Markets / Politics

🗳️ Politics Markets

2,843 live markets · AI Pulse Scores on every one

⚡ Top Edge 🎯 High Confidence 💰 Most Volume 🆕 Newest
Will the US President or UK Prime Minister confirm the existence of Non-Human Intelligence (NHI) before the end of 2026?
13.19%
Market YES
87%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $3K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 19.19% +6 pts
60/100
Low probability for NHI confirmation by US or UK leaders before 2026.
Will Trump take back the Panama Canal?
10.16%
Market YES
90%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $76K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 20.78% +6 pts
45/100
The market indicates a low probability of Trump reclaiming the Panama Canal.
Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump be elected President in 2028?
2.45%
Market YES
98%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $6K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 8.45% +6 pts
45/100
Low probability for Biden or Trump winning in 2028, with a slight undervaluation on YES side.
Will Nicolás Maduro still be president on the March equinox in 2026?
1%
Market YES
99%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $14K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 8.48% +6 pts
55/100
Market indicates low probability of Maduro remaining president by March 2026.
Will Keir Starmer be UK Prime Minister at the end of 2030?
10%
Market YES
90%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $5K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 16% +6 pts
45/100
Market shows low confidence in Keir Starmer becoming PM by 2030.
Will Trump flee to Russia?
5%
Market YES
95%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $4K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 11% +6 pts
55/100
Market suggests low likelihood of Trump fleeing to Russia.
Will the democrats win the 2026 Alabama governor election?
10.24%
Market YES
90%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $1K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 13.39% +6 pts
55/100
Democrats have a low chance of winning the 2026 Alabama governor election.
Trump's first cabinet member fired, failed, or resigned Marco Rubio?
1.79%
Market YES
98%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 7.79% +6 pts
45/100
Market shows low probability for Marco Rubio being the first cabinet member fired or resigning.
Will JD Vance assume presidential powers in 2026?
13.96%
Market YES
86%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $9K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 20.91% +6 pts
55/100
Market shows low probability for JD Vance assuming presidential powers in 2026.
Will the Trump administration militarize Los Angeles again before the 2026 Midterms?
15.7%
Market YES
84%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 21.7% +6 pts
60/100
The market indicates a low probability of the Trump administration militarizing Los Angeles before 2
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French Presidential Election?
10.41%
Market YES
90%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $20K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 16.41% +6 pts
45/100
Marine Le Pen has a low chance of winning the 2027 French Presidential Election.
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 presidential election and be sworn in for a third term?
2.65%
Market YES
97%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $18K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 8.65% +6 pts
55/100
Market shows low probability for Trump winning the 2028 election.
Will the SAVE Act be enacted before the 2026 US elections
11%
Market YES
89%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $12K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 16.91% +6 pts
60/100
The market indicates a low probability of the SAVE Act being enacted before the 2026 elections.
Will Donald Trump die by April 1
1%
Market YES
99%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $14K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 8.57% +6 pts
60/100
Market indicates low probability of Donald Trump's death by April 1.
Will the U.S. Supreme Court hold Trump or a member of his Cabinet in contempt?
8.23%
Market YES
92%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $27K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 14.23% +6 pts
45/100
Low probability for contempt ruling against Trump or his Cabinet.
Will another Trump cabinet member be fired before April 2026?
1.37%
Market YES
99%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 15% +6 pts
60/100
Market suggests low likelihood of another Trump cabinet member being fired before April 2026.
U.S. federal government announces delay or suspension of 2026 midterm elections before November 3, 2026
5.35%
Market YES
95%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $24K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 11.35% +6 pts
55/100
Market shows low probability for election delays or suspensions in 2026.
US birth rate increases by over 10% during Trump's presidency.
11.44%
Market YES
89%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $6K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 17.44% +6 pts
45/100
Market indicates low probability of a significant birth rate increase during Trump's presidency.
Will Donald Trump either serve a third term or run for U.S. President in an election held after 2028?
12.36%
Market YES
88%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $15K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 18.36% +6 pts
45/100
Market indicates low likelihood of Trump serving a third term or running after 2028.
Will a Democratic member of congress be forced out?
6.22%
Market YES
94%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $4K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 12.22% +6 pts
55/100
Low probability of a Democratic congress member being forced out, but AI sees a slightly higher chan
Will Vivek Ramaswamy Hold an Official Position in Trump’s White House?
9.81%
Market YES
90%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $42K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 15.81% +6 pts
45/100
Low probability for Ramaswamy holding a position in Trump's White House.
Will Elon Musk successfully defeat at least 5 Republicans in 2026?
8.76%
Market YES
91%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $5K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 14.76% +6 pts
55/100
Market suggests low confidence in Musk defeating 5 Republicans in 2026.
Any of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins 10%+ of vote for a Congressional seat in 2026?
3.97%
Market YES
96%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $5K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 9.97% +6 pts
55/100
Low probability for Musk's candidates to secure 10%+ of the vote in 2026 Congressional races.
Will Melania say "Challenge" during Fostering the Future Together event on March 24?
0.5%
Market YES
100%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $3K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 25% +6 pts
60/100
Market favors 'NO' for Melania saying 'Challenge' at the event.
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