Markets / Politics

🗳️ Politics Markets

2,843 live markets · AI Pulse Scores on every one

⚡ Top Edge 🎯 High Confidence 💰 Most Volume 🆕 Newest
Any US president (current or former) is assassinated before 2030?
10.75%
Market YES
89%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 18.75% +8 pts
40/100
Market suggests low probability of a US president being assassinated before 2030.
Will Tucker Carlson endorse, or suggest voting for any Democrat in 2026?
12.82%
Market YES
87%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 20.37% +8 pts
50/100
Low probability for Tucker Carlson endorsing a Democrat in 2026.
Will Incumbent Republican Senator Bill Cassidy win the Republican Primary?
14.42%
Market YES
86%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 19% +8 pts
50/100
Bill Cassidy is unlikely to win the Republican Primary, with low market support.
Trump gives people cash from tariffs in 2026?
11.91%
Market YES
88%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 19.91% +8 pts
50/100
Market shows low probability for Trump giving cash from tariffs in 2026.
Will Ivanka Trump run in a presidential primary election before 2036?
11.05%
Market YES
89%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 19.05% +8 pts
45/100
Market indicates low likelihood of Ivanka Trump running for president before 2036.
Colorado Democratic Establishment Destroyed?
14.55%
Market YES
85%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 22.55% +8 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will Joe Biden and Dalai Lama meet in person in year 2026?
1.11%
Market YES
99%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 9.92% +8 pts
50/100
Low probability for a meeting between Biden and the Dalai Lama in 2026.
Will Joe Biden and Dalai Lama meet in person in year 2027?
1.12%
Market YES
99%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 9.46% +8 pts
40/100
Low probability for a Biden-Dalai Lama meeting in 2027.
Will Kristi Noem win the South Dakota Republican primary for Senate in 2026?
9.15%
Market YES
91%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 18.82% +8 pts
50/100
Kristi Noem has a low chance of winning the 2026 South Dakota Republican primary.
Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act by April 30, 2026?
10.24%
Market YES
90%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 23.09% +8 pts
55/100
Market indicates low probability of Trump invoking the Insurrection Act by April 2026.
Will there be a UK General Election in 2026?
8.24%
Market YES
92%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 17% +8 pts
50/100
The market indicates a low probability of a UK General Election in 2026.
Democrats have senate majority before 1 November 2026?
4.03%
Market YES
96%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 12.03% +8 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will Trump complete 85% or more of Project 2025 by the end of 2026?
5.56%
Market YES
94%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 24.38% +8 pts
55/100
Market indicates low confidence in Trump completing Project 2025 by 2026.
Democratic House Speaker before 30 November 2026?
10.1%
Market YES
90%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 18.1% +8 pts
50/100
Low probability for a Democratic House Speaker by November 2026.
Will Joe Biden and Benjamin Netanyahu meet in person in year 2028?
6.48%
Market YES
94%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 14.48% +8 pts
40/100
Low probability for a Biden-Netanyahu meeting in 2028.
Will the Trump-Xi April 2026 summit produce a bilateral trade agreement?
9%
Market YES
91%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 20.45% +8 pts
50/100
Low probability for a trade agreement at the Trump-Xi summit in April 2026.
Will Tom Steyer win the 2026 California gubernatorial election?
11.87%
Market YES
88%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 19.87% +8 pts
50/100
Tom Steyer has a low probability of winning the 2026 California gubernatorial election.
Will Trump's approval rating be higher on election day (Nov. 3, 2026) than it was in his first term (Nov. 6, 2018)?
14.46%
Market YES
86%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 22.46% +8 pts
50/100
Market suggests Trump's approval will likely be lower on election day than in 2018.
Will the NFP propose a single candidacy for the 2027 presidential election?
5.62%
Market YES
94%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 13.62% +8 pts
50/100
The market indicates a low probability for a single candidacy proposal by the NFP for 2027.
Will the US Senate pass the Digital Bill of Rights by June 30, 2026?
13.09%
Market YES
87%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 22.72% +8 pts
55/100
The market indicates a low probability for the Senate passing the Digital Bill of Rights by mid-2026
Trump launches Berlusconi Visa program?
19.5%
Market YES
81%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 27.5% +8 pts
40/100
Market leans towards NO for Trump launching a Berlusconi Visa program.
Trump confirmed to be bisexual?
19.38%
Market YES
81%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 27.38% +8 pts
40/100
Market shows low probability for Trump being confirmed bisexual.
Will Trump say "Gay" this week? (March 29)
100%
Market YES
0%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $15K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 22% +8 pts
50/100
Market indicates low likelihood of Trump saying 'Gay' this week.
Will Trump say "Kaitlan Collins" this week? (March 29)
3.7%
Market YES
96%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $4K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 21.5% +8 pts
50/100
Market suggests low likelihood of Trump mentioning Kaitlan Collins this week.
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