Markets / Politics

🗳️ Politics Markets

2,843 live markets · AI Pulse Scores on every one

⚡ Top Edge 🎯 High Confidence 💰 Most Volume 🆕 Newest
Will the majority of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?
5.12%
Market YES
95%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $8K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 11.54% +6 pts
50/100
The market indicates a strong belief that Western democracies will remain democratic by 2034.
Will Trump's approval rating be above 40% at the end of his second term?
16.53%
Market YES
83%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $8K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 23.16% +6 pts
45/100
Market indicates low probability for Trump's approval rating to exceed 40% at term's end.
Trump seriously attempts 3rd term in 2028?
19.38%
Market YES
81%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $160K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 23.93% +6 pts
45/100
Market indicates low probability of Trump attempting a 3rd term in 2028.
Will Trump Die Before June 30th 2026
4.83%
Market YES
95%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 10.43% +6 pts
60/100
Market indicates low probability of Trump dying before June 30, 2026.
Will Trump Pardon SBF by the end of January 2029?
15.53%
Market YES
84%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $3K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 20.94% +6 pts
50/100
The market shows a low probability of Trump pardoning SBF by January 2029.
Will Democrats win the Mar A Lago(Trump Residence) District- Florida State House District 87? Election this Tuesday!
74.3%
Market YES
26%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $4K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 24.77% +6 pts
55/100
Democrats have a low chance of winning Florida's District 87 with current probabilities favoring Rep
One Nation gets at least 5 seats in the South Australian election?
1.89%
Market YES
98%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $8K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 16.02% +6 pts
55/100
The market indicates a low probability for One Nation to secure at least 5 seats.
Will prominent rationalists judge that Trump's second term was the most positively impactful term in the last 68 years?
2.59%
Market YES
97%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $482K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 8.59% +6 pts
45/100
Low probability of rationalists judging Trump's second term as the most impactful in 68 years.
Will Donald Trump be the Republican party nominee in the 2028 US presidential election?
2.36%
Market YES
98%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $14K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 8.36% +6 pts
45/100
Low probability for Trump as the 2028 Republican nominee.
Harris wins 2028 election?
3.55%
Market YES
96%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $188K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 9.55% +6 pts
45/100
Market shows low confidence in Harris winning the 2028 election.
Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2028?
2.36%
Market YES
98%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $13K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 8.36% +6 pts
45/100
Market shows low probability for Trump as 2028 GOP nominee.
Will Pritzker, Newsome, or any other state governor attempt to have the state police arrest ICE agents by July 2026?
17.55%
Market YES
82%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $4K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 23.55% +6 pts
60/100
Low probability for governors attempting to arrest ICE agents by July 2026.
Will Trump give himself the Medal of Honor while in office?
12%
Market YES
88%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $4K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 18% +6 pts
45/100
Market suggests low likelihood of Trump awarding himself the Medal of Honor.
Trump "involved in the appointment" of Iran's next top executive
19%
Market YES
81%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $1K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 25% +6 pts
45/100
Market shows low probability of Trump influencing Iran's next executive appointment.
Will Syria hold legitimate national leadership elections before the end of 2026?
15.47%
Market YES
85%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $5K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 21.47% +6 pts
60/100
Syria is unlikely to hold legitimate elections by 2026, with a high probability against it.
Did Donald Trump have Jeffrey Epstein killed?
17.51%
Market YES
82%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $1K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 20.79% +6 pts
45/100
Market leans towards NO on Trump's involvement in Epstein's death.
If Trump wins the 2024 US presidential election, will cannabis be decriminalized or legalized by the midterms?
19%
Market YES
81%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 25% +6 pts
55/100
Market favors NO on cannabis decriminalization if Trump wins in 2024.
Will Trump's approval rating return to 47%+ before his second term ends?
8.64%
Market YES
91%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $5K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 12.04% +6 pts
50/100
Market shows low probability for Trump's approval rating to reach 47%+ before term ends.
Will JD Vance and Gavin Newsom face each other in the 2028 Presidential Election
14.55%
Market YES
85%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 20.58% +6 pts
45/100
Low probability for Vance and Newsom facing off in 2028 Presidential Election.
Will Trump apologize for bombing Iranian school?
1%
Market YES
99%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $86K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 12.89% +6 pts
55/100
Market shows low probability for Trump to apologize for bombing an Iranian school.
Will Trump restrict porn?
13.16%
Market YES
87%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $12K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 19.16% +6 pts
45/100
Market favors 'NO' on Trump restricting porn, but AI sees a slight chance for 'YES'.
Will the US acquire new territory during Trump’s second term?
18%
Market YES
82%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $11K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 24% +6 pts
45/100
The market suggests low probability for US acquiring new territory during Trump's second term.
Will two Republicans win in California's June 2026 gubernatorial primary?
10%
Market YES
90%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $4K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 16% +6 pts
55/100
The market shows a low probability for two Republicans winning in California's 2026 primary.
Trump breaks the two term limit
10%
Market YES
90%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $12K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 14.1% +6 pts
45/100
The market shows a low probability for Trump breaking the two-term limit.
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