
47%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $59K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 75% -9 pts
50/100
There is a high probability that Trump will speak with Rutte in March.
Do you think DMK will win in the Tamilnadu state election?
77.39%
Market YES
23%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 68.39% -9 pts
50/100
DMK is favored to win the Tamil Nadu state election with a 77.39% probability.
Will Mark Su get >100 votes in the IL-9 Republican primary?
87.77%
Market YES
12%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 78.77% -9 pts
55/100
Market indicates high confidence Mark Su will receive over 100 votes.
To Lam to become the next president of Vietnam, in addition to being General Secretary
93.54%
Market YES
6%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 84.54% -9 pts
50/100
High probability for Lam to become Vietnam's next president alongside his General Secretary role.
Will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia at the end of 2026?
89.16%
Market YES
11%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 80.35% -9 pts
50/100
High probability suggests Putin will remain President of Russia until the end of 2026.
Will Trump talk to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in March?
4.45%
Market YES
96%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $7K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 62% -9 pts
50/100
There's a 71% chance Trump will talk to Zelenskyy in March.
Will Trump be impeached a 3rd time while in his second term in office?
63.68%
Market YES
36%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 55.74% -9 pts
40/100
Market indicates a strong belief in Trump's potential third impeachment during his second term.
President of Cuba Miguel Diaz Canel deposed by 2030
84.7%
Market YES
15%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $1K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 66.12% -9 pts
40/100
High probability of Miguel Diaz Canel being deposed by 2030.
Will Pierre Pollievre be leader of the Conservatives on the date of the next election?
70.63%
Market YES
29%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 61.63% -9 pts
40/100
Pollievre is favored to remain Conservative leader by the next election.
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?
2.15%
Market YES
98%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $1.3M
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 59.5% -9 pts
50/100
Market indicates a strong likelihood of Trump speaking with Xi in March.
Trump gets impeached by January 20, 2029
63.34%
Market YES
37%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 53.95% -9 pts
40/100
Market suggests a 63% chance of Trump being impeached by January 2029.
Will the Trump administration restrict or control voting by midterms?
74.1%
Market YES
26%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 65.1% -9 pts
50/100
Market indicates a high probability of voting restrictions by the Trump administration.
Will any incumbent U.S. Senator lose renomination in the 2026 US senate primaries?
74.04%
Market YES
26%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 66.3% -9 pts
50/100
High probability of incumbent U.S. Senators losing renomination in 2026 primaries.
Will Donald Trump announce a new cabinet member before 1 July 2026?
89.6%
Market YES
10%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 80.6% -9 pts
55/100
Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will there ever be a president of the USA born in the 80s?
71.68%
Market YES
28%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 62.68% -9 pts
40/100
There is a strong belief that a president born in the 1980s will emerge.
Will either Rubio or Vance be the 2028 Republican nominee for president?
75.56%
Market YES
24%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 66.56% -9 pts
40/100
Market favors Rubio or Vance as the 2028 GOP nominee with a 75.56% probability.
Will President Trump put "boots on the ground" in Iran before July 4, 2026?
71.92%
Market YES
28%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $1K
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 51.31% -9 pts
55/100
Market shows a higher probability for Trump deploying troops in Iran by July 2026.
Will Switzerland vote to allow usage of nuclear energy again?
68%
Market YES
32%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 56% -9 pts
40/100
Switzerland has a 65% chance of voting to allow nuclear energy again.
Will Trump get impeached by the House before the end of his 2nd term?
64%
Market YES
36%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 55% -9 pts
45/100
Market indicates a 64% chance of Trump being impeached by the House before his term ends.
Will Trump attack Cuba by the end of his term?
66.18%
Market YES
34%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 57.23% -9 pts
40/100
Market suggests a high probability of Trump attacking Cuba before his term ends.
US Senate 2026 """Safe""" Parlay
79.63%
Market YES
20%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 70.63% -9 pts
50/100
The market indicates a strong likelihood for a 'Safe' outcome in the 2026 US Senate race.
Will the Republicans Gain Maine´s 2nd Congressional District in 2026
69.65%
Market YES
30%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 60.65% -9 pts
50/100
The market suggests a strong likelihood of Republicans gaining Maine's 2nd District in 2026.
IF democrats win the house, will Hakeem Jeffries be their speaker?
75.76%
Market YES
24%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 66.76% -9 pts
50/100
Market favors Hakeem Jeffries as House Speaker if Democrats win.
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