Markets / Politics

🗳️ Politics Markets

2,843 live markets · AI Pulse Scores on every one

⚡ Top Edge 🎯 High Confidence 💰 Most Volume 🆕 Newest
Will I ever get to see the Donald Trump "piss tape", as alluded to by the 2017 Steele Dossier?
10.65%
Market YES
89%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $4K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 16.65% +6 pts
50/100
The market indicates a low probability of seeing the Trump 'piss tape'.
The winner of the 2028 US election would be of Indian descent.
4.7%
Market YES
95%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $48K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 10.84% +6 pts
45/100
Low probability for an Indian descent winner in the 2028 US election.
Did Donald Trump have sex with Bill Clinton?
1.67%
Market YES
98%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $839K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 7.61% +6 pts
55/100
Market shows a strong belief that Trump did not have sex with Clinton.
Will Trump and Xi meet as scheduled on March 31st?
1.21%
Market YES
99%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $5K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 16.22% +6 pts
55/100
Market indicates low probability of Trump and Xi meeting on March 31st.
Will Donald Trump serve time under House Arrest before 2027?
1.63%
Market YES
98%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $8K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 8.2% +6 pts
60/100
Market shows low probability for Trump serving house arrest before 2027.
WILL DONALD TRUMP INVADE MEXICO BEFORE 2029?
14.79%
Market YES
85%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $3K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 20.79% +6 pts
50/100
Market shows low probability for Trump invading Mexico before 2029.
Trump proclaims a 'Straight Pride month' by August 2026?
10%
Market YES
90%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $1K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 16% +6 pts
55/100
Market shows low probability for Trump declaring a 'Straight Pride month' by August 2026.
Trump Publicly comes Out As LGBTQ by The end of 2028
5.42%
Market YES
95%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $1K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 11.42% +6 pts
45/100
Market shows low probability for Trump coming out as LGBTQ by 2028.
Will Trump say "Migrant Crime" this week? (March 22)
14%
Market YES
86%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $3K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 12% +6 pts
55/100
Market favors 'NO' on Trump saying 'Migrant Crime' this week.
Will Donald Trump die of assassination?
13.91%
Market YES
86%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $9K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 19.91% +6 pts
45/100
Market indicates low probability of Trump's assassination.
Republicans win a 2026 US Senate election in a state Kamala won?(excluding maine)
18.49%
Market YES
82%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 18.72% +6 pts
55/100
Market favors Democrats winning the 2026 Senate election in a state Kamala Harris won.
Will prominent rationalists judge that Trump's second term was the most positively impactful term in the last 68 years?
2.59%
Market YES
97%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $482K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 8.59% +6 pts
45/100
Low probability of rationalists judging Trump's second term as the most impactful in 68 years.
Will Trump's approval rating be above 40% at the end of his second term?
16.53%
Market YES
83%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $8K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 23.16% +6 pts
45/100
Market indicates low probability for Trump's approval rating to exceed 40% at term's end.
Trump seriously attempts 3rd term in 2028?
19.38%
Market YES
81%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $160K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 23.93% +6 pts
45/100
Market indicates low probability of Trump attempting a 3rd term in 2028.
Will Trump Die Before June 30th 2026
4.83%
Market YES
95%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 10.43% +6 pts
60/100
Market indicates low probability of Trump dying before June 30, 2026.
Will Trump Pardon SBF by the end of January 2029?
15.53%
Market YES
84%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $3K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 20.94% +6 pts
50/100
The market shows a low probability of Trump pardoning SBF by January 2029.
Will Democrats win the Mar A Lago(Trump Residence) District- Florida State House District 87? Election this Tuesday!
74.3%
Market YES
26%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $4K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 24.77% +6 pts
55/100
Democrats have a low chance of winning Florida's District 87 with current probabilities favoring Rep
One Nation gets at least 5 seats in the South Australian election?
1.89%
Market YES
98%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $8K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 16.02% +6 pts
55/100
The market indicates a low probability for One Nation to secure at least 5 seats.
Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2028?
2.36%
Market YES
98%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $13K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 8.36% +6 pts
45/100
Market shows low probability for Trump as 2028 GOP nominee.
Trump "involved in the appointment" of Iran's next top executive
19%
Market YES
81%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $1K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 25% +6 pts
45/100
Market shows low probability of Trump influencing Iran's next executive appointment.
Will Trump give himself the Medal of Honor while in office?
12%
Market YES
88%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $4K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 18% +6 pts
45/100
Market suggests low likelihood of Trump awarding himself the Medal of Honor.
Will Pritzker, Newsome, or any other state governor attempt to have the state police arrest ICE agents by July 2026?
17.55%
Market YES
82%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $4K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 23.55% +6 pts
60/100
Low probability for governors attempting to arrest ICE agents by July 2026.
Will the majority of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?
5.12%
Market YES
95%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $8K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 11.54% +6 pts
50/100
The market indicates a strong belief that Western democracies will remain democratic by 2034.
Harris wins 2028 election?
3.55%
Market YES
96%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $188K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 9.55% +6 pts
45/100
Market shows low confidence in Harris winning the 2028 election.
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