Markets / Politics

🗳️ Politics Markets

2,843 live markets · AI Pulse Scores on every one

⚡ Top Edge 🎯 High Confidence 💰 Most Volume 🆕 Newest
To Lam to become the next president of Vietnam, in addition to being General Secretary
93.54%
Market YES
6%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 84.54% -9 pts
50/100
High probability for Lam to become Vietnam's next president alongside his General Secretary role.
Democratic House seats after 2026 election? (200-250, linear)
60.79%
Market YES
39%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 51.79% -9 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: uncertain — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will Trump say "Fake news" during Memphis Roundtable?
68.5%
Market YES
32%
Market NO
Polymarket
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 59.5% -9 pts
55/100
Market leans towards Trump saying 'Fake news' at the Memphis Roundtable.
Will Donald Trump announce a new cabinet member before 1 July 2026?
89.6%
Market YES
10%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 80.6% -9 pts
55/100
Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will there ever be a president of the USA born in the 80s?
71.68%
Market YES
28%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 62.68% -9 pts
40/100
There is a strong belief that a president born in the 1980s will emerge.
Will the Australian Labor Party win a majority of seats in the House of Representatives at the next federal election?
68.14%
Market YES
32%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 59.14% -9 pts
40/100
The Australian Labor Party has a 68.14% chance of winning a majority in the next election.
Will there ever be a president of the USA born in the 90s?
70.51%
Market YES
29%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 61.51% -9 pts
40/100
There is a 70.51% chance a future U.S. president will be born in the 1990s.
Will a member of Generation X become president of the United States?
87.95%
Market YES
12%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 78.95% -9 pts
40/100
High probability for a Generation X member to become U.S. president.
Will the democratic party win the 2026 california gubernatorial election?
90.31%
Market YES
10%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 81.31% -9 pts
50/100
The Democratic Party is favored to win the 2026 California gubernatorial election.
Will Democrats win Tx-28?
74%
Market YES
26%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 65% -9 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will Trump attack Cuba by the end of his term?
66.18%
Market YES
34%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 57.23% -9 pts
40/100
Market suggests a high probability of Trump attacking Cuba before his term ends.
Will President Trump put "boots on the ground" in Iran before July 4, 2026?
71.92%
Market YES
28%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $1K
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 51.31% -9 pts
55/100
Market shows a higher probability for Trump deploying troops in Iran by July 2026.
Will Trump be impeached before Jan 20th 2029
63.72%
Market YES
36%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 55.16% -9 pts
45/100
Market indicates a 64.16% chance of Trump being impeached before January 2029.
Will the 47th President be impeached?
63.72%
Market YES
36%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 55.74% -9 pts
40/100
Market indicates a high probability of impeachment for the 47th President.
Will Wendy Williams outlive Joe Biden?
85.04%
Market YES
15%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 76.04% -9 pts
50/100
Wendy Williams has an 85.04% chance of outliving Joe Biden according to market data.
Will RFK Jr. have an official role in the Trump Administration at the start of 2027?
79.12%
Market YES
21%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 70.12% -9 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?
2.15%
Market YES
98%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $1.3M
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 59.5% -9 pts
50/100
Market indicates a strong likelihood of Trump speaking with Xi in March.
Will Trump say "Wind" or "Solar" this week? (March 22)
70.5%
Market YES
30%
Market NO
Polymarket
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 65.5% -9 pts
50/100
Market predicts Trump will say 'Wind' or 'Solar' this week with high probability.
Social Democrats win most seats in Sweden's 2026 election?
93.37%
Market YES
7%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 84.37% -9 pts
50/100
The Social Democrats are favored to win most seats in Sweden's 2026 election.
Will Dominique de Villepin be a candidate in the 2027 French presidential election?
66%
Market YES
34%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 57% -9 pts
50/100
Dominique de Villepin has a 66% chance of running in the 2027 French presidential election.
Will Donald Trump mention a Bering Strait crossing before the end of 2026?
68%
Market YES
32%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 59% -9 pts
55/100
There's a 68% chance Trump will mention a Bering Strait crossing by 2026.
Will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia at the end of 2026?
89.16%
Market YES
11%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 80.35% -9 pts
50/100
High probability suggests Putin will remain President of Russia until the end of 2026.
Will TISZA party win the 2026 Hungarian elections and get 50%+1 member of the parliment and gain voting majority?
67.73%
Market YES
32%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 64% -9 pts
50/100
TISZA party has a 73% chance of winning a majority in the 2026 elections.
Will Trump talk to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in March?
4.45%
Market YES
96%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $7K
⚡ Pulse Score
YES AI: 62% -9 pts
50/100
There's a 71% chance Trump will talk to Zelenskyy in March.
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