Markets / Politics

🗳️ Politics Markets

2,843 live markets · AI Pulse Scores on every one

⚡ Top Edge 🎯 High Confidence 💰 Most Volume 🆕 Newest
Will Trump complete 85% or more of Project 2025 by the end of 2026?
5.56%
Market YES
94%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 24.38% +8 pts
55/100
Market indicates low confidence in Trump completing Project 2025 by 2026.
Will the US have a President not nominated by either Republican or Democratic party by 2050?
15.74%
Market YES
84%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 23.74% +8 pts
45/100
Low probability of a non-Republican or Democratic President by 2050.
Democrats have senate majority before 1 November 2026?
4.03%
Market YES
96%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 12.03% +8 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will there be a UK General Election in 2026?
8.24%
Market YES
92%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 17% +8 pts
50/100
The market indicates a low probability of a UK General Election in 2026.
Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act by April 30, 2026?
10.24%
Market YES
90%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 23.09% +8 pts
55/100
Market indicates low probability of Trump invoking the Insurrection Act by April 2026.
Will Harris English win the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open?
0.4%
Market YES
100%
Market NO
Polymarket
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 9.6% +8 pts
50/100
Harris English has a low chance of winning the 2026 Houston Open according to current predictions.
Will Slovenia hold a referendum on NATO membership or military expenditure by the end of April 2026?
1.32%
Market YES
99%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 9.32% +8 pts
55/100
Low probability for a referendum on NATO membership or military spending in Slovenia by April 2026.
Will Kristi Noem win the South Dakota Republican primary for Senate in 2026?
9.15%
Market YES
91%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 18.82% +8 pts
50/100
Kristi Noem has a low chance of winning the 2026 South Dakota Republican primary.
Pete Buttigieg will be the Democratic nominee for President in 2028.
5.35%
Market YES
95%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 13.59% +8 pts
40/100
Low probability for Pete Buttigieg as the 2028 Democratic nominee.
Will Donald Trump visit Hawaii in 2026?
11.5%
Market YES
89%
Market NO
Polymarket
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 19.5% +8 pts
50/100
Low probability for Trump visiting Hawaii in 2026, with a strong NO sentiment.
Will Trump face criminal charges relating to his involvement with Epstein?
11.36%
Market YES
89%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 19.36% +8 pts
50/100
Low probability of Trump facing charges related to Epstein, with market leaning towards NO.
Will Keir Starmer be UK Prime Minister at the end of 2031?
11.57%
Market YES
88%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 19.57% +8 pts
40/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 40/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will the 2026 California governor runoff be two Republicans?
9.78%
Market YES
90%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 17.51% +8 pts
50/100
The market strongly favors a non-Republican runoff in California's 2026 governor race.
Brazilian president's Supreme Court nomination rejected by Senate?
11.31%
Market YES
89%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 19.31% +8 pts
50/100
The Senate is likely to approve the Brazilian president's Supreme Court nomination.
Will Donald trump turn into a transgender lgbtq+ alien aka femboy and kill everybody in the world and resurrect epstein
2.87%
Market YES
97%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 10.87% +8 pts
50/100
The market overwhelmingly predicts NO on this unlikely scenario involving Trump.
Will Trump's attempt to run for the 3rd term be blocked by court(s)?
12.51%
Market YES
87%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 25.78% +8 pts
40/100
Market shows low probability of courts blocking Trump's 3rd term run.
Will Trump execute any political opponents in his second term?
7.71%
Market YES
92%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 15.71% +8 pts
40/100
The market indicates low probability for Trump executing political opponents in a second term.
In one year from now, will Manifold think Trump's March-April tariff shenanigans were good for America/Americans?
3.76%
Market YES
96%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 11.76% +8 pts
50/100
Market overwhelmingly believes Trump's tariffs won't be seen positively in a year.
will trump die before halloween ends?
6.57%
Market YES
93%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 14.57% +8 pts
55/100
Market indicates low probability of Trump dying before Halloween.
Will there be a military draft in the United States during Trump's second term, authorized by Congress?
7.24%
Market YES
93%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 15.24% +8 pts
40/100
Low probability of a military draft in the U.S. during Trump's second term.
will trump be assasinated in 2026
2.71%
Market YES
97%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $1K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 11.12% +8 pts
50/100
Low probability of Trump being assassinated in 2026 according to the market.
Any US president (current or former) is assassinated before 2030?
10.75%
Market YES
89%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 18.75% +8 pts
40/100
Market suggests low probability of a US president being assassinated before 2030.
Will Trump apologize for anything in 2026?
8.9%
Market YES
91%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 26.33% +8 pts
50/100
Market shows low probability for Trump to apologize in 2026.
On Nov 7, 2028, will there be >$1T of volume on the 2028 election Polymarket?
9.43%
Market YES
91%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 17.43% +8 pts
40/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 40/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
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